智通财经APP获悉，经济学家努里尔·鲁比尼表示，他预计到2025年底美国核心通胀率将升至3.5%。他 指出，今年下半年美国经济增长将放缓，甚至可能出现衰退，而美联储在12月之前都不会降息。鲁比尼 因提前预测2008年金融危机和2020年疫情引发的衰退而获得"末日博士"的称号。 鲁比尼称，经济放缓将呈现"轻度滞胀冲击"的特征，并警告称通胀仍然过高，美联储难以转向政策。美 联储青睐的通胀指标——核心个人消费支出指数依然顽固。鲁比尼认为该指数将远高于目标水平，令美 联储陷入困境。这种增长放缓而通胀高企的局面，他此前已多次预见。 这位经济学家还表示，他预计全球贸易谈判将降温，但无法避免对经济造成损害。他预测最终将出 现"温和的"结果，许多国家最终将面临15%的关税。 当被问及潜在的市场冲击时，鲁比尼表示，他认为美国不会重演2025年4月2日的情景。当时特朗普总统 宣布加征激进关税，导致市场暴跌20%。鲁比尼说："我当然不认为会出现类似4月2日的情况。"但他仍 发出警告，明确指出经济路径正在收窄，美联储的行动空间有限。 该ETF持有黄金、短期美国政府债券和农产品等组合。这种配置在某些时候有所帮助，但在6月等平静 月份也 ...

Group 1 - Renowned economist and investor Nouriel Roubini predicts a challenging period for the US economy, expecting the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index to reach approximately 3.5% by year-end, with economic growth potentially turning negative [1] - Roubini describes the second half of the year as a "mini-stagflation shock," indicating that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates until at least December [1] - The Atlas America Fund (USAF), managed by Roubini, aims to mitigate various economic risks, including structural high inflation and climate change, and has shown a steady performance since its launch [2][3] Group 2 - The USAF has a small asset size of approximately $17 million and has increased by over 5% since its inception, demonstrating defensive characteristics during market downturns [2] - The fund's portfolio includes gold, short-term US government bonds, and exposure to agricultural commodities, with recent adjustments made to increase holdings in defense technology and cybersecurity stocks [2][3] - Roubini's significant investment in gold reflects a belief that the world is moving away from the US dollar, although he does not foresee a collapse of the dollar [3]