Core Viewpoint - The Swiss Franc (CHF) has shown significant growth in the global currency market in the first half of 2025, standing out among other currencies, while the Euro has performed moderately and the US Dollar faces depreciation pressure [1] Group 1: Swiss Franc Performance - The rise of the Swiss Franc is largely attributed to a surge in global risk aversion, driven by the reintroduction of tariffs by the US, creating uncertainty in global trade [2] - The CHF has become a traditional safe-haven asset, attracting substantial capital inflows as investors seek stability [2] - The exchange rate of the Euro/CHF has fluctuated between 0.9305 and 0.9425 since April 22, indicating a stable and strong appreciation trend [2] Group 2: Swiss National Bank (SNB) Policy - The Swiss National Bank has lowered its policy interest rate to zero in the first half of the year, successfully bringing inflation back into positive territory [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year growth rate in June was only 0.1%, leading to market expectations of a potential 25 basis point rate cut in September, which could reintroduce negative interest rates [2] - Despite the low CPI, signs of economic recovery were observed in the first quarter of 2025, reducing the urgency for significant monetary easing [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The SNB's net foreign exchange purchases amounted to only 4.9 million CHF in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a cautious approach [3] - The IMF has warned the SNB to be cautious with monetary policy tools amid an expanding balance sheet, especially in the context of potential deflationary pressures [3] - The Euro/CHF exchange rate has been in a downward trend since April 22, and any changes in risk appetite or policy expectations could trigger significant fluctuations [3] - Upcoming months are critical for the CHF, as the implementation of tariff policies, SNB monetary policy announcements, and Swiss macroeconomic data releases will directly influence market expectations and capital flows [3]