证券研究报告 策略 PPI 上行如何影响 AH 权益？ 需求拉动型通胀：由于内生需求回暖推动价格上行，全产业链利润扩张，风 险偏好提升，行业轮动呈现明显的上游->大金融->消费的顺序，回测上看， 非金属材料、能源金属、乘用车、光伏设备、其他电源设备、玻璃玻纤等板 块主要受益，消费电子、专业服务、一般零售、厨卫电器、通信服务等板块 可能受损。 2026 年 3 月 02 日│中国内地 专题研究 宏观视角，PPI 同比有望于 5-6 月转正 考虑到 PPI 中石油化工相关商品价格、CPI 中运输和与能源相关性较高的分 项或表现强于此前预期。此外，随着 AI 投资相关需求以及外需走强，叠加 国内"反内卷"政策的稳步推进，对 PPI 波动率贡献较为显著的黑色系、有 色系上游商品价格有望延续温和回升态势，中下游（光伏设备、汽车等）价 格亦有望企稳，共同推动 PPI 指标同比降幅收窄。华泰宏观团队预测中国 PPI 或将在今年 5-6 月转正，为 2022 年 10 月来首次；2026 全年平均 PPI 或将从去年的-2.6 回升至+0.1%，而今年年底 PPI 可能达到 1%左右（《PPI 何时转正?》2026 年 3 ...

Group 1 - The oil sector is experiencing an upward trend, with the oil ETF (561360) rising over 2% and a net capital inflow exceeding 2 billion yuan in the past 20 days [1] - Western Securities highlights that the trading PPI (large refining) is benefiting from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, the appreciation of the yuan, and the return of cross-border capital, which are improving the cash flow statements of the real economy [1] - The correlation between PPI trading and the export-oriented manufacturing sector is low, suggesting that stock prices and valuations could see systematic recovery before the People's Bank of China resumes quantitative easing and revitalizes the real estate market [1] Group 2 - The oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which includes companies involved in exploration, extraction, refining, and sales of oil and gas, primarily focusing on large enterprises in the energy sector [1] - The index emphasizes upstream resource development and midstream processing while also considering downstream product distribution [1] - The combination of supply contraction and the return of foreign capital is expected to drive input inflation, with PPI likely to recover ahead of CPI [1]

记者丨胡慧茵 编辑丨李莹亮 2月10日，日韩股市再度高开，截至9:30，日股涨幅扩大，日经225指数涨超2%，再创历史新 高，软银集团大涨超10%。 韩国综合指数涨0.71%，权重股方面，现代汽车涨超2%。 日本众议院选举结果出炉，日元日债再度承压。 新华社2月9日消息，在8日举行的日本众议院选举中，由自民党和日本维新会组成的执政联盟 获得过半数议席。有市场分析指，这一结果为日本政府推行其经济议程减少障碍。 受选举结果影响，日元、日债遭到抛售，2月9日，日元和日债双双下挫。截至发稿，日元兑美 元录得1美元兑155.9日元，日元近日先跌后涨。但日元仍然保持弱势。日债则遭遇抛售，2月9 日，5年期日本国债收益率升至1.725%，为2001年有记录以来的最高水平；10年期国债收益率 日内上涨3.24%，录得2.296%；20年期国债收益率上涨1.31%，报3.176%。截至发稿，部分有 所回落，5年期收益率下跌3.0个基点，至1.710%，10 年期收益率跌至2.256%。 中国国际问题研究院亚太所特聘研究员项昊宇向21世纪经济报道记者分析称，这种"日元跌、 日股涨、日债抛"的表现在市场预料之中，主要源于日本执政联 ...

风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 每日经济新闻 地缘政治催化，石油板块上扬，2月9日，石油ETF（561360）收涨超1.5%。 西部证券指出，在供给收缩驱动和外资回流驱动的输入型通胀中，PPI会先于CPI修复。上半年交易PPI （大炼化），美联储降息，人民币升值，跨境资本回流叠加反内卷政策，正在修复实体部门的现金流量 表。PPI交易的出口链制造业，和国内景气的相关性较低，今年上半年中国央行QE化债重启楼市之前， 股价和估值就能够得到系统性修复。上半年跨境资本加速回流，油价一触即发，中国出口竞争优势的大 炼化（石油/化工）将成为下一个有色。 石油ETF（561360）跟踪的是油气产业指数（H30198），该指数聚焦于石油与天然气行业，选取涉及勘 探、开采、炼制及销售等环节的上市公司证券作为指数样本， ...

日本央行最新意见摘要表明，决策层对"落后于曲线"的风险持审慎态度，认为相关风险尚未显著上升， 但强调需及时落实政策。当前日本实际利率仍深陷负值区间，这成为央行推进政策调整的核心背景。 全体成员已达成共识，若未来经济增长与通胀符合预期，将继续沿逐步紧缩的路径加息。这一选择并非 激进调整，而是基于日本经济复苏韧性不足的现实——近三十年超宽松政策形成的惯性、国内消费疲软 以及企业信心薄弱，都使得激进紧缩可能带来风险，渐进调整成为兼顾多方的理性选择。 日元持续走弱与日本央行的政策取向形成呼应。首相高市早苗近期表态称，日元贬值有望为出口导向型 产业创造机遇，尤其可对冲美国关税对汽车行业的冲击。这贴合日本经济的核心特征——汽车、机械设 备等出口品类长期支撑经济增长，日元走弱可提升其海外价格竞争力，并增加企业海外收入的汇兑收 益。 日元贬值也会推高进口成本，加剧输入型通胀，这与日本央行通过加息抑制通胀的目标形成潜在冲突， 使日本在汇率调控与通胀管控之间陷入两难。 美国货币政策走向成为影响全球汇市及日美政策博弈的重要因素。特朗普提名凯文·沃什为下一任美联 储主席的消息推动美元走强。市场普遍解读此举预示美联储将转向更严格、更谨 ...

Economic Indicators - The Manufacturing PMI for January 2026 is at 49.3%, falling below the expansion threshold of 50.1%[7] - The Production and New Orders PMI are recorded at 50.6% and 49.2% respectively, both showing significant declines from previous levels[7] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 52%, slightly down from 52.5%, but remains near the second-highest level since the implementation of equal tariff policies in April 2025[7] - The construction sector's activity has slowed significantly, with the PMI dropping below 40% due to adverse weather and the upcoming holiday[7] Demand Dynamics - New Orders PMI has seen a year-on-year decline, marking the second-lowest drop for this period, indicating insufficient domestic demand[7] - New Export Orders PMI decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 47.8%, influenced by prior export surges and trade policy adjustments from key partners[7] Price Trends - Major raw material purchase price index and factory price index have risen to 56.1% and 50.6% respectively, indicating a return to expansion after 20 months[7] - Prices in the non-ferrous metal sector are driving overall price increases, while sectors with weak internal demand, like wood processing, show price contraction[7] Future Outlook - The report suggests that geopolitical changes and investment demand in technology will continue to drive global capital expenditure and commodity prices, particularly in non-energy commodities[7] - The ongoing contradiction of strong supply versus weak demand in the domestic market remains a critical issue, with the ability of upstream prices to transmit to downstream still uncertain[7]

Core Viewpoint - Japanese Prime Minister Sanna Takashi has launched her election campaign with the primary goal of ensuring a smooth voting process on February 8, while avoiding significant fluctuations in the financial markets [1][2][3] Group 1: Election Campaign and Market Stability - The campaign officially commenced on Tuesday, with Takashi aiming to solidify the ruling coalition's majority in the House of Representatives [3] - Recent polls indicate a slight decline in her approval ratings, yet they remain at a relatively high level overall [3] - A Japanese Finance Ministry official noted that any measures to lower bond yields could lead to further depreciation of the yen, increasing imported inflation and raising interest rate pressures [1][2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Government Strategies - Speculation arose last week regarding potential coordinated actions between the U.S. and Japan in the foreign exchange market, which temporarily boosted the yen's exchange rate [3] - There are currently no signs that authorities have engaged in actual intervention, although Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen have called for calm in the Japanese bond market, which has alleviated upward pressure on yields [3] - Lombard Odier's senior macro strategist Homin Lee stated that once the new cabinet is formed post-election and the annual budget is passed, it will become easier to achieve a balance between managing the yen's exchange rate and Japanese bond yields [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Producer Price Index (PPI) serves as a leading indicator for the Consumer Price Index (CPI), influencing currency exchange rates through its impact on inflation and monetary policy [1]. Group 1: Transmission Mechanisms - Positive Transmission: Rising PPI indicates increased production costs, leading to higher CPI, prompting potential interest rate hikes by the central bank, which can strengthen the domestic currency [1]. - Blocked Transmission: If PPI rises but CPI remains stable due to competitive market pressures, the central bank may not need to raise rates, resulting in a lack of significant currency movement [2]. - Negative Transmission: Continuous negative PPI growth suggests economic contraction, leading to potential interest rate cuts and depreciation of the domestic currency [3]. Group 2: PPI Structure Analysis - Input-driven PPI Increase: If PPI rises due to higher import prices of commodities, it may worsen trade balances and not lead to currency appreciation, potentially causing depreciation [4]. - Demand-driven PPI Increase: A rise in PPI due to strong domestic demand can lead to higher CPI, increasing the likelihood of interest rate hikes and strengthening the domestic currency [5]. Group 3: Key Influencing Variables - Market Reaction to PPI: The foreign exchange market's response to PPI data is primarily based on the deviation of actual values from market expectations rather than the data's absolute changes [6]. - Significant Positive Deviation: A much higher-than-expected PPI can heighten inflation and interest rate hike expectations, leading to a rapid appreciation of the domestic currency [6]. - Significant Negative Deviation: A much lower-than-expected PPI can alleviate inflation concerns, potentially leading to interest rate cuts and a weakening of the domestic currency [7]. Group 4: Long-term Implications of PPI and CPI Divergence - Persistent PPI above CPI: This scenario can squeeze corporate profits, suppressing investment and income growth, which may hinder long-term economic growth [10]. - Persistent PPI below CPI: This situation can expand corporate profits but may create inflationary pressures, requiring the central bank to balance growth and inflation [10]. Group 5: Summary of PPI's Impact on Currency - Short-term Impact: The effect of PPI on currency is influenced by the deviation from expectations, with unexpected increases in demand-driven PPI likely to strengthen the currency, while input-driven increases or lower-than-expected PPI may suppress it [11]. - Long-term Impact: The transmission of PPI to CPI is crucial; smooth transmission leading to policy adjustments can result in currency fluctuations, while blocked transmission diminishes PPI's influence on currency [11].

Group 1 - The Bank of Korea Governor Lee Chang-yong stated that the recent depreciation of the Korean won does not reflect the true strength of the South Korean economy and vowed to oppose any investment decisions that may threaten the stability of the foreign exchange market [1] - Concerns over foreign capital outflows and additional U.S. investments as part of tariff negotiations are exacerbating pressure on the won, with the USD/KRW exchange rate recently exceeding 1400 [1] - The South Korean authorities have implemented measures to support the won, including tax incentives and easing foreign exchange controls to increase dollar liquidity domestically [3] Group 2 - The South Korean government announced a new tax incentive plan for repatriated investment accounts to encourage overseas investment capital to return to the domestic market, including a temporary tax exemption on capital gains from selling overseas stocks [4] - The government plans to support major brokerages in launching forward sales products for individual investors to manage foreign exchange risk better [4] - The Bank of Korea maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2.5% and slightly raised economic growth and inflation forecasts, indicating a stable inflation outlook for the new year, although a weaker won could increase inflationary pressures [4]

Group 1: Political and Economic Developments - Trump's return to the presidency has led to increased global uncertainty due to aggressive tariff policies aimed at reshaping the manufacturing landscape in the U.S. [2][3] - The U.S. stock and bond markets experienced significant volatility as a result of these tariff policies, prompting a shift in global capital strategies towards high-friction and high-inflation environments [3] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's three interest rate cuts in 2025 did not lead to a decrease in long-term interest rates, which remained high due to expansive fiscal policies and rising national debt [10][11] Group 2: Commodity and Asset Market Trends - Gold prices surged to over $4500 per ounce, surpassing the euro to become the second-largest reserve asset globally, indicating a shift in the traditional currency reserve system [4][5] - The MSCI global index reached historical highs, reflecting strong performance across various markets, particularly in technology and emerging markets [6][7] - Industrial metals like copper and aluminum saw significant demand due to global energy transitions and infrastructure developments, highlighting a robust physical economy [6][7] Group 3: Technology Sector Dynamics - Nvidia's market capitalization exceeded $5 trillion, marking a pivotal moment in the AI infrastructure race, although concerns about the sustainability of its growth model emerged [8][9] - The tech sector faced volatility as investors shifted focus from speculative investments to evaluating actual profit growth, raising concerns about potential bubbles in AI investments [9] Group 4: Geopolitical Tensions - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East saw a temporary ceasefire in Gaza, but underlying tensions remained, affecting global investment confidence in the region [14][15] - Military confrontations between India and Pakistan escalated, leading to significant disruptions in regional markets and highlighting the risks associated with geopolitical instability [16] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Investment Strategies - The retirement of Warren Buffett from Berkshire Hathaway prompted a reevaluation of value investing principles in a rapidly changing market landscape dominated by technology [17][18] - The cryptocurrency market experienced a dramatic downturn after a period of growth, emphasizing the volatility and risks associated with emerging digital assets [19]