Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expected outperformance of 10%-20% relative to the benchmark index over the next six months [1][22]. Core Views - Short-term performance is under pressure with a decline in earnings, but a rich pipeline of reserve projects supports long-term growth potential [1]. - The company is expected to face challenges in the green electricity sector, impacting profitability in the near term, but has significant project reserves that will bolster future performance [6][8]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Projections**: The total revenue is projected to grow from 29,717 million in 2024 to 33,640 million in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.5% [2]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit is expected to recover from a decline of 14.9% in 2024 to a growth of 12.5% in 2025, reaching 7,837 million by 2027 [2][6]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is projected to increase from 0.21 in 2024 to 0.27 in 2027, reflecting a gradual recovery in profitability [2][6]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 20 in 2024 to 16 in 2027, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [2]. Operational Insights - **Power Generation**: The company achieved a total power generation of 393.14 billion kWh in the first half of 2025, marking an 8.85% year-on-year increase, driven by expansion in installed capacity [6]. - **Installed Capacity**: As of June 30, 2025, the company had a total installed capacity of 49.94 million kW, with significant contributions from wind and solar projects [6]. - **Project Pipeline**: The company has a robust pipeline with 13.82 million kW of projects under construction and 26.96 million kW planned, which will support future growth [6]. Market Context - **Market Challenges**: The company faces challenges related to power consumption and market pricing due to the rapid expansion of installed capacity and the volatility of renewable energy output [6]. - **Investment Outlook**: The report suggests a target price of 4.9 yuan, representing a potential upside of approximately 16% from the current price of 4.26 yuan [2][6].

Core Insights - The recent extreme heat in China has posed significant challenges to the power system, with the maximum national power load reaching a historical high of 1.465 billion kilowatts on July 4, an increase of approximately 200 million kilowatts compared to the end of June [1] Group 1: Energy Structure Transformation Achievements - The stability of thermal power has been reinforced, with a rapid transition towards cleaner energy. Advanced thermal power technologies have solidified the supply foundation, exemplified by the energy-saving and emission-reduction project at the Beilun Power Plant, which significantly outperforms industry standards in coal consumption and pollutant emissions [1] - The scale and resilience of renewable energy have achieved dual breakthroughs, with cumulative installed capacity of wind and solar power exceeding 1.65 billion kilowatts by May 2025, surpassing that of thermal power. Notably, wind power generation in Hainan surged by 456% year-on-year, while solar power generation in Fujian, Sichuan, and Hunan saw increases of 83%, 51%, and 49% respectively [2] - The role of new energy storage as a "regulator" has become prominent, with a maximum discharge power of 7.14 million kilowatts achieved during peak electricity demand on July 6, showcasing the critical function of storage in stabilizing the power supply and accommodating renewable energy fluctuations [3] Group 2: Infrastructure and Resource Optimization - The national grid's ultra-high voltage backbone network has enhanced cross-regional and cross-provincial transmission capacity to over 200 million kilowatts, providing robust support for stable power supply during the summer heat. Currently, 39 ultra-high voltage projects have been completed, with more major projects underway [3] - The recent heatwave has validated the phased achievements of China's energy transition and outlined the future evolution path of the energy system, emphasizing the shift from deep cleaning of thermal power to large-scale renewable energy, market-oriented application of storage, and nationwide coverage of ultra-high voltage networks [4]

聚焦"绿电+算力"协同场景，开辟业绩增量新方向。在"绿电+算力"领域，下属全资子公司金开新能伊吾 数字科技有限公司与无问芯穹（北京）智能科技有限公司签署了人工智能算力技术服务合同。此次合作 标志着公司开始涉足新能源与智算中心一体化项目领域，是"算力+电力"融合发展模式的重要实践，将 为公司未来发展提供有力支撑；同时，公司也积极关注"绿电+高载能行业"及"绿电+煤化工"等领域的潜 在机会，稳步推进相关技术路径和业务模式，为未来布局奠定基础。 盈利预测、估值与评级：2025 年年度长协电价靴子落地，各地区电价均有不同程度下行；我们下调公 司2025E-2026E 归母净利润至9.01/11.08 亿元（前值为12.74/15.87 亿元），并新增27 年归母净利润预测 为12.29 亿元，折合 EPS 分别为0.45/0.55/0.62 元，对应PE 为12/10/9 倍。鉴于公司在手核准项目丰厚且 持续扩张业务蓝图，未来增长确定性强，维持"买入"评级。 事件：公司发布2024 年年报。2024 年公司实现营收36.12 亿元，同比+8.55%；归母净利润8.03 亿元， 同比+0.05%。24Q4 单季度，公司 ...