8 月数据显示，燃气行业表观消费量同比增长 1.8%，1-8 月微降 0.1%，基本 持平。尽管 8 月是天然气传统淡季，但工业恢复节奏较慢。然而，考虑到下半 年工业复苏和居民用气需求回升，预计天然气需求增速将回到中低单位数水平。 上半年主要制约因素包括气量影响和现货价格未大幅下降，导致采购成本相对 平稳或略降。展望 2026 年，随着海外供给预期增加及国内新气源拓展，燃气 行业成本有望进一步优化。 当前投资机会集中在需求复苏逻辑和成本优化标的 上。A 股推荐标的包括新奥股份、深圳燃气和佛然能源： 火电板块投资机会从高股息率、短期业绩弹性大及明年业绩风险小三个 维度衡量，同时符合三个要求的是宝新能源与京能电力。京能电力与申 能股份 2025 年度预期股息率均在 5%以上。 A 股市场浙能电力、内蒙华电和淮河能源的股息率约为 5.1%，华能国 际和国电电力的股息率约为 4.6%。港股华能和华电的股息率分别约为 6.5%和 6.4%，具有较高性价比。 水电竞争格局中，低风险偏好可选长江电力，桂冠电力和国投电力也有 类似水平。垃圾焚烧行业推荐君欣股份、瀚蓝环境及绿色动力。环保板 块看好艾克兰与奥福科技，以及龙净环保 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Xingzheng International maintains a "buy" rating for Datang New Energy (01798), indicating that the company is currently undervalued and that policy support for the green electricity industry is expected to drive valuation recovery [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Datang New Energy achieved operating revenue of 6.845 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.30% or 219 million yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.688 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.37% or 77 million yuan [2] - The company reported operating cash flow of 3.122 billion yuan, a significant increase of 76.05% year-on-year, and a financing cost of 2.48%, down 36 basis points from the beginning of the year [2] - For Q2 2025, the company recorded operating revenue of 3.286 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.99% or 186 million yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 667 million yuan, down 4.26% or 30 million yuan [2] Group 2: Capacity and Generation - As of the end of H1 2025, the company's installed capacity was 19.07 GW, with wind and solar capacities of 14.52 GW and 4.55 GW respectively, compared to 13.11 GW and 2.44 GW in the same period last year [3] - The company’s wind and solar utilization hours were 1138 hours and 542 hours, showing a decrease of 29 hours and 228 hours year-on-year, with total generation of 16.493 billion kWh and 2.383 billion kWh, representing increases of 8.16% and 26.97% respectively [3] Group 3: Revenue and Profitability - In H1 2025, the total net profit was 1.909 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.66% or 72 million yuan, with net profit per kWh at 0.101 yuan, down 0.015 yuan year-on-year [4] - For Q2, the company’s wind and solar generation was 7.572 billion kWh and 1.399 billion kWh, with revenue per kWh at 0.366 yuan, down 0.018 yuan year-on-year [4] - The accounts receivable and bills balance at the end of H1 2025 was 24.371 billion yuan, accounting for 20.93% of total assets and 62.79% of net assets, indicating a need to monitor cash flow recovery from national subsidies [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expected outperformance of 10%-20% relative to the benchmark index over the next six months [1][22]. Core Views - Short-term performance is under pressure with a decline in earnings, but a rich pipeline of reserve projects supports long-term growth potential [1]. - The company is expected to face challenges in the green electricity sector, impacting profitability in the near term, but has significant project reserves that will bolster future performance [6][8]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Projections**: The total revenue is projected to grow from 29,717 million in 2024 to 33,640 million in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.5% [2]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit is expected to recover from a decline of 14.9% in 2024 to a growth of 12.5% in 2025, reaching 7,837 million by 2027 [2][6]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is projected to increase from 0.21 in 2024 to 0.27 in 2027, reflecting a gradual recovery in profitability [2][6]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 20 in 2024 to 16 in 2027, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [2]. Operational Insights - **Power Generation**: The company achieved a total power generation of 393.14 billion kWh in the first half of 2025, marking an 8.85% year-on-year increase, driven by expansion in installed capacity [6]. - **Installed Capacity**: As of June 30, 2025, the company had a total installed capacity of 49.94 million kW, with significant contributions from wind and solar projects [6]. - **Project Pipeline**: The company has a robust pipeline with 13.82 million kW of projects under construction and 26.96 million kW planned, which will support future growth [6]. Market Context - **Market Challenges**: The company faces challenges related to power consumption and market pricing due to the rapid expansion of installed capacity and the volatility of renewable energy output [6]. - **Investment Outlook**: The report suggests a target price of 4.9 yuan, representing a potential upside of approximately 16% from the current price of 4.26 yuan [2][6].