机构：华创证券 研究员：欧阳予/刘旭德/董广阳 事项： 公司发布2025 年三季报，前三季度公司实现营业总收入/正常化EBITDA 分别46.91/14.21 亿美元，内生 同比-6.6%/-7.7%；正常化归母净利润为6.78 亿美元，表观同降12.7%。单Q3 看，公司实现营业总收入/ 正常化EBITDA 分别15.55/4.38 亿美元，内生同比-8.4%/-6.9%；正常化归母净利润为2.04 亿美元，表观 同降9.3%。 评论： 亚太西部：需求持续承压，费投力度加大。25Q3 亚太中国区延续承压，收入同降15.1%。拆分量价 看，销量内生同降-11.4%，主要系高端餐饮场景受损叠加公司延续去库所致，吨价内生同降4.1%，主要 去库过程中高价位产品影响较多所致。费投端，公司一是加大对创新产品（科罗娜全开盖罐、百威 1L 黑金啤酒等）的广宣投放，二是加速开拓非即饮渠道，加大家庭端渠道建设，三是运营端持续去杠杆， 驱动正常化EBITDA 内生同降17.4%。印度区高端及超高端产品延续高增势能，收入低基数下实现双位 数增长。综合来看，25Q3 亚太西部收入同降12.0%，EBITDA 内生同降11.9%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for Budweiser APAC (01876.HK) with a target price of HKD 10 [1][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of USD 4.691 billion and normalized EBITDA of USD 1.421 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.6% and 7.7% respectively. The normalized net profit attributable to the parent company was USD 678 million, showing a decrease of 12.7% [1][7]. - In Q3 alone, the company achieved total revenue of USD 1.555 billion and normalized EBITDA of USD 438 million, with year-on-year declines of 8.4% and 6.9% respectively. The normalized net profit for Q3 was USD 204 million, down 9.3% year-on-year [1][7]. - The report highlights that the company is undergoing a structured adjustment phase, focusing on reducing inventory and preparing for future growth despite facing significant pressure in the Chinese market [7]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2024A: USD 6,246 million - 2025E: USD 5,870 million - 2026E: USD 6,014 million - 2027E: USD 6,139 million - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at -8.9% for 2024, -6.0% for 2025, 2.4% for 2026, and 2.1% for 2027 [3][12]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2024A: USD 726 million - 2025E: USD 671 million - 2026E: USD 717 million - 2027E: USD 754 million - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at -14.8% for 2024, -7.5% for 2025, 6.7% for 2026, and 5.2% for 2027 [3][12]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024: USD 0.05 - 2025: USD 0.05 - 2026: USD 0.05 - 2027: USD 0.06 [3][12]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is projected at 19 for 2024, 20 for 2025, 19 for 2026, and 18 for 2027 [3][12]. Market Performance - The report indicates that Budweiser APAC's performance in the Asia-Pacific region is under pressure, particularly in China, where revenue declined by 15.1%. However, the company is seeing double-digit growth in high-end and super high-end products in India [7][8]. - The company is actively adjusting its operational strategies, focusing on family-oriented channels and innovative product launches to counteract the declining demand [7][8].