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中矿资源(002738):地勘老兵厚积薄发,多金属业务布局绘新篇
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The company is transitioning from a geological exploration firm to a comprehensive mining enterprise, focusing on lithium, minor metals, and copper [18]. - The company has significant advantages in the minor metals sector, particularly in cesium and rubidium, which are expected to contribute to stable profits [46]. - The lithium segment is positioned for cost optimization and increased competitiveness, with a focus on resource self-sufficiency [75]. - The copper segment is anticipated to become a key growth driver following the acquisition of high-quality copper mining assets [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue (in million yuan) is projected to be 5,364 in 2024, 6,150 in 2025, 7,795 in 2026, and 10,168 in 2027, with growth rates of -10.8%, 14.7%, 26.7%, and 30.4% respectively [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders (in million yuan) is forecasted at 757 in 2024, 445 in 2025, 1,063 in 2026, and 1,733 in 2027, with growth rates of -65.7%, -41.3%, 139.1%, and 63.0% respectively [2]. - Earnings per share (in yuan) are expected to be 1.05 in 2024, 0.62 in 2025, 1.47 in 2026, and 2.40 in 2027 [2]. Business Segments Overview Minor Metals - The company has a strong resource advantage in cesium and rubidium, with significant pricing power due to high market concentration [46]. - The new germanium and gallium projects are expected to contribute to performance starting in 2025 [46]. Lithium - The company has been actively acquiring quality lithium mines since 2018, enhancing resource security and reducing costs [75]. - The lithium segment is expected to have a stable bottoming out of prices, with projected sales volumes of 42,000 tons in 2025, 45,000 tons in 2026, and 52,000 tons in 2027 [8]. Copper - The acquisition of the Kitumba copper mine is set to enhance the company's position in the bulk metal sector, with a planned production capacity of 60,000 tons per year starting in 2026 [7][9]. - The copper market is expected to remain tight, with prices projected to stay high due to limited new supply [7]. Valuation and Market Potential - The report estimates the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 at 4.45 billion, 10.63 billion, and 17.33 billion yuan respectively [7]. - The target market capitalization for 2026 is projected to be 36.8 billion yuan, indicating a potential upside of 17.36% from the current market cap of 31.4 billion yuan [7].