核心观点： 盈利加速修复，下半年杠杆有所收缩。公司披露2025 年年报，营收249.72 亿元，同比增长19.53%；归 母净利润123.50 亿元，同比增长18.91%。2025 年剔除后杠杆倍数降至4.34，加权平均ROE 升至9.94%。 盈利预测与投资建议。顺周期修复叠加提升资本市场内在稳定性保障市场活跃度，公司盈利稳健、用资 优势突出，发力零售及机构两端的客群数量及质量提升，投行及投行资本化发力提升。预计公司2026- 2027 年归母净利润分别为141 亿元、164 亿元，每股净资产为15.06/16.45 元，鉴于近五年PB 中枢0.9- 1.8 倍，给予2026 年1.3 倍PB 估值，A 股合理价值为19.58 元/股，鉴于AH 溢价对应H 股合理价值16.88 港币/股，维持A、H 股"买入"评级。（HKD/CNY=0.88） 客群基础壮大推动泛零售业务优势巩固与高质量发展。2025 年（1）经纪业务收入同比+45%。股基交 易额市占率微降至4.49%，公司APP 用户人均单日使用时长位居前十大券商首位。代销净收入同比 +43.9%，系统构建以"公募优选""私募50"和"雏鹰"为核心的优选 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A/Buy-H" with a current price of CNY 15.31 and HKD 13.20, and a fair value of CNY 19.58 and HKD 16.88 [3]. Core Insights - The company has shown steady growth in profitability, with a reported revenue of CNY 24.972 billion for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.53%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 12.350 billion, up 18.91% [8][13]. - The company is focusing on wealth management transformation and enhancing its institutional business, with significant growth in brokerage and asset management services [8][23]. - The company is expected to maintain robust earnings, with projected net profits of CNY 14.109 billion in 2026 and CNY 16.409 billion in 2027, supported by a stable capital market environment [62]. Summary by Sections 1. Steady Profit Growth - Revenue for 2025 reached CNY 24.972 billion, a 19.53% increase year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 12.350 billion, up 18.91% [13]. - The company's leverage ratio slightly decreased to 4.34, with a return on equity (ROE) of 9.94% [14]. 2. Balanced Business Recovery and Wealth Management Transformation - The brokerage business saw a revenue increase of 45% in 2025, with a slight decline in market share to 1.85% [24]. - The company expanded its client base significantly, with a 55.41% increase in private equity trading assets [28]. - The asset management business generated stable income, with net revenue of CNY 8.73 billion, a 21.8% increase [40]. 3. Investment Business and Underwriting Recovery - The investment business reported a net income of CNY 85.79 billion, a 2.5% increase year-on-year [52]. - The underwriting business generated CNY 10.28 billion in revenue, a 20% increase, with significant growth in IPO underwriting [50]. 4. Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve net profits of CNY 14.109 billion in 2026 and CNY 16.409 billion in 2027, with a fair value estimate of CNY 19.58 per share [62].