Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Monday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The intraday price center slightly dropped to around 15,320 yuan/ton, closing down 0.33% at 15,320 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread discount narrowed to 75 yuan/ton. After the weakening of macro - driving factors, the domestic rubber market has returned to a market dominated by supply - demand fundamentals [6]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, fluctuating stably, and rebounding significantly. The futures price reached a maximum of 2,077 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,007 yuan/ton, closing up 3.08% at 2,077 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread discount narrowed to 121 yuan/ton. With the improvement trend in methanol supply - demand expectations, the methanol futures price is expected to have a valuation repair market [6]. - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The futures price reached a maximum of 449.5 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 442.5 yuan/barrel, closing down 1.13% at 447.9 yuan/barrel. The bearish atmosphere has strengthened. The game between supply surplus and seasonal demand recovery, combined with the weakening of macro - sentiment, has put pressure on short - term oil prices [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of November 16, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 452,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,100 tons or 0.70%. The bonded area inventory decreased by 1.76% to 66,600 tons, while the general trade inventory increased by 1.13% to 386,000 tons. The inbound and outbound rates of bonded and general trade warehouses decreased. As of the week of November 21, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.40 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.56 percentage points. In October 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.359 million and 3.322 million respectively, with month - on - month increases of 2.5% and 3% and year - on - year increases of 12.1% and 8.8%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative automobile production and sales were 27.692 million and 27.687 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.2% and 12.4%. In October 2025, the sales of heavy - duty trucks were about 93,000, a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative sales were 916,000, and the annual sales are expected to exceed one million and may even reach 1.1 million [11][12]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of November 21, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 83.77%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.17%, a month - on - month increase of 1.06%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.08%. The average weekly methanol output was 2.0142 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 38,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 70,700 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 134,000 tons. The operating rates of formaldehyde, acetic acid, and MTBE increased slightly, while the operating rate of dimethyl ether decreased slightly. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.67%, a week - on - week increase of 0.85 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 3.78%. The futures disk profit of domestic methanol to olefin was 316 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 7 yuan/ton and a month - on - month rebound of 537 yuan/ton. The port methanol inventory in East and South China was 1.2439 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 35,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,900 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 184,600 tons. The inland methanol inventory was 358,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,700 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 29,300 tons [13][14]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of November 14, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 417, a week - on - week increase of 3 and a year - on - year decrease of 61. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.834 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 28,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 633,000 barrels per day. The US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 424.2 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 3.426 million barrels and a significant year - on - year decrease of 6.137 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 21.821 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 698,000 barrels. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 410.9 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 533,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 90%, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 1.4 percentage points, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.2 percentage points. The average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil decreased significantly, while the average net long positions in Brent crude oil futures funds increased significantly [14][15]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,750 yuan/ton | - 100 yuan/ton | 15,320 yuan/ton | + 80 yuan/ton | - 570 yuan/ton | - 80 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,082 yuan/ton | + 70 yuan/ton | 2,077 yuan/ton | + 73 yuan/ton | + 5 yuan/ton | - 3 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 416.2 yuan/barrel | - 0.1 yuan/barrel | 447.9 yuan/barrel | + 0.5 yuan/barrel | - 31.7 yuan/barrel | - 0.6 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - **Rubber**: The report mentions relevant charts such as rubber basis,上期所 rubber futures inventory, etc [17][19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, stabilizing in oscillation, and slightly rising on Tuesday. Driven by macro - sentiment and industrial factors, it is conducive to the valuation repair of the contract [6]. - The methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, weakening in oscillation, and slightly falling on Tuesday. Suppressed by the weak supply - demand fundamentals of methanol, it is expected to continue to operate weakly in the future [6]. - The crude oil futures contract 2512 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening in oscillation, and slightly closing lower on Tuesday. After the previous rebound of oil prices, differences between bulls and bears emerged. It is expected to maintain a weakly oscillating pattern in the future [6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of October 26, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 432,200 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons or 1.20% from the previous period. The inventory in the bonded area was 68,700 tons, a decrease of 1.29%, and the general trade inventory was 363,500 tons, a decrease of 1.18%. In the week of October 24, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.84%, a week - on - week increase of 1.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.84 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.87%, a week - on - week increase of 1.91 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.95 percentage points. In September 2025, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 51.2%, a rebound of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The new order index was 53.3%, a rebound of 1 percentage point month - on - month. In September, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9%. From January to September 2025, China's automobile production and sales totaled 24.333 million and 24.363 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 12.9%. In September 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was 105,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%. From January to September, the cumulative sales volume was about 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 20% [8][9]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of October 24, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 82.71%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.67%, a month - on - month increase of 3.20%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.17%. The average weekly methanol output was 1.9435 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 40,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 70,800 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 73,600 tons. The domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 30.97%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.02%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 8.34%, a week - on - week increase of 1.66%. The acetic acid operating rate was 73.61%, a week - on - week increase of 2%. The MTBE operating rate was 56.50%, a week - on - week increase of 1.61%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 86.45%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.91 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.42%. The futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 154 yuan/ton, a week - on - week rebound of 111 yuan/ton and a month - on - month rebound of 22 yuan/ton. As of the week of October 24, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 1.2698 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,700 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 308,100 tons. As of the week of October 23, the inland methanol inventory was 360,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,400 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 76,500 tons [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of October 17, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 418, with no week - on - week change and a decrease of 64 from the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.629 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 7,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 129,000 barrels per day. As of the week of October 17, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 423 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 961,000 barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 3.2 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 21.231 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 770,000 barrels. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 408.56 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 819,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was 88.6%, a week - on - week increase of 2.9 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 4.4 percentage points, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9 percentage points. As of September 23, the average non - commercial net long positions of WTI crude oil were 102,958 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 4,249 contracts and a decrease of 19,105 contracts or 15.65% from the August average. As of October 21, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 51,791 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 58,520 contracts and a decrease of 164,564 contracts or 76.06% from the September average [11][12]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | |--|--|--|--|--|--|--| | Shanghai Rubber | 14,750 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,350 yuan/ton | - 30 yuan/ton | - 600 yuan/ton | +30 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,250 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 2,254 yuan/ton | - 14 yuan/ton | - 4 yuan/ton | +14 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 438.5 yuan/barrel | - 0.2 yuan/barrel | 465.6 yuan/barrel | - 3.3 yuan/barrel | - 27.1 yuan/barrel | +3.1 yuan/barrel | [14] 3.3 Related Charts - **Rubber**: Charts include rubber basis, rubber 1 - 5 month spread, SHFE rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded - area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][22][25] - **Methanol**: Charts include methanol basis, methanol 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port methanol inventory, inland social methanol inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][36] - **Crude Oil**: Charts include crude oil basis, SHFE crude oil futures inventory, U.S. commercial crude oil inventory, U.S. refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [39][41][43]