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大通小兑:中国电商行业趋势观察(四)
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-09 10:29
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the instant retail market is expected to grow rapidly, with a projected compound annual growth rate of around 30% over the next seven years, potentially reaching approximately 28.2 trillion by 2030 [1][3]. - As of June 30, the gross transaction value (GTV) for Meituan's flash purchase reached 175 billion, while JD Daojia and Ele.me's total GTV were 70.8 billion and approximately 40 billion, respectively, leading to a combined total of about 285.8 billion for the top three players [1]. - The overall industry is estimated to reach around 450 billion when including other channels like Hema, Dingdong, and Sam's Instant Delivery, indicating significant growth potential [1][3]. Group 2 - Instant retail is seen as a key growth area due to the digitalization of offline retail and the suitability of fresh produce for same-city retail scenarios, with a market potential exceeding 10 trillion across various daily necessities [3][5]. - Self-operated instant retail platforms like Hema and Meituan's grocery delivery are expected to integrate more with offline supermarkets, creating a hybrid model that could reach a scale of at least 1 trillion, compared to their current scale of just over 100 billion [5][7]. - Traditional e-commerce is also evolving towards same-city retail, with platforms like JD and Douyin Supermarket enhancing delivery efficiency, blurring the lines between instant retail and traditional e-commerce [7].