Group 1: Report Overview - The report is about the hog market on August 14, 2025, indicating that the spot market is mainly weak [1] Group 2: Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan's spot price is 13,930 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 50; Sichuan's is 13,550 yuan/ton with a 200 increase; Guangdong's is 15,290 yuan/ton with no change [3] - **Futures Prices**: The prices of hog2509, hog2511, and hog2601 are 13,950 yuan/ton, 14,045 yuan/ton, and 14,295 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 15, - 185, and - 130 [3] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For hog2509, the trading volume is 9,835 lots (up 3,466 from the previous day) and the open interest is 18,627 lots (down 3,281 from the previous day); for hog2511, the trading volume is 47,508 lots (up 20,637) and the open interest is 66,230 lots (up 5,348); for hog2601, the trading volume is 18,115 lots (up 8,296) and the open interest is 45,776 lots (up 941) [3] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of hog2509, hog2511, and hog2601 are - 20 yuan/ton, - 115 yuan/ton, and - 365 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of 65, 235, and 180; the hog 9 - 11 spread is - 95 yuan/ton (up 170 year - on - year), and the hog 11 - 1 spread is - 250 yuan/ton (down 55 year - on - year) [3] Group 3: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish view, with the range of [-2, 2] for trend intensity and different levels of strength classification [4] Group 4: Market Logic - In August, the planned slaughter volume of group farms increases, while individual farmers are forced to hold back hogs. Demand growth is limited, leading to large market pressure. Recent daily transactions are poor, and it's difficult to absorb market supply [5] - The September contract is entering the pre - delivery month, and on the tenth trading day, it enters the second phase of position limits. The futures price is still at a significant premium to the warehouse receipt cost, increasing the industry's willingness to deliver. Attention should be paid to the market of premium convergence [5] - Recently, the macro sentiment has strong support for the far - end contracts, resulting in a pattern of weak current situation and strong expectations. The spread structure maintains a reverse arbitrage, and stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [5]

Report Overview - Report Title: "Pigs: Weakening Sentiment, Phased De-stocking" - Report Date: May 20, 2025 - Analysts: Zhou Xiaoqiu, Wu Hao 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The current situation shows an inverted price difference between northern and southern fat pigs, a decrease in group piglet sales, and initial evidence of inventory accumulation from the pressure of selling fat pigs. The official piglet numbers confirm the inventory, leading to weakened expectations. There is a possibility of phased weight reduction due to trade circulation issues, and the positive spread structure may switch. The January contract is affected by liquidity, and although it is a peak - season contract before the Spring Festival, the increase in positions is limited, causing the far - month spread to deviate from the seasonal reasonable spread. It is recommended to wait for the opportunity of liquidity shift and continuously layout the 11 - 1 reverse spread in the medium - to - long term, while paying attention to stop - loss and take - profit. In the short term, the support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan's spot price is 14,800 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; Sichuan's is 14,250 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; and Guangdong's is 14,990 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton [2]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the Pig 2507 contract is 13,300 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan/ton; the Pig 2509 contract is 13,685 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; and the Pig 2511 contract is 13,380 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Pig 2507 contract is 6,971 lots, an increase of 1,440 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 27,734 lots, an increase of 55 lots. The trading volume of the Pig 2509 contract is 22,198 lots, a decrease of 6,147 lots, and the open interest is 79,343 lots, an increase of 69 lots. The trading volume of the Pig 2511 contract is 4,223 lots, a decrease of 1,176 lots, and the open interest is 31,864 lots, an increase of 719 lots [2]. - **Spreads**: The basis of the Pig 2507 contract is 1,500 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton; the basis of the Pig 2509 contract is 1,115 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton; the basis of the Pig 2511 contract is 1,420 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The 7 - 9 spread is - 385 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton; the 9 - 11 spread is 305 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with the value range being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, weakly - biased, neutral, strongly - biased, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish view and 2 represents the most bullish view [3]. 3.3 Market Logic - As described in the core view, factors such as price differences, inventory, and liquidity affect the market, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed [4].