交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-30燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 6、预期：燃料油市场整体呈现区间震荡格局，充足的库存水平可能抑制现货估值的任何大幅上涨，多数码头供 应商正积极出清9月装船及10月供应的月末剩余货物，而上游原油受地缘事件冲击再度下行，对燃油价格带来较 大压力，预计今日低位运行。FU2601：2820-2880区间运行，LU2511：3360-3420区间运行 1、基本面：尽管调油原料供应充足，但贸易商预计符合规格的含硫0.5%低硫燃料油在下游船燃供应领域不会出 现过剩情况。不过自9月初以来，低硫燃料油裂解价差持续表现疲弱；高硫燃料油市场可能面临9月末到10月 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - China may announce the third batch of about 10 million tons of clean oil export quotas at the end of August or early September, with the overall export quota slightly higher than last year but lower than the previous expectation of 14 million tons [6] - High - sulfur supply and inventory in Asia remain high in the near - term. The supply pressure in the third quarter is slightly lower than expected, while the seasonal power - generation demand is gradually declining, and the feedstock demand is still supported. Low - sulfur fuel oil spot premiums continue to decline, with supply rising and no specific demand drivers [7] 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Related Data - **FU and LU Futures Data**: On August 28, 2025, the FU主力 price was 2823, up 2 from the previous day; the LU主力 price was 3494, up 9. The FU主力持仓 was 7.9 million hands, down 0.3 million hands; the LU主力持仓 was 7.3 million hands, up 0.2 million hands. The FU仓单 was 119,580 tons, unchanged; the LU仓单 was 35,110 tons, unchanged [3] - **Spread Data**: The FU10 - 1 spread was 30, down 1; the LU10 - 11 spread was - 14, down 14; the LU - FU主力价差 was 671, up 7; the FU10 - 外盘10 spread was 0.9, up 0.7; the LU10 - 外盘09 spread was 3.0, down 2.1 [3] Second Part: Market Analysis - **Important Information**: China may announce the third - batch clean oil export quotas at the end of August or early September, with an estimated volume of about 10 million tons, lower than the previous expectation of 14 million tons [6] - **Market Conditions**: High - sulfur supply and inventory in Asia remain high. Bombing of Russian refineries by Ukraine continues, affecting some refinery capacities. Mexican high - sulfur exports are declining, and US sanctions keep Middle - East high - sulfur exports low. High - sulfur power - generation demand is falling seasonally, but feedstock demand is supported. Low - sulfur fuel oil spot premiums are falling, with supply rising and no specific demand drivers [7] - **Additional Notes**: Singapore's high - sulfur Sep/Oct paper - cargo spread is 0.3 - 1.0 USD/ton, and the low - sulfur Sep/Oct spread is 1.5 - 2.5 USD/ton. The Chinese low - sulfur market has sufficient supply and stable demand, focusing on near - term quota adjustments and issuance rhythm [8][9] Third Part: Related Diagrams - The report includes diagrams of Singapore's high - sulfur and low - sulfur spot premiums, high - and low - sulfur price spreads, LSFO - GO spreads, and high - and low - sulfur fuel oil crack spreads [10]

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ has decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations, but the immediate impact on oil prices in Q3 is expected to be limited [1] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Decision - OPEC+ has made a decision to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day for August, which is higher than market forecasts [1] - Some oil-producing countries are currently producing above their target levels, and there are constraints from production compensation plans, leading to actual monthly increases being less than the targeted adjustments [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Price Trends - The Asian market has shown a subdued response to the OPEC+ production increase, with expectations that the demand for gasoline and jet fuel will support the increase during the peak demand season in Q3 [1] - After the peak season, if the U.S. continues its tariff policies, a return to OPEC+ production levels could negatively impact the fundamentals, potentially leading to a downward shift in oil prices [1] Group 3: Fuel Types and Demand Dynamics - High-sulfur fuel oil (FU) is experiencing weak performance due to low demand from shipping and deep processing, with a lack of support from summer power generation needs in the Middle East and North Africa [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) has limited supply pressure due to strong coking profits, but overall demand remains weak, leading to fluctuating prices [1] Group 4: Refinery and Inventory Insights - As of now, the shipment volume from 54 sample refineries has slightly decreased, with the year-on-year growth rate dropping from 8% to 7% [1] - Refinery inventories have increased by 15,000 tons, while social inventories remain stable compared to the previous week [1] Group 5: LPG Market and Chemical Demand - The international LPG supply is overall loose, and with OPEC's further production increase expected in August, overseas prices may come under pressure [1] - Recent maintenance has led to a decline in chemical demand, but lower import costs are helping to restore PDH margins, with attention on the rebound pace of PDH operating rates [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the fuel oil market, indicating that due to increased supply of arbitrage goods and inflow of blending components, the fundamentals of the low - sulfur fuel oil market in Singapore may face greater pressure in the coming weeks. With crude oil prices falling during trading and lack of positive news, fuel oil is expected to trade at low levels. The expected trading ranges are 2800 - 2860 for FU2507 and 3310 - 3370 for LU2506 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Increased supply of arbitrage goods and blending components may pressure the low - sulfur fuel oil market in Singapore. In April, the total open interest of the near - month contract for high - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore decreased by 11.32% month - on - month to 9.37 million tons, the third consecutive monthly decline [3]. - **Basis**: The basis for Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is $51/ton, and for low - sulfur fuel oil is $165/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of April 23, Singapore's fuel oil inventory was 25.989 million barrels, unchanged [3]. - **Market Trend**: Prices are below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3]. - **Main Position**: High - sulfur main positions have shifted from short to long, and low - sulfur main positions have shifted from long to short [3]. - **Expectation**: With crude oil prices falling during trading and lack of positive news, fuel oil is expected to trade at low levels. The expected trading ranges are 2800 - 2860 for FU2507 and 3310 - 3370 for LU2506 [3]. 3.2 Multi - Short Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Not clearly stated in the report. - **Bearish Factors**: Not clearly stated in the report. - **Market Driver**: The market is driven by the combination of uncertain supply - side production cuts and neutral demand [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Futures Price Changes**: The current price of the FU main contract is 2865, up 35 (1.24%) from the previous value; the current price of the LU main contract is 3371, up 62 (1.87%) from the previous value [5]. - **Spot Price Changes**: The current price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil is $488/ton, up $7 (1.46%) from the previous value; the current price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil is $495/ton, up $5 (1.02%) from the previous value. The current price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is $395.71/ton, up $9.32 (2.41%) from the previous value; the current price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil is $482.5/ton, up $10 (2.12%) from the previous value [6]. 3.4 Inventory Data - **Singapore Fuel Oil Inventory**: As of April 23, the inventory was 25.989 million barrels, unchanged from the previous period. The inventory has shown fluctuations in recent months [3][7].