1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the ongoing Middle - East geopolitical conflicts, the oil and fat market is expected to remain volatile at high levels in the short term. The market is influenced by factors such as geopolitical uncertainties, U.S. biofuel policies, and supply - demand dynamics of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [5][59]. - Malaysia's palm oil (MPOB) may continue to reduce inventory in March, but the inventory will remain at a relatively high level. The supply - demand situation of Indonesian palm oil is also a key factor affecting the market, and the possible implementation of the B50 biofuel policy may increase palm oil consumption [14][25]. - Indian palm oil imports are expected to decline in March, while overall edible oil imports may slightly decrease [38]. - In the domestic market, palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil inventories are relatively high. The prices of these oils are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and import - export conditions [42][43][46]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In March, the overall oil and fat market showed a significant upward trend. At the beginning of the month, due to the Middle - East geopolitical war, the封锁 of the Strait of Hormuz, and the sharp rise in crude oil prices, the prices of oils and fats also increased. Later, due to factors such as the weakening of crude oil and the adjustments of margin and price limits by the Dalian Commodity Exchange, the prices of oils and fats declined slightly. Subsequently, expectations of U.S. biofuel policies, speculation on Indonesia's B50 biofuel policy, and delayed soybean arrivals led to another increase in prices. Recently, due to the news of U.S. - Iran negotiations, the prices of crude oil and oils and fats have been fluctuating at high levels [4][10]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Considering the possible recurrence of geopolitical factors, the short - term oil and fat market is expected to remain volatile at high levels. In terms of fundamentals, Malaysian palm oil may continue to reduce inventory in March but will remain at a relatively high level. Soybean oil is supported by geopolitical factors, positive expectations of U.S. biofuel policies, and delayed soybean arrivals, so it is likely to remain volatile at high levels and is more likely to rise than fall. Rapeseed oil has a relatively low inventory level. Before the arrival of a large amount of Canadian rapeseed and during the ongoing Middle - East geopolitical war, it will follow the overall trend of the oil and fat market and remain volatile at high levels [5]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral trading: Due to the ongoing geopolitical disturbances, the oil and fat market may remain volatile at high levels in the short term. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [5]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - In March, the overall oil and fat market showed a significant upward trend, with palm oil rising by more than 9%, rapeseed oil rising by about 7%, and soybean oil rising by about 5%. Similar to the previous description in the preface summary, geopolitical factors, biofuel policies, and supply - demand relationships have affected the price fluctuations of oils and fats. The Y - 9 05 spread has continued to narrow to around - 1200 [10]. 3.2.2 Malaysian Palm Oil - In February, the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil was 2.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.9%. The production decreased by 18.6% to 1.28 million tons, and exports decreased by 22% to 1.13 million tons [13]. - For March, it is estimated that the production of Malaysian palm oil may increase slightly to about 1.35 million tons, and exports are performing well. The inventory may be reduced to around 2.3 million tons, but it will still be at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history. The spot price of Malaysian CPO is oscillating strongly and may continue to decline slightly as the production season approaches. Malaysia has raised the reference price for the export of crude palm oil in April, and the export tax rate has been increased to 9.5% [14][15]. 3.2.3 Indonesian Palm Oil - In 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production was about 56.55 million tons, an increase of 7% year - on - year. Exports were 32.34 million tons, an increase of 9% year - on - year, and domestic consumption was 24.77 million tons, an increase of 4% year - on - year. The carry - over inventory was 2.07 million tons, lower than that at the end of 2024 and at a relatively low level compared to the same period in history [24]. - Recently, the fruit bunch price in North Sumatra has been rising, and the CPO tender price has also increased slightly. As the production season approaches, the CPO spot price may continue to decline slightly but is expected to remain relatively high. The POGO spread has decreased significantly, and the biofuel profit has improved, increasing the expected demand for palm oil in biofuel. The implementation of Indonesia's B40 biofuel policy is going well, and there is speculation about the B50 policy. If the B50 policy is implemented in the second half of this year, the additional consumption of palm oil in the biofuel sector is estimated to be about 2 million tons. It is estimated that the CPO reference price in April may be around $995, and the Tax tax may be increased, which will support the palm oil price to some extent [24][25][26]. 3.2.4 Indian Palm Oil - In February, India's edible oil imports were 1.29 million tons, and the cumulative imports in the 2025/26 fiscal year were 5.17 million tons, higher than the same period last year. Among them, palm oil imports were 0.85 million tons, and the cumulative imports in the 2025/26 fiscal year were 2.76 million tons, higher than the same period last year [37]. - In February, India's port inventory decreased slightly to 0.82 million tons, with palm oil inventory increasing to a relatively high level of 0.53 million tons, while soybean oil and sunflower oil inventories decreased to 0.17 million tons and 0.12 million tons respectively. The apparent consumption in India this year has been at a neutral to slightly high level but has declined compared to the same period last year [37]. - Currently, India has occasional import profits for soybean oil and sunflower oil but poor import profits for palm oil. It is expected that India's palm oil imports will decline in March, and the total edible oil imports may slightly decrease to about 1.16 million tons, slightly higher than the five - year average [38]. 3.2.5 Domestic Oil and Fat Market - **Palm oil**: As of March 20, 2026, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 808,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,800 tons, a decrease of 4.01%. The import profit is negative, and the current far - month purchases are relatively small. The spot market trading is weak, and the basis is stable at a low level. Considering the geopolitical factors, palm oil is expected to remain volatile at high levels in the short term. After the delayed arrival of palm oil in China ends, the inventory is expected to start to decline slightly at the end of March, but it will still be relatively high [42]. - **Soybean oil**: From January to February, China's cumulative soybean imports were 12.55 million tons. It is estimated that the imports in March and April will be about 6.7 million tons and 9.5 million tons respectively. As of March 20, 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 860,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25,200 tons, a decrease of 2.84%. The basis of soybean oil is stable with a slight decline. The market is concerned about the tightening of customs quarantine for Brazilian soybeans, which may lead to a slowdown in the arrival of Brazilian soybeans. The export of domestic soybean oil is increasing, which has a positive impact on the price. Overall, soybean oil is expected to remain volatile at high levels and is more likely to rise than fall, but the inventory is not expected to be tight, and the far - month basis is expected to decline [43][45]. - **Rapeseed oil**: In February, China's rapeseed crushing was only 32,000 tons. As of March 20, the rapeseed inventory in coastal oil mills was 128,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 23,000 tons. The market has been purchasing Canadian rapeseed recently, and it is expected that there will be no shortage of rapeseed before June. As of March 20, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 281,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons. The spot market trading is light, and the basis of rapeseed oil is stable with a slight decline. The Middle - East geopolitical war has disrupted the transportation of rapeseed oil, and the transportation of Dubai rapeseed oil has been interrupted. In the short term, before the arrival of a large amount of Canadian rapeseed and during the ongoing geopolitical war, rapeseed oil is expected to remain volatile at high levels. However, if the geopolitical situation eases and a large amount of Canadian rapeseed arrives in April, the supply pressure of rapeseed oil will increase [46]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - The Middle - East geopolitical war remains the focus of the oil and fat market. Considering the possible recurrence of geopolitical factors, the oil and fat market is expected to remain volatile at high levels in the short term. Malaysian palm oil may continue to reduce inventory in March but will remain at a relatively high level. Soybean oil is supported by geopolitical factors, positive expectations of U.S. biofuel policies, and delayed soybean arrivals, so it is likely to remain volatile at high levels and is more likely to rise than fall. Rapeseed oil has a relatively low inventory level. Before the arrival of a large amount of Canadian rapeseed and during the ongoing Middle - East geopolitical war, it will follow the overall trend of the oil and fat market and remain volatile at high levels. However, if the geopolitical situation eases and a large amount of Canadian rapeseed arrives in April, the supply pressure of rapeseed oil will increase [59].