一、核心传导逻辑：PPI是CPI的"先行指标" PPI衡量工业企业产品出厂价格的变动趋势，反映生产端通胀压力；而CPI衡量消费端价格变化，是央行 货币政策的核心参考。两者的传导关系决定了PPI对汇率的基础影响： 正向传导(PPI→CPI→加息→本币升值) 若PPI持续走高，说明企业原材料、生产资料成本上升，这种压力会逐步向下游传导至消费品价格，推 高CPI。当CPI接近或超过央行通胀目标时，央行大概率加息以抑制通胀，高利率吸引国际资本流入， 进而推动本币升值。 典型场景：大宗商品价格暴涨推高PPI，随后消费端物价跟进上涨，央行启动加息周期，本币汇率进入 升值通道。 传导受阻(PPI走高但CPI平稳→汇率无明显反应) 若企业因市场竞争激烈、需求疲软等原因，无法将成本压力转移至消费端，会出现PPI与CPI"剪刀差"扩 大的情况。此时生产端通胀未转化为消费端通胀，央行无需急于加息，汇率缺乏明确的政策驱动信号， 大概率维持震荡。 反向传导(PPI通缩→经济下行→降息→本币贬值) 若PPI持续负增长(生产端通缩)，说明企业盈利空间收窄、投资意愿不足，可能引发经济下行压力。为 刺激经济，央行可能降息，低利率导致国际资本流 ...

韩国央行行长李昌镛表示，近期韩元走弱并未反映韩国经济的真实实力，并誓言将反对任何可能威胁外汇市场稳定的对美投资决策。外资流出以及 市场对额外美国投资(作为关税谈判的一部分)可能进一步加剧汇率压力的担忧，持续令韩元承压。李昌镛在周五的新年致辞中表示："尽管很难界定 一个精确、合适的汇率水平，但近期美元兑韩元汇率升至1400多的高位，明显与我国经济基本面存在较大偏离。"李昌镛还强调，美韩贸易协议中提 及的200亿美元投资规模是年度最高上限，任何投资决定都只会在不扰乱外汇市场稳定的前提下作出。他表示："在这一过程中，韩国央行将与政府 一道，不会支持任何可能损害外汇市场稳定的决定。" 截至发稿，美元兑韩元汇率报1442.00。 目前，韩国当局正竭尽全力遏制韩元贬值，因为韩元大幅走软可能会加剧输入型通胀风险、加速资本外流，并可能削弱外国投资者对该国金融稳定 的信心，进而可能造成恶性循环。 韩国当局正放宽外汇管制以增加境内美元流动性，寻求主要出口商合作，并加大力度缓解居民海外投资需求带来的压力。去年12月早些时候，韩国 央行已与国民年金公团(NPS)签署了一项限额为650亿美元的外汇互换合约。国民年金公团此前已开始抛售美 ...

波澜壮阔的2025年即将结束。这一年，权力的更迭、科技的狂飙、货币的易位与地缘的震荡交织在一起，构成了一幅极其复杂的历史画卷。我们见 证了传统秩序的加速崩解，也捕捉到了新秩序在阵痛中萌芽的微光。 作为记录者，财联社连续第四年推出年度海外十大新闻评选，试图从纷繁复杂的碎片中，厘清这一年影响全球资本市场与命运走向的核心脉 络。 以下是财联社评选出的2025年十大海外新闻 1. 特朗普就任美国第47任总统，任期首年频挥关税大棒，全球不确定性陡增 2025年1月20日，特朗普重返白宫，正式开启了他的第二个美国总统任期。这位奉行"交易艺术"的总统在就职后的"百日新政"中，以令市 场瞠目结舌的速度兑现了一系列竞选承诺。他不仅签署了多项撤销前任政府气候与能源政策的行政令，更将矛头直指全球贸易体系，宣布对 多国实施普遍性基础关税和针对性的高额附加关税，试图以此作为逼迫制造业回流美国的终极杠杆。 这一政策在全球供应链中引发了"强震"。由于关税壁垒的陡然升高，全球跨国企业不得不重新评估其生产布局，导致短期内航运成本波动剧 烈，多国通胀压力因进口成本上升而再度抬头。欧盟、加拿大、墨西哥等美国贸易伙伴纷纷表达了强烈不满，并相继出台贸 ...

新华财经北京12月12日电本周，日元兑离岸人民币跌至纪录低点0.045，引发了人们对日本输入型通胀 的担忧，而日本央行的政策正常化进程仍然缓慢。日元兑在岸人民币也走弱，徘徊在1992年以来的最低 水平附近。 在12月2日至9日进行的路透调查显示，绝大多数经济学家预计，日本央行将在12月会议上加息25个基点 至0.75%，并在明年9月底前将借贷成本至少提高到1%。 11日，美元指数延续下跌趋势，人民币汇率延续上涨行情；在岸人民币兑美元涨破7.06关口，最高升至 7.0572；北美交易时段，离岸人民币兑美元一度升破7.05关口，最高升至7.0466。 （文章来源：新华财经） 分析称，日本央行立场谨慎，再加上挥之不去的财政担忧，令日元承压。眼下日元的疲弱态势不仅仅体 现在兑美元和欧元汇率上，已经蔓延至兑中国和澳大利亚等主要贸易伙伴国的货币。由于货币正常化进 展迟缓，日本实际有效汇率接近数十年来的低点。 三菱日联高管Seki表示，如果日本10年期国债收益率超过2%，三菱日联计划加快重建日债头寸的步 伐。市场担忧日本存在陷入通胀与日元疲软恶性循环的"尾部风险"。 贝莱德日本首席投资策略师Yuichi Chiguchi表 ...

从长远观察来看，日本金融市场近期的动荡，实质上是对其经济增长模式与政策可信度的一次压力测 试。随着货币宽松幻象消退，债务依赖、内需不足、人口结构恶化、国际信誉损耗等问题愈发凸显。这 些问题的解决远非调整利率所能实现，而日本无论短期纾困还是长期转型，选择空间均十分有限，其经 济前景恐将长期笼罩在不确定性之中。（本文来源：经济日报 作者：孙昌岳） 与此同时，日本政府不当言行加剧了国际资本疑虑，投资者重新评估日本资产的政治风险，推高风险溢 价，导致长期融资成本上升、资本流入放缓，进一步损害经济发展潜力。 面对困局，日本政策调控陷入两难。财政政策方面，延续大规模刺激虽能短期托底，却会加剧高企的政 府债务与通胀压力。货币政策方面，加息虽有助于稳定日元汇率、抑制进口通胀，但会直接加重政府偿 债负担并压制国内消费与投资；若按兵不动，日元可能继续贬值，导致进口成本居高不下，普通民众的 生活压力持续加大。短期来看，日本似乎陷入了一种"救急则伤本，固本则难救急"的循环。 日本央行行长植田和男近日释放加息信号，引发日经指数与国债价格同步下挫，金融市场再现"股债双 杀"。这一波动不仅反映政策转向的冲击，更暴露出日本经济深层次的结构性 ...

首先是输入型通胀传导。日本本身资源匮乏，作为外向型经济，上游大量依赖进口，下游依赖出口，大 宗商品如能源、粮食、原材料等价格上涨导致日本物价相应上涨。尤其是日本央行多年奉行超低利率政 策导致日元持续贬值，加剧了这一局面。 居民消费价格指数（CPI）连续50个月上涨、超2万种食品价格上涨……日本国内通胀呈现顽固化特 征。导致日本当前严重通胀局面的原因何在？ 这些因素相互交织、相互作用，导致日本通胀"高烧不退"、颇具黏性，并显示出从输入型向内生型扩散 的长期趋势，恐将持续困扰日本民众生活。（作者：徐 胥 来源：经济日报） 其次是供应端缺口难补。米类价格在日本通胀统计中占比较高。从2024年夏季开始，受极端高温致大米 歉收等因素影响，米价持续上涨，成为本轮通胀的重要推手。日本农林水产省数据显示，2024年日本国 产大米批发价格同比上涨217%。今年以来，虽然日本农林水产省采取新的政府储备米投放方案，但米 价仍处高位。而日本农业从业者平均年龄较大，大量农田荒废致使供应短期难以弥补。 最后是新财政刺激政策助推。被视为"安倍继承人"的高市早苗无视经济环境变化，延续前首相安倍晋三 的扩张性财政政策路线。高市早苗在施政演说中 ...

Group 1: China Macroeconomic Indicators - The ICHI Composite Economic Index has returned to the expansion zone, indicating sustained economic resilience and accumulating structural recovery momentum[1] - The Consumer Sentiment Index has also risen to the expansion zone, reflecting active service consumption in travel, dining, and entertainment post-holiday[1] - The Investment Sentiment Index has slightly declined but remains in a mild contraction zone, primarily due to base effects from previous project launches[1] - The Production Sentiment Index has returned to the expansion zone, with a notable increase in enterprise operating rates and gradual recovery in manufacturing production[1] Group 2: Trade and Export Performance - In the first ten months of 2025, China's total goods trade value increased by 3.6% year-on-year, with exports growing by 6.2% and imports remaining nearly flat[2] - General trade and processing trade have expanded simultaneously, accounting for over 80% of total trade, indicating stable foreign trade structure and enhanced endogenous momentum[2] - Trade with ASEAN countries grew by 9.1%, and trade with Belt and Road countries increased by 5.9%, highlighting a shift towards emerging markets[2] - The export structure shows that electromechanical products account for over 60%, with integrated circuits and automobile exports growing by 24.7% and 14.3% respectively, showcasing the impact of high-end manufacturing and technological innovation[2]

Group 1 - The A-share market shows a divergence in hotspots, with sectors like beauty care, food and beverage, and retail experiencing a strong rebound, while communication and electronics sectors are among the biggest decliners [1] - The A500 ETF fund (512050) has seen a slight decline of 0.25% as of 14:02, with a trading volume exceeding 4.7 billion yuan, ranking first among its peers [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has been fluctuating around the 4000-point mark, with significant capital inflow into core A-share assets, as the A500 ETF fund attracted 2.768 billion yuan in the last 10 days, reaching a new high of 19.421 billion yuan in total size [1] Group 2 - The core CPI in October rose to 1.2% year-on-year, driven by three main factors: rising upstream raw material prices stabilizing downstream consumer goods prices, active fiscal policies boosting demand, and the impact of imported inflation such as the surge in gold prices affecting jewelry [1] - Looking ahead, the easing of China-US trade tensions is expected to benefit export growth, while domestic policies will continue to focus on expanding domestic demand to further promote consumption and investment [1] - It is anticipated that by 2026, China's economy will stabilize and improve, with inflation likely to stabilize and rebound [1]

Economic Overview - Japan is experiencing a prolonged inflation period, with the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising for 48 consecutive months, and the CPI growth rate remaining above 3% for seven months from January to July this year [1][4] - The Bank of Japan has updated its inflation forecast, expecting core CPI to be 2.7%, 1.8%, and 2.0% for the fiscal years 2025-2027, maintaining previous expectations [1] Consumer Impact - Rising prices are significantly affecting the purchasing power of Japanese citizens, with real wages declining for eight consecutive months due to inflation outpacing wage growth [5][6] - The average price of essential goods, including rice, has surged, with the price of 5 kg of rice reaching 4,205 yen (approximately 196 RMB), remaining above 4,000 yen for five consecutive weeks [3][4] Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market in Japan is experiencing rapid price increases, with average new home prices in Tokyo's 23 wards reaching 133.09 million yen (approximately 6.25 million RMB), a year-on-year increase of 20.4% [6][7] - Foreign investment is driving demand in the real estate sector, with 20% to 40% of new apartments in central Tokyo purchased by foreigners [7][9] Government Response - The Japanese government is cautious about raising interest rates, opting instead for a "time for space" approach, focusing on observing wage growth and enhancing productivity through digital transformation [5] - There are discussions about tightening regulations on foreign investments in real estate to prevent excessive foreign ownership of land [2][10] Long-term Concerns - The ongoing inflation and rising property prices may lead to a potential real estate bubble, with warnings from experts about the risks of speculative trading in the market [10][11] - Japan's demographic challenges, including a declining population and low interest in homeownership among younger generations, may limit long-term demand for real estate [11]

Core Viewpoint - The election of Sanae Takaichi as the new president of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party is expected to lead to significant fiscal stimulus and loose monetary policy, resulting in a market phenomenon referred to as "Takaichi trading" [1][4]. Economic Policy Implications - Takaichi is seen as a proponent of "Abenomics," advocating for loose monetary policy, active fiscal spending, and structural reforms [5]. - The USD/JPY exchange rate has crossed the psychologically significant level of 150, which may prompt the Japanese government to intervene in the foreign exchange market due to rising import costs [5][6]. Market Reactions - Following Takaichi's victory, the Nikkei 225 index reached a historical high, and the USD/JPY exchange rate rose above 150 [1][4]. - The yen has depreciated since Takaichi's election, reducing its year-to-date appreciation to 2.77% [4]. Potential U.S. Relations Impact - Concerns arise that the yen's depreciation could reignite criticism from former President Trump regarding Japan's trade practices, as he has previously accused Japan of manipulating its currency [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that Takaichi may act cautiously in economic policy to maintain good relations with the U.S. [6]. Inflation Concerns - Input inflation due to a weaker yen could become a political issue for the ruling party, as it may increase the cost of living for Japanese households [6][7]. - The current inflation rate in Japan has exceeded the Bank of Japan's target of 2% for three consecutive years, with the latest figure reaching 2.7% in August [7]. Future Monetary Policy Expectations - Analysts predict that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates in December and again in mid-2026, despite Takaichi's opposition to rate hikes [7]. - A stronger yen may be necessary to curb inflation and improve public purchasing power, which is a significant concern for the ruling party [7].