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三峡能源(600905):短期业绩承压下滑,储备项目丰富支撑远期成长弹性
Huachuang Securities· 2025-09-03 08:11
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expected outperformance of 10%-20% relative to the benchmark index over the next six months [1][22]. Core Views - Short-term performance is under pressure with a decline in earnings, but a rich pipeline of reserve projects supports long-term growth potential [1]. - The company is expected to face challenges in the green electricity sector, impacting profitability in the near term, but has significant project reserves that will bolster future performance [6][8]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Projections**: The total revenue is projected to grow from 29,717 million in 2024 to 33,640 million in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.5% [2]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit is expected to recover from a decline of 14.9% in 2024 to a growth of 12.5% in 2025, reaching 7,837 million by 2027 [2][6]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is projected to increase from 0.21 in 2024 to 0.27 in 2027, reflecting a gradual recovery in profitability [2][6]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 20 in 2024 to 16 in 2027, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [2]. Operational Insights - **Power Generation**: The company achieved a total power generation of 393.14 billion kWh in the first half of 2025, marking an 8.85% year-on-year increase, driven by expansion in installed capacity [6]. - **Installed Capacity**: As of June 30, 2025, the company had a total installed capacity of 49.94 million kW, with significant contributions from wind and solar projects [6]. - **Project Pipeline**: The company has a robust pipeline with 13.82 million kW of projects under construction and 26.96 million kW planned, which will support future growth [6]. Market Context - **Market Challenges**: The company faces challenges related to power consumption and market pricing due to the rapid expansion of installed capacity and the volatility of renewable energy output [6]. - **Investment Outlook**: The report suggests a target price of 4.9 yuan, representing a potential upside of approximately 16% from the current price of 4.26 yuan [2][6].