Core Points - The U.S. is intensifying trade negotiations with major partners as the August 1 tariff deadline approaches, with President Trump asserting that the deadline will not be extended [1] - Trump plans to impose a 25% tariff on Indian goods starting August 1, which is higher than the 15%-20% range for other Asian countries, and threatens additional penalties due to India's energy purchases from Russia [1] - Despite the tense diplomatic environment, the U.S. market remains relatively calm, with the S&P 500 index reaching a historical high, although some Wall Street firms warn that the market may be underestimating the potential impact of trade policy shifts [1][4] Negotiation Dynamics - As the deadline nears, Canada and Mexico have sent delegations to Washington for intense closed-door talks, but the outcome remains uncertain [2] - Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney expressed cautious optimism about the negotiations, indicating they are complex and may not conclude by the deadline [2] - The Trump administration announced a preliminary trade agreement with South Korea, which includes a 15% tariff and a commitment from South Korea to invest $350 billion in U.S. projects [2] Trump's Involvement - President Trump is deeply involved in the negotiations, often overruling senior aides and demanding more concessions from other countries [3] - Trump's personal intervention extends to specific discussions, including direct communication with India's trade minister [3] - A new executive order is expected to be signed by Trump to finalize tariff rates and prevent automatic reversion to previously announced levels [3] Market Reactions - The U.S. financial markets show resilience, with the S&P 500 index and the dollar reaching multi-month highs, as traders bet that Trump will not implement drastic tariffs [4] - Analysts from Morgan Stanley caution against complacency, noting that while the economic data has not collapsed, the potential impact of trade policies should not be underestimated [5] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin downplayed the potential negative effects of retaliatory tariffs, suggesting that short-term tariffs would not lead to a catastrophic outcome if negotiations continue in good faith [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - PX has a tight supply - demand situation, with a unilateral trend of being oscillatingly strong and a strategy of rolling long on the monthly spread. PTA's unilateral trend is strong, and one should pay attention to the spread between going long on PTA and shorting PF. MEG's 9 - 1 monthly spread should be in a reverse spread strategy, and its unilateral trend has turned strong [1][6][7]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Overview - PX: On the 23rd, the PX price was weakly maintained. The price of naphtha at the end of the session was weakly stalemated. The PX - naphtha spread on the 23rd was 274.30 dollars/ton, down 2.66 dollars/ton from the previous closing price. The market participants attributed the weakness to concerns about the progress of global trade negotiations between the US and its major Asian partners [3][5]. - MEG: A 700,000 - ton/year MEG plant in the US has been shut down for maintenance recently, and the restart time is to be determined [5]. - Polyester: On the 23rd, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were average, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 58%. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were differentiated, with an average sales - to - production ratio estimated at 7 - 80% by 3:30 pm. On the 22nd, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang at the end of the session were booming, with an average sales - to - production ratio estimated at over 700% [5][6]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX is 0, PTA is 0, and MEG is 1. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval, where -2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [6]. Views and Suggestions - PX: The supply - demand remains tight. Domestic plant operating rates have declined, and some plants have unplanned load reductions. In the second half of the month, attention should be paid to the possible maintenance of Tianjin Petrochemical. PX has a unilateral oscillatingly strong trend, and one should roll long on the monthly spread [6]. - PTA: The unilateral trend is strong. One should pay attention to the spread of going long on PTA and shorting PF. The inventory of downstream polyester has decreased, the probability of production cuts has declined, the inventory accumulation speed of PTA has slowed down, and one should conduct interval operations on the monthly spread [6]. - MEG: The 9 - 1 monthly spread should be in a reverse spread strategy. The unilateral trend has turned strong. The continuous rise in coal prices provides cost support for coal - chemical varieties, and the long - term trend is expected to be strong [7].

Group 1 - Economist Nouriel Roubini predicts that the U.S. core inflation rate will rise to 3.5% by the end of 2025, indicating a slowdown in economic growth and potential recession in the second half of this year [1] - Roubini warns that inflation remains too high, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to shift its policy, as the core personal consumption expenditure index remains stubbornly above target levels [1] - He anticipates a "mild stagflation shock" and expects global trade negotiations to cool down, potentially leading to many countries facing tariffs of around 15% [1] Group 2 - Roubini is the fund manager of the Atlas U.S. Fund (USAF), which aims to protect investors from inflation, economic shocks, and climate instability, currently managing assets of $17 million [2] - Since its launch in November, USAF has risen over 5%, although it has underperformed compared to the S&P 500 index [2] - The fund focuses on stable returns rather than high returns, appealing to investors expecting slow, long-term instability rather than sudden collapse [2] Group 3 - USAF has recently increased its exposure to cybersecurity and defense technology while buying short-term inflation-protected bonds and reducing real estate holdings [3] - Roubini believes that the global economy is gradually moving away from the dollar, with investors preparing for this shift [3] - The fund's portfolio includes gold, short-term U.S. government bonds, and agricultural products, which have shown mixed performance [2][3] Group 4 - Roubini's outlook includes rising inflation, slowing growth, geopolitical uncertainty, and tightening global financial conditions [4]

Group 1 - OPEC+ is planning to accelerate production increases in response to market share concerns, shifting its focus from supporting high oil prices to defending market share by 2025 [1][2] - In the first half of the year, WTI and Brent crude oil prices have dropped over 9% due to global economic uncertainties, despite a temporary spike of over 15% during the Israel-Palestine conflict [2] - Eight major OPEC+ members have agreed to release production at a rate of 411,000 barrels per day, completing 62% of their planned increase of 2.2 million barrels [2] Group 2 - Global crude oil inventories have increased by approximately 170 million barrels in less than four months, indicating potential supply surplus in the market [3] - OPEC+ is establishing a mechanism to assess production capacities, which has been a contentious issue among member countries, with some seeking higher quotas due to increased production [3] - Geopolitical factors, including U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations and trade agreements, are expected to continue influencing market volatility [4] Group 3 - Concerns over OPEC+ production exceeding expectations have led to profit-taking in the market, with investors adopting a wait-and-see approach [5] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its global oil demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, citing economic challenges and the rise of clean energy technologies [5] - There is a divergence in market outlook among financial institutions, with some predicting oil prices around $60 by year-end, while others, like Barclays, have raised their price forecasts due to improved demand outlook [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the digital services tax is a crucial part of global trade negotiations [1] Group 2 - The White House Economic Council Director, Hassett, emphasizes the importance of addressing digital services tax in international trade discussions [1]

Group 1 - Airbus predicts that the global commercial aircraft fleet will double in the next 20 years, reaching nearly 50,000 aircraft, driven by rapid growth in markets like India [1] - By 2044, the global active fleet is expected to increase by 24,480 aircraft, with significant contributions from single-aisle aircraft like the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 [1] - Airbus anticipates that the Indian domestic aviation network will become the fastest-growing aviation market, while China will become the largest market in terms of capacity [1] Group 2 - Airbus CEO Christian Scherer noted that there has not been a fundamental shift in customer demand outside the U.S. domestic market, with continued interest in their products [2] - Despite easing supply chain disruptions from the pandemic, some components remain in short supply, affecting aircraft deliveries, particularly for the A320neo and A350 models [2] - India has emerged as the world's third-largest domestic aviation market, with a growing affluent population driving future aircraft demand, as evidenced by Indian airlines ordering 570 aircraft from Airbus and Boeing since 2023 [2]

| 资产类别 | 核心逻辑观点 | 配置建议 | | --- | --- | --- | | A股大盘 | > 颠簸与变局将近,以稳应变: | 中国语 | | | ◆ 国内经济基本面:关税反复,总需求回落压力上升,需关注政策发力的对冲效果: | | | | ◆ 资金面:A股成交额回落至"9.24"以来的低位,市场观望情绪上升· | | | | ◆ 政策面:短期内以落实已部署正常政策为主,下半年或有增量政策; | | | | ◆ 外部环境:关税谈判期仅剩月余,不确定性有抬头的风险,且不可预测性较强。 | | | | > 关税豁免期临近结束(7月8日),变盘节点临近,6-7月或先抑后扬:关税豁免期仅剩月余,不确定性 | | | | 抗动或上升,目市场成交活跃度回落,市场临沂变盘。此外,结构上或将出现风格变化,今年以来市场 | | | | 缩圈至更为极致的"杠铃"策略 -- 大盘权重+微盘,即以银行为代表的权重以及以微盛股指数为代表 | | | | 的方向表现更为突出。但这一趋势当前面临风险收益性价比偏低的阻力，导致市场活跃度下降、小微盘 | | | | 题材方向轮动加快,对赚钱效应形成拖露,处于高位的大盘权更、微 ...

Group 1 - The court has halted Trump's tariff policy, adding uncertainty to global trade negotiations [1] - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate increased risks of rising unemployment and inflation [1] - The Bank of Korea's governor revealed that Asian countries are in foreign exchange negotiations with the U.S. [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Index shows a bullish sentiment of 79% and bearish sentiment of 21% [3] - The S&P 500 Index has a bullish sentiment of 70% and bearish sentiment of 30% [3] - The Nasdaq Index reflects a bullish sentiment of 74% and bearish sentiment of 26% [3] - The Dow Jones Index has a bullish sentiment of 31% and bearish sentiment of 69% [3] - The Nikkei 225 Index shows a bullish sentiment of 54% and bearish sentiment of 46% [3] - The DAX 40 Index has a bullish sentiment of 33% and bearish sentiment of 67% [3] Group 3 - The Euro/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 54% and bearish sentiment of 46% [3] - The Euro/GBP pair shows a bullish sentiment of 12% and bearish sentiment of 88% [3] - The Euro/JPY pair has a bullish sentiment of 71% and bearish sentiment of 29% [3] - The Euro/AUD pair reflects a bullish sentiment of 16% and bearish sentiment of 84% [3] - The GBP/USD pair shows a bullish sentiment of 25% and bearish sentiment of 75% [3] - The GBP/JPY pair has a bullish sentiment of 33% and bearish sentiment of 67% [3] - The USD/JPY pair reflects a bullish sentiment of 31% and bearish sentiment of 69% [3] - The USD/CAD pair shows a bullish sentiment of 44% and bearish sentiment of 56% [3] - The USD/CHF pair has a bullish sentiment of 87% and bearish sentiment of 13% [3] Group 4 - The AUD/USD pair shows a bullish sentiment of 75% and bearish sentiment of 25% [4] - The AUD/JPY pair has a bullish sentiment of 62% and bearish sentiment of 38% [4] - The CAD/JPY pair reflects a bullish sentiment of 72% and bearish sentiment of 28% [4] - The NZD/USD pair shows a bullish sentiment of 49% and bearish sentiment of 51% [4] - The NZD/JPY pair has a bullish sentiment of 71% and bearish sentiment of 29% [4] - The USD/CNH pair reflects a bullish sentiment of 85% and bearish sentiment of 15% [4]