美国时间2月20日（星期五），美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在椭圆形办公室签署行政命令，宣布对几乎所有进口商品加征10%的临时全球关税，并称该政策 将"立即生效"。 白宫随后确认，新关税将于2月24日凌晨12点01分（美国东部时间）正式实施。 此举依据的是《1974年贸易法》第122条，这是一项极少被启用的条款，授权总统在面临"短期国际收支失衡或贸易紧急状况"时，可单方面征收临时关税。 根据美国法律规定，此类关税若未经国会批准，最长仅可持续150天。 为减轻民生冲击，新政策设置了豁免清单，包括能源产品、自然资源、化肥、药品、部分电子产品、特定车辆、航空航天设备、信息材料及旅客随身行李； 食品类如牛肉和番茄也不在征税之列。 另得益于《美墨加协定》（USMCA），加拿大和墨西哥大部分商品继续享受免税待遇；符合《多米尼加-中美洲自由贸易协定》（CAFTA-DR）的纺织品和 服装也获豁免。 他同时在社交平台上写道："他们承认我作为总统几乎可以做任何事，就是不能征收关税。我可以'毁掉这个国家'，却不能向那些剥削我们的国家收一点小 钱，这太荒唐了！" 美国最高法院的裁决出炉后，全球出口商也并未因此松一口气。 据路透社证实，欧洲酒 ...

Core Viewpoint - The EU-India free trade agreement is seen as a significant breakthrough, providing the EU access to a large international market, which is welcomed by both the political and business sectors in Ireland [1]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The agreement will reduce tariffs on 99% of goods exported from the EU to India, benefiting Irish whiskey and certain food exports [1]. - In 2024, Ireland's total goods exports to India are projected to be slightly below €500 million, with machinery, pharmaceuticals, and chemicals being the main categories [1]. Group 2: Industry Specifics - The Irish Whiskey Association anticipates that the agreement will increase the sales of Irish whiskey in the Indian market, promoting diversification within the industry [1]. - Sales of Irish whiskey in India are expected to exceed 700,000 cases in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 57.5% and a 900% increase compared to 2020 [1].

（原标题：欧盟与印度的贸易协定发出了重要的政治信号） 《爱尔兰时报》1月27日发表评论文章，欧盟与印度已就贸易协定达成原则性共识，这是一个重要 的政治信号。与南方共同市场协定类似，欧盟此举旨在强调其对贸易协定、多元化和基于规则的贸易方 式的承诺，尤其是在特朗普的政策颠覆现有体系之际。 该协定在经济上也意义重大，尽管目前欧盟与印度的贸易额相对有限，如果该协议获得通过，贸易 额预计会逐步增长。欧盟汽车企业将获得更大的市场准入，但仍需受配额限制。一些与爱尔兰相关的领 域，包括药品和烈酒的关税将下调，爱尔兰威士忌有望成为重要受益者之一。 牛肉行业被排除在外，这使得爱尔兰很可能支持最终协议，尽管其全部条款的细节尚未公布。印度 与俄罗斯的密切关系可能会在欧盟内部引发一些政治阻力。 欧盟与南美国家和印度历经多年谈判达成的两项协议如今终于完成，这绝非巧合。这是在面对特朗 普威胁时，表明欧盟的贸易政策"一切照旧"。欧盟与美国去年达成的框架性贸易协议，因特朗普近期计 划就格陵兰岛问题征收关税而受到威胁，最终能否达成并实施仍有待观察。 对爱尔兰而言，贸易多元化至关重要。与对南方共同市场的立场截然不同，爱政府对与印度的协议 表示欢迎 ...

Core Insights - The Irish beverage industry is experiencing a modest growth in spirits exports, with a volume increase of 2.8% and a value increase of 11.8%, primarily driven by supply chain inflation [1] Export Performance - The largest market for Irish whiskey remains the United States, accounting for 40% of total whiskey exports, although sales to the U.S. declined by 3.5% last year [1] - Exports to Canada also saw a decrease of 3.6% [1] Market Trends - Despite facing challenges, the Irish spirits market is expected to show positive trends, with a notable success in India where sales surged by 57.5% due to the growth of affluent populations [1] - India has now surpassed the UK in the market ranking for Irish whiskey [1] Competitive Challenges - The recently signed UK-India free trade agreement will halve the tariff levels for UK spirits, while Irish whiskey and EU products will still face a 150% tariff in India, posing significant competitive challenges for Irish exports [1] - The Irish Beverage Association and the Irish Whiskey Association are advocating for the EU Commission to prioritize a free trade agreement with India to maintain competitiveness [1]

Core Insights - The IWSR report indicates a significant restructuring in the Asia-Pacific alcoholic beverage market, with an overall slowdown in growth, particularly in China where baijiu sales have declined by 5% while gin sales surged by 20% [1][6] Group 1: Market Overview - The total beverage alcohol (TBA) volume in the Asia-Pacific region is projected to decrease by 2% in 2024, with a 3% decline in total value [2] - Major categories such as beer (-3%), spirits (-2%), and wine (-4%) have all experienced value declines, while ready-to-drink (RTD) beverages saw a slight increase in sales (+1%) [2] - India stands out with a TBA growth of 6%, driven by a 19% increase in ultra-premium product consumption, contrasting sharply with China's 5% decline [2][5] Group 2: Regional Performance - The Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam recorded a TBA growth of 2%, while Japan (-1%), South Korea (-1%), and Australia (-3%) faced declines [2] - The Indian market is benefiting from a recent UK-India free trade agreement, which will significantly reduce import tariffs on Scotch whisky and British gin, fostering growth in these categories [5] Group 3: Category-Specific Trends - In India, there is a notable increase in the consumption of Irish whiskey (+58%) and vodka (+17%), indicating a shift in consumer preferences beyond traditional whiskey [5] - In China, the decline in key categories such as baijiu (-5%), cognac (-14%), and Scotch whisky (-8%) is attributed to reduced formal consumption occasions [6][8] - Gin and vodka are benefiting from the rising cocktail culture, with gin sales increasing by 20% and vodka by 4% in China [6] Group 4: Future Projections - IWSR forecasts that from 2024 to 2034, beer sales in China will remain stable, while RTDs are expected to grow at a CAGR of 2%, and sparkling wine at +5% [9] - The report predicts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% for Scotch whisky and 3% for gin in India from 2024 to 2029 [5] - The overall spirits category in the Asia-Pacific is expected to decline by 1% CAGR, but excluding baijiu, the growth rate is projected at +2% [9] Group 5: Wine and Beer Trends - The wine category in the Asia-Pacific region faced a 4% decline in 2024, an improvement from the 8% drop in 2023, with still wine and other wine categories contributing to the decrease [13] - Beer sales are expected to continue declining until 2026, with a projected recovery starting in 2027, particularly in India, Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines [14][16] Group 6: RTD Growth - RTDs are positioned for strong growth in the coming years, primarily driven by Japan and Korea, with a projected CAGR of +3% from 2024 to 2029 [17] - Japan is expected to be a key driver for RTD growth, while China, Korea, and India are also anticipated to see increases in this category [17]