白银期货(沪银2606
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2026年3月24日申万期货品种策略日报-黄金白银-20260324
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2026-03-24 05:10
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Precious metals have rebounded significantly. Trump unilaterally signaled negotiations, causing crude oil prices to drop sharply, and risk appetite to recover, driving the rebound of precious metals. The core drivers of the precious metals adjustment are the downward revision of interest rate cut expectations and liquidity shocks. In the medium to long - term, the price center of precious metals will continue to move up due to geopolitical risks and concerns about US fiscal sustainability, and the de - dollarization process will continue to advance. The long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged, and silver, platinum, and palladium follow the overall sector's trend with relatively larger fluctuations [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Gold Futures**: - For沪金2606, yesterday's closing price was 942.80, down 99.22 (-9.52%) from the previous day. The trading volume was 370,312, and the open interest was 156,399. The spot premium was -21.81 [2]. - For沪金2604, yesterday's closing price was 940.00, down 99.22 (-9.55%) from the previous day. The trading volume was 386,422, and the open interest was 62,764. The spot premium was -19.01 [2]. - **Silver Futures**: - For沪银2606, yesterday's closing price was 15,411, down 2,214 (-12.56%) from the previous day. The trading volume was 1,259,324, and the open interest was 222,721. The spot premium was -142 [2]. - For沪银2604, yesterday's closing price was 15,498, down 2,216 (-12.51%) from the previous day. The trading volume was 136,668, and the open interest was 55,828. The spot premium was -229 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Gold**: Shanghai Gold T+D's closing price was 920.99, down 119.61 (-11.49%) from the previous day; London gold was at 4407.35 dollars per troy ounce, down 84.32 (-1.88%) [2]. - **Silver**: Shanghai Silver T+D's closing price was 15,269, down 2,511 (-14.12%) from the previous day; London silver was at 69.11 dollars per troy ounce, up 1.21 (1.79%) [2]. 3.3 Inventory - **Gold**: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 106,746 kg (down 99 kg), and the COMEX inventory was 32,032,542 troy ounces (down 21,733 troy ounces) [2]. - **Silver**: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 364,549 kg (up 2,054 kg), and the COMEX inventory was 332,090,493 troy ounces (down 604,761 troy ounces) [2]. 3.4 Related Derivatives and Other Data - **SPDR Gold ETF**: The current holding was 1,053 tons, down 4 tons [2]. - **SLV Silver ETF**: The current holding was 15,514 tons, up 265 tons [2]. - **CFTC Speculators' Net Positions**: For gold, it was 159,869, down 3,263; for silver, it was 21,881, down 2,697 [2]. - **Other Related Indexes**: The US dollar index was 99.12 (down 0.40), the S&P 500 index was 6,581.00 (up 74.52), the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.34% (down 0.05%), Brent crude oil was at 96.07 (down 8.34), and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 6.9062 (up 0.0245) [2]. 3.5 Macro - information - **Iran Situation**: There are differences in statements between the US and Iran regarding negotiations. Trump said there were productive talks and a possible agreement in 5 days, but Iran denied having negotiations. Israel will continue to attack Iran and Lebanon, and the US military is considering sending troops to Iran [3]. - **Fed**: Different Fed officials have different views on interest rate hikes and cuts. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in April is 92.8% [3].
2026年2月27日申万期货品种策略日报-黄金白银-20260227
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2026-02-27 02:11
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Precious metals continue to fluctuate. The overall performance of precious metals has been relatively strong recently, driven by three core logics: the change in US tariff policy impacts the US dollar's credit, the tense situation in Iran boosts the safe - haven demand for gold, and the stagflation risk strengthens the anti - inflation property of gold. In the short term, tariff rulings and geopolitical conflicts have a resonance effect on precious metals. In the medium to long term, factors such as de - dollarization and geopolitical risks will support gold to return to an upward channel. Due to the resonance of industrial and financial attributes, silver is expected to continue its volatile and relatively strong trend in the short term [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Gold Futures**: For Shanghai Gold 2606, the previous day's closing price was 1154.34, yesterday's closing price was 1150.10, with a decline of 4.24 and a decline rate of - 0.37%. The trading volume was 37536, and the open interest was 103854. For Shanghai Gold 2604, the previous day's closing price was 1151.060, yesterday's closing price was 1146.480, with a decline of 4.580 and a decline rate of - 0.40%. The trading volume was 169407, and the open interest was 151642 [2]. - **Silver Futures**: For Shanghai Silver 2606, the previous day's closing price was 22786, yesterday's closing price was 22286, with a decline of 500 and a decline rate of - 2.19%. The trading volume was 276956, and the open interest was 153835. For Shanghai Silver 2604, the previous day's closing price was 23029, yesterday's closing price was 22572, with a decline of 457 and a decline rate of - 1.98%. The trading volume was 357610, and the open interest was 173529 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Gold Spot**: The previous day's closing price of Shanghai Gold T + D was 1145.07, yesterday's closing price was 1143.00, with a decline of 2.07 and a decline rate of - 0.18%. The price of London gold was 5181.10, with an increase of 16.79 and an increase rate of 0.33% [2]. - **Silver Spot**: The previous day's closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D was 22131, yesterday's closing price was 21600, with a decline of 531 and a decline rate of - 2.40%. The price of London silver was 88.18, with a decline of 1.04 and a decline rate of - 1.16% [2]. 3.3 Inventory - **Gold Inventory**: The current inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold is 105,072 kg, unchanged from the previous value. The current inventory of COMEX gold is 33,487,689 troy ounces, a decrease of 139850 troy ounces from the previous value [2]. - **Silver Inventory**: The current inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver is 346,369 kg, a decrease of 9461 kg from the previous value. The current inventory of COMEX silver is 360,638,935 troy ounces, a decrease of 1205466 troy ounces from the previous value [2]. 3.4 Related Derivatives - **ETF Holdings**: The current holding of SPDR Gold ETF is 1,098 tons, an increase of 0.28 tons from the previous value. The current holding of SLV Silver ETF is 16,080 tons, a decrease of 28 tons from the previous value [2]. - **CFTC Speculators' Net Positions**: The current net position of CFTC speculators in gold is 159,915, a decrease of 97 from the previous value. The current net position of CFTC speculators in silver is 24,003, an increase of 1048 from the previous value [2]. 3.5 Macro News - Iran's Foreign Minister Araqchi said that the negotiations with the US have made good progress [3]. - Six US aerial refueling tankers are flying to Israel's Ben - Gurion Airport to join the expanding US military deployment in the region [3]. - The US - Ukraine Geneva talks ended on the 26th, and no specific results have been announced [3]. - After Trump's tariff lawsuit lost in the Supreme Court, government officials are formulating legal strategies to retain billions of dollars in tariffs ruled illegal by the Supreme Court [3]. - Fed's Goolsbee said that interest rates can be cut, but he doesn't want to cut them significantly before inflation eases [3]. - Fed Governor Milan believes that interest rates need to be cut by about 1 percentage point this year, in four 25 - basis - point cuts and as early as possible [3]. - The increase in the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits last week was lower than expected, indicating that lay - offs remain at a low level. The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending February 21 increased by 4000 to 212,000, with a median forecast of 215,000. The number of continuing claims dropped to 1.83 million [3].