数据显示，在高市早苗胜选之前，日元兑美元汇率自年初以来已上涨约6%，至1美元兑147.44日元。而在 高市早苗胜选后，日元再度走软，使年内涨幅缩窄至2.77%。 智通财经APP获悉，在被称为"女版安倍"的高市早苗当选日本自民党总裁并几乎已确定将出任下一任日本 首相之后，市场出现了所谓的"高市交易"，即押注高市早苗领导下的日本政府将推出大规模财政刺激措 施，并实施宽松的货币政策。这一押注推动日经225指数创下历史新高，美元兑日元汇率则升至150上方。 当地时间10月4日，日本执政党自民党总裁选举结果揭晓，高市早苗击败小泉进次郎等多名竞争对手，成 功当选自民党新一任总裁。由于自民党目前仍在日本国会保持第一大党地位，高市早苗预计将在10月15日 的首相指名选举中成为日本首位女性首相。 如今，作为安倍的政治门生，高市早苗即将领导日本，同样的问题似乎又要重新浮现。高市早苗被视 为"安倍经济学"的信奉者——这是安倍晋三主导的经济战略，主张宽松货币政策、积极财政支出和结构性 改革。在去年的自民党党魁选举中，她曾批评日本央行加息计划，认为这会导致日元升值。 1美元兑150日元这一汇率水平具有心理与政治敏感性。过去，当美元兑日 ...

1. 需求端： 在这种供需格局下，铜价近年来多次走出强势行情。此次事故无异于在本就紧张的市场中"雪上加霜"。 近日，全球第二大铜矿传出事故消息，导致生产受阻。作为国际铜供给的重要来源，该事件立刻引发市场高度关注。当前全球铜供应本已紧张，此次突发情 况无疑使供需矛盾进一步加剧，也为大宗商品市场带来新的不确定性。 一、事故事件概况 据外媒报道，位于南美的全球第二大铜矿近日发生生产事故，涉及关键生产设施，导致部分产能停滞。虽然具体恢复时间尚未明确，但市场普遍担忧，这将 对全球铜供应造成显著冲击。 该矿山是全球主要的铜精矿供应地之一，年产量占全球铜供应比例接近5%。在全球矿产集中度较高的背景下，这样的大型矿山一旦停产或减产，往往会迅 速波及全球产业链。 二、铜市场本就供需紧张 近年来，铜市场供需格局一直偏紧： 1. 供给端： 全球新能源车、储能、风光发电等"绿色转型"产业对铜需求持续走高； 中国作为全球最大铜消费国，电网投资与新能源产业扩张，对铜材拉动显著。 2. 事故使得其他主要矿企获得相对更高的议价能力。短期内，未受事故影响的矿山或将加大出口。 3. 冶炼环节 4. 由于精矿供应可能收缩，冶炼企业面临原料紧张，现 ...

央行表示，短期内乌通胀仍将保持较高水平，如风险加剧或价格上涨压力 超出预期，将及时调整货币政策，下次基准利率调整会议将于10月23日召开。 （原标题：乌兹别克斯坦央行将基准利率维持在14%不变） 央行指出，全球通胀下降缓慢、国际贸易限制持续、食品价格上涨及主要 贸易伙伴国通胀高企，或将加剧乌输入型通胀压力，预计到2025年底，乌通胀 率约为8.7%。保持相对紧缩的货币政策有助于增强储蓄吸引力，促进信贷活动 平衡，将总需求控制在合理范围，降低货币因素对通胀的影响。 乌兹日报网9月11日报道，据乌兹别克斯坦央行报告，二季度经济活动和 消费需求增长，商品价格仍面临上行压力，但自8月以来，随着去年低基数效 应消退，通胀开始放缓。截至8月底，得益于商品价格增幅放缓，及近几个月 苏姆汇率稳定，乌通胀预期下降，年通胀率降至8.8%，核心通胀率降至7.6%， 央行将基准利率维持在14%不变。 ...

另一方面，美联储降息，美元走弱，短期内来看可能会推高黄金、铂金等大宗商品价格。南非这样的大宗商品出口国可能会从中获益。短期来说 美联储降息将带来额外外汇收入。然而依赖资源价格上涨并非长久之计。一旦美元重新走强或全球需求下滑，出口收益将迅速回落。更加值得警 惕的是，降息往往伴随着"廉价资金"，这可能诱使非洲政府与企业进一步扩大外部借贷。从短期看，降息意味着债务利息成本下降，长期来看却 可能埋下债务风险。 转载请注明央视财经 编辑：潘煦 不少分析人士提醒，美联储降息很可能导致美元走弱，新兴市场资产重新受到追捧，短期资本流入南非。这将推高南非兰特汇率，表面上有助于 缓解输入型通胀，但同时可能对出口企业造成冲击，进而压缩贸易相关财税收入。当前南非税收高度依赖进出口环节，一旦贸易量下滑，财政压 力随之加大。 （央视财经《正点财经》）美联储降息对远在非洲大陆南端的南非而言，不仅是金融新闻，更可能成为左右南非汇率、资本流动和财税收入的关 键变量。 ...

Group 1 - The Indian Rupee is expected to be one of the worst-performing currencies in Asia due to the pressure from increased tariffs imposed by the US, which is impacting India's already fragile economic recovery [1][3] - Analysts from Deutsche Bank and Barclays predict that the Rupee's exchange rate may fall to a historical low by the end of the year, driven by weak foreign capital inflows and tariff impacts [1][3] - The Indian stock market has experienced an outflow of $11 billion due to economic slowdown, and the central bank's interest rate cuts have further weakened support for the currency [1][3] Group 2 - Barclays estimates that high tariffs could reduce India's GDP growth rate by approximately 30 basis points [3] - The market is focused on the Indian central bank's policy meeting on August 6 for clues on interest rate direction and Rupee trends, following an unexpected 50 basis point rate cut last month [3] - Despite foreign exchange reserves being near historical highs, Citigroup economists believe that uncertainty around tariffs limits the central bank's motivation to aggressively support the Rupee [3] Group 3 - The Rupee has depreciated by 1.2% last week, reaching an exchange rate of 87.5275 Rupees per US dollar, marking the largest weekly decline since December 2022 [3] - Some analysts remain optimistic about a potential trade agreement between the US and India, which could improve the situation for the Rupee [3] - Weak foreign capital inflows continue to be a headwind for the Rupee, with limited prospects for significant bond market inflows due to the central bank's indication of limited rate cut space [3][4]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current gold price is experiencing a narrow upward fluctuation, trading around $3359.05 per ounce, following a significant "V-shaped" movement influenced by strong U.S. retail sales and declining unemployment claims [2] - Despite a temporary spike in the U.S. dollar index to 98.95, which pressured gold prices down to a low of $3309.82, strong buying interest emerged, indicating a hidden demand for gold amid inflation concerns [2][3] - The market shows a divergence between rising U.S. Treasury yields and gold prices, suggesting a significant disagreement regarding the Federal Reserve's policy direction [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The gold market is characterized by a bullish trend with high-level fluctuations, with key support levels identified at $3310 and resistance levels at $3375 [3][5] - The trading strategy suggests focusing on the effective profit space within the range of $3375 to $3310, with specific short-term targets set at $3355 to $3320 [3][5] - The Bollinger Bands indicate a consolidation phase, and traders are advised to monitor the boundaries of the trading range for effective transactions [5] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices are stabilizing at high levels, with Brent crude at $69.44 per barrel and WTI crude at $67.46 per barrel, influenced by supply concerns from Iraq and demand uncertainties due to potential U.S. tariffs [6] - The resilience of the U.S. economy is alleviating trade-related concerns, which is positively impacting oil demand outlooks, despite ongoing structural tensions in the oil market [6] - The potential for rising oil prices remains, especially if the U.S. economy continues to show strength and inventory levels do not recover significantly [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The medium-term outlook for oil prices remains bullish, with a potential upward test towards $78, although short-term momentum indicators suggest a weakening of bullish momentum [7] - The short-term trend indicates a slight upward movement, with key resistance levels identified at $70.5 to $71.5 and support levels at $67.0 to $66.0 [7]

Group 1 - The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate a complex signal regarding monetary policy amid external shocks, particularly inflationary pressures from tariffs [1][3] - If tariff-induced price increases are sustained and exceed expectations, the Federal Reserve may consider maintaining a stricter monetary policy stance, even if core inflation data temporarily declines [3] - The minutes acknowledge a potential "stagflation" scenario where rising inflation coincides with a weakening labor market, forcing the Federal Reserve to make difficult trade-offs between inflation and employment targets [3][4] Group 2 - Following the release of the minutes, short-term interest rate futures experienced increased volatility, reflecting investor uncertainty about potential rate cuts in September [4] - The Federal Reserve's policy path is becoming highly data-dependent, with no clear signals indicating whether inflation expectations are out of control or if there is significant deterioration in employment [4] - The current environment is characterized by political risks, disrupted global supply chains, and misaligned expectations between domestic prices and employment, making upcoming data crucial for future policy decisions [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss Franc (CHF) has shown significant growth in the global currency market in the first half of 2025, standing out among other currencies, while the Euro has performed moderately and the US Dollar faces depreciation pressure [1] Group 1: Swiss Franc Performance - The rise of the Swiss Franc is largely attributed to a surge in global risk aversion, driven by the reintroduction of tariffs by the US, creating uncertainty in global trade [2] - The CHF has become a traditional safe-haven asset, attracting substantial capital inflows as investors seek stability [2] - The exchange rate of the Euro/CHF has fluctuated between 0.9305 and 0.9425 since April 22, indicating a stable and strong appreciation trend [2] Group 2: Swiss National Bank (SNB) Policy - The Swiss National Bank has lowered its policy interest rate to zero in the first half of the year, successfully bringing inflation back into positive territory [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year growth rate in June was only 0.1%, leading to market expectations of a potential 25 basis point rate cut in September, which could reintroduce negative interest rates [2] - Despite the low CPI, signs of economic recovery were observed in the first quarter of 2025, reducing the urgency for significant monetary easing [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The SNB's net foreign exchange purchases amounted to only 4.9 million CHF in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a cautious approach [3] - The IMF has warned the SNB to be cautious with monetary policy tools amid an expanding balance sheet, especially in the context of potential deflationary pressures [3] - The Euro/CHF exchange rate has been in a downward trend since April 22, and any changes in risk appetite or policy expectations could trigger significant fluctuations [3] - Upcoming months are critical for the CHF, as the implementation of tariff policies, SNB monetary policy announcements, and Swiss macroeconomic data releases will directly influence market expectations and capital flows [3]

Group 1: Stock Market Performance - Global stock market risk appetite has steadily increased, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching record closing highs [1] - The S&P 500 index closed at 6204.95 points, up 25% from its low on April 9, while the Nasdaq rose over 34% from its low [5] - The Korean Composite Index surged over 28%, leading global stock markets, while the German DAX index saw a cumulative increase of 20% [1] Group 2: Commodity Market Trends - Gold prices rose significantly, with a 25.59% increase in the first half of the year, following a 19% rise in Q1 and a 6% increase in Q2 [1][8] - Platinum experienced a notable "catch-up" rally, with a cumulative increase of 48% in the first half of the year, while silver futures rose by 32.61% [1] - The COMEX gold futures saw a 5.67% increase in Q2, while platinum prices surged approximately 36.14% in the same period [8] Group 3: Currency Market Dynamics - The US dollar index fell over 10% in the first half of the year, marking the largest decline since 1973, while non-US currencies strengthened [1][5] - The euro appreciated by 13.8% against the dollar, and both the yen and pound rose by 8% [1] Group 4: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices experienced wide fluctuations, with WTI crude oil reaching a high of nearly $80 per barrel and a low of around $55 [10] - OPEC+ has begun increasing production, with plans to add approximately 1.37 million barrels per day by July [11] - Analysts predict that oil prices may have reached their peak for the year, with expectations of a downward trend influenced by OPEC+ production increases [11]

Group 1: Energy Market Impact - The Israel-Palestine conflict has led to a significant increase in global energy prices, with international crude oil and natural gas prices rising approximately 7% and 6% respectively, and Greek wholesale electricity prices soaring nearly 40% year-on-year [1][2] - The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical energy transport route, could result in oil prices exceeding $120 per barrel, further exacerbating fuel costs in Greece [2] - Greek energy companies anticipate increases in gasoline and diesel prices by approximately €0.20 and €0.36 to €0.38 per liter, respectively, due to rising fuel costs [2] Group 2: Tourism and Consumption Sector - The ongoing conflict has negatively impacted Greece's tourism sector, particularly from Israel, which was expected to see over 600,000 visitors in 2024, with a planned increase of nearly 46% in flight capacity by 2025 [3] - The suspension of flights to Israel has led to a significant drop in tourist arrivals, affecting local businesses reliant on tourism, especially in regions where Israeli tourists constitute a substantial portion of visitors [3] - The rising fuel prices are expected to increase transportation and production costs, leading to higher prices for goods and diminishing consumer purchasing power [4] Group 3: Government Response - The Greek government has implemented emergency measures to stabilize prices and protect livelihoods, including intensive inspections of gas stations and oil companies to prevent price gouging [5] - Regulatory actions include setting profit caps on fuel retail and imposing fines for violations, with amounts ranging from €5,000 to €5 million [5] - The government is also collaborating with the EU to secure strategic oil and gas reserves and is accelerating renewable energy projects to reduce dependence on external energy sources [6]