东吴证券指出，技术择时模型显示，市场整体情绪较为亢奋，可能出现波动加剧的情况，但中期趋势仍 然良好，大趋势保持健康上涨。风格指数方面，成长风格表现突出，大盘成长指数涨幅达4.77%，而大 盘价值指数涨幅仅为1.56%，显示市场偏好成长型资产。行业层面，通信、电子等科技行业领涨，涨幅 分别达10.84%和8.95%，而房地产、煤炭等传统行业表现较弱。当前市场环境与2019-2020年高景气度投 资盛行的牛市类似，结构性行情将持续涌现，建议关注成长风格配置。 300增强ETF（561300）不仅紧跟沪深300指数，还叠加了量化策略，试图在优质beta的基础上追求超额 收益。 没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰沪深300增强策略ETF发起联接A（021847），国泰沪深300增强策略 ETF发起联接C（021848）。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资 ...

广 广发证券 广发证券2025年秋季策略会-余工论坛 智慧量化·未来投资 16:00 周飞鹏 广发证券金融工程资深分析师 基于多因子加权的ETF轮动策略 16:00 16:30 张钰东 广发证券金融工程资深分析师 如何利用聪明钱改进分析师预期 16:30 17:00 王小康 广发证券金融工程资深分析师 (98月27日 13:30-17:00 0 浦东香格里拉大酒店 浦江楼2楼北京厅 会议流程 多角度定量刻画指数拥挤度 15:00 AI复盘之精选策略组合 13:30 14:00 安宁宁 广发证券金融工程首席分析师 面向通用模型的时序增强学习 14:00 14:30 陈原文 广发证券金融工程联席首席分析师 可转债指数择时的三个视角 14:30 15:00 张 超 广发证券金融工程资深分析师 15:30 李 豪 广发证券金融工程资深分析师 龙头扩散效应行业轮动 15:30 - 欢迎 扫 码 报 名 - ...

广发基金胡骏： 以量化策略为引擎 深耕A+H红利资产 因此，在高股息策略中，他主要从两个维度获取收益：一是选择行业成熟、估值较低的龙头公司，这类 公司的商业模式清晰、盈利稳定，现金流充裕、资本开支需求不大，且分红意愿强烈，投资者既能享受 稳定的股息收益，也能获得估值修复带来的回报；二是选择派息意愿较高、愿意和股东分享收益、存在 一定成长空间的"小而美"公司。 在管理广发高股息优享时，胡骏始终围绕"高分红、低估值、高盈利质量"三个维度来筛选个股。通过长 期跟踪分红稳定且具备持续增长能力的公司，他构建了一个安全边际较高、分红较为稳定的股票池。最 新定期报告显示，截至二季度末，该基金前十大重仓股的平均股息率达6.08%。该基金港股仓位为 14.13%，也体现了他对跨市场红利资产的关注。 虽然红利资产今年以来表现不如前两年出彩，但胡骏认为，中长期看，红利板块依然具备坚实的配置价 值：一方面，高股息资产能够提供稳定现金流和相对较低的风险；另一方面，在分红机制持续完善的趋 势下，红利类资产的吸引力正在增强。 量化赋能高股息策略 高股息为投资奠定了安全边际，而量化方法的引入则为策略插上了"翅膀"。胡骏解释称，高股息策略的 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that the A-share market is experiencing a gradual recovery in sentiment, with structural opportunities emerging, particularly in mid-cap growth stocks that were previously undervalued [1][2] - The market is entering a critical window for style rebalancing, with a shift in risk appetite towards rational equilibrium, leading to potential investment opportunities in quality mid-cap growth stocks driven by valuation recovery and performance improvement [1][2] - The launch of the CITIC Prudential CSI A500 Index Enhanced Securities Investment Fund aims to capture excess returns through quantitative models amid changing market styles [1][2] Group 2 - The CITIC Prudential CSI A500 Index is seen as having high cost-effectiveness for allocation, with a significant overlap with the CSI 300 Index and inclusion of high-growth sectors like semiconductor equipment and industrial robots [2] - The index reflects the performance of 500 representative listed companies across various industries, aiming to depict the overall performance of core assets amid China's economic transformation [2] - The investment strategy focuses on both fundamental analysis and quantitative factors, with a particular emphasis on identifying mispriced opportunities in mid-cap stocks [3][5] Group 3 - The quantitative enhancement strategy is divided into two approaches: one focusing on fundamental alpha factors for stocks overlapping with the CSI 300 Index, and the other leveraging quantitative factors to identify mispriced mid-cap stocks [3][5] - The team has shifted from static risk analysis to a more dynamic risk management approach, allowing for customized risk thresholds based on various factors such as sentiment and liquidity [5][6] - Continuous iteration and adaptation of quantitative strategies are emphasized, particularly in response to changing market conditions and the effectiveness of different factors [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming 2025 Autumn Strategy Conference hosted by GF Securities, focusing on various investment strategies and market analysis techniques, particularly in the context of AI and quantitative finance [2][4]. Group 1: Conference Overview - The conference is scheduled for August 27, 2025, from 13:30 to 17:00 at the Pudong Shangri-La Hotel, featuring multiple sessions on investment strategies [2]. - Key topics include quantitative analysis of index crowding, AI-driven strategy selection, and the timing of convertible bond indices [2][3]. Group 2: Featured Analysts and Topics - An Ningning, Chief Analyst of Financial Engineering, will present on time-series enhanced learning for general models [2]. - Chen Yuanwen, Co-Chief Analyst of Financial Engineering, will discuss three perspectives on convertible bond index timing [2]. - Zhang Chaowill focus on the diffusion effect of leading stocks and industry rotation [4]. - Zhang Yudong will present a multi-factor weighted ETF rotation strategy [5]. - Wang Xiaokang will explore how to leverage smart money to improve analyst expectations [6].

Core Insights - Since the "9·24" market rally began, small-cap funds have averaged a return of over 84%, with more than half of these products now subject to purchase restrictions [1][4]. Performance Summary - The A-share market has seen a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing the previous high of 3674 points set on October 8 last year, marking a nearly four-year high since December 14, 2021 [2]. - The micro-cap index has surged by 120.96% since September 24 last year, with a year-to-date increase of 55.71%. The ChiNext small-cap index and the Guozheng 2000 index have risen by 83% and 68%, respectively, ranking among the top two of 20 Guozheng scale indices [2]. - As of August 15, 39 small-cap funds have achieved an average return of 84.6%, with 12 funds seeing net value increases exceeding 100% [2]. Fund Restrictions - Currently, 21 small-cap funds are either suspended from new subscriptions or large subscriptions, accounting for nearly 54% of the total [4]. - The average fund size of small-cap funds is relatively small, with most below 4 billion yuan, and 32 funds having sizes under 1 billion yuan [4]. Market Dynamics - The strong performance of small-cap stocks is attributed to policy support, liquidity easing, valuation recovery, and capital speculation [3]. - Despite a recent pullback in June, small-cap stocks have continued to perform well due to policy dividends and liquidity support [3]. - There are differing opinions on the future performance of small-cap stocks, with some believing that the small-cap style will continue to dominate due to market sentiment and favorable liquidity conditions [4]. Valuation Concerns - Some analysts express skepticism about the sustainability of small-cap stock gains, citing high price-to-earnings ratios and a lack of earnings support for micro-cap stocks [5]. - The rise in small-cap stocks is primarily driven by liquidity rather than substantial earnings growth, raising concerns about potential valuation bubbles [6].

Group 1 - The equity market has been heating up recently, with strong performance across multiple indices, particularly in sectors like artificial intelligence, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military industry, leading to a rapid increase in fund net values [1] - Many high-performing funds have chosen to implement purchase limits despite the bullish market, attracting market attention [1] Group 2 - Since mid-August, several high-performing funds have announced purchase limit measures, including the China Europe Medical Innovation Fund, which has raised its daily subscription limit to 100,000 yuan, having achieved a year-to-date increase of over 75% [3] - The Zhaoshang Growth Quantitative Selection Fund has tightened its purchase limits twice in a short period, first to 200,000 yuan and then to 20,000 yuan, reflecting the intense demand for subscriptions [3] - The Yongying Ruixin Mixed Fund has also joined the limit purchase ranks, setting a daily subscription cap of 1 million yuan, with a year-to-date return exceeding 47% and its scale increasing from less than 1.4 billion yuan to over 5 billion yuan [3] Group 3 - Fund companies are implementing purchase limits primarily due to two considerations: strategy capacity constraints and the protection of existing holders' interests [4] - Small-cap style funds have performed well this year, with the CSI 2000 index rising approximately 30%, but these strategies often face capacity bottlenecks that can impact investment efficiency [4] - The limits on quantitative funds are largely due to the characteristics of the strategy, as small-cap stocks have relatively poor liquidity, and a large influx of funds can increase trading costs [4] Group 4 - Protecting the interests of existing holders is another significant consideration, as large inflows at high net asset values can force fund managers to build positions at unfavorable times, increasing trading costs and potentially diluting existing holders' returns [4] - Some funds' purchase limits are also related to specific investment areas, such as medical innovation and artificial intelligence, where high-quality targets are relatively scarce, and rapid scale growth may lead fund managers to invest in suboptimal targets, affecting overall returns [4]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the backtest of the predictive growth factor shows no significant excess returns before 2022, with a notable differentiation occurring in 2022, where the revenue and net profit growth group (0-15%) performed the best since then, attributed to a market style shift towards value investing due to macroeconomic pressures and declining market risk appetite [1][14]. - The report highlights the introduction of the PEG factor to optimize the investment portfolio, which measures the relationship between valuation and growth potential, suggesting that high-growth companies should have a higher PEG valuation level compared to slower-growing companies [2][21]. - The PEG (1-3) factor was found to be most effective in the revenue and net profit growth group (50%+), with the cumulative return for the revenue growth (50%+) PEG (1-3) portfolio reaching 275.45% and the net profit growth (50%+) PEG (1-3) portfolio achieving 296.87% over the period from July 1, 2014, to July 25, 2025 [3][50]. Group 2 - The report discusses the historical performance of growth and value styles in the A-share market, noting a cyclical rotation approximately every four years, with growth style underperforming since 2022 due to economic pressures and liquidity tightening [7]. - The report provides a detailed analysis of the backtest results based on revenue growth, categorizing companies into four groups based on their predicted revenue growth rates, with the 0-15% growth group showing the best performance since 2022 [9][14]. - The report also analyzes net profit growth, indicating that the net profit growth (0-15%) group similarly outperformed in the same period, reflecting a consistent trend across both revenue and net profit growth metrics [15][19]. Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of adjusting PEG valuation levels based on historical context and market conditions, with a recommendation that a PEG below 1.0 is considered a reasonable valuation standard [20][21]. - The backtest results for different revenue growth groups show that the 0-15% revenue growth group performed best with a PEG (0-1) range, achieving a cumulative return of 249.25% [24][27]. - The report concludes that the PEG (1-3) factor is particularly effective for high-growth companies, with significant excess returns observed in both revenue and net profit growth groups exceeding 50% [35][46].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the outstanding performance of private equity funds in the A-share market, with an average return of 11.94% for 11,880 private securities products as of July, 86.97% of which achieved positive returns [1] - Stock strategies have shown particularly strong performance, with 7,760 stock strategy products averaging a return of 14.5%, leading among five major strategies, and 88.2% of these products achieving positive returns [1][2] - Top private equity firms have outperformed the industry average, with 55 billion-level private equity firms averaging a return of 16.6%, and 98.18% of them achieving positive returns [1] Group 2 - Multi-asset strategies follow closely behind stock strategies, with 1,364 multi-asset strategy products averaging a return of 9.59%, and 86.66% of these products achieving positive returns [2] - Combination funds have shown stable performance, with 405 combination funds averaging a return of 8.57%, and 92.10% of these products achieving positive returns [2] - In the bond strategy sector, 1,076 bond strategy products have averaged a return of 5.16%, with 91.54% achieving positive returns [3] Group 3 - The outlook for the market is optimistic, supported by reduced global trade uncertainties and the effectiveness of China's economic structural adjustments, with a focus on sectors like technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and non-bank financials [3] - The company maintains a high position in its portfolio, particularly in sectors such as overseas AI, domestic computing power, and new consumption [3]

Core Viewpoint - The year 2023 is identified as a significant year for quantitative strategies, with many private equity funds reporting returns exceeding 40% due to favorable market conditions and the effective use of alternative data and artificial intelligence [1][2][3]. Group 1: Performance of Quantitative Private Equity - As of August 8, 2023, several quantitative stock selection strategies have reported returns over 40%, with five key private equity products exceeding 50% [2][5]. - The "air index increase" strategy has shown remarkable performance, allowing for flexible stock selection across the entire market without being tied to specific indices [2][3]. - The average return for 36 billion-level quantitative private equity firms has reached 18.92%, with all firms achieving positive returns [5][6]. Group 2: Market Environment and Strategy Adaptation - The active A-share market and high volatility have provided numerous trading opportunities for quantitative strategies, enhancing their ability to capture alpha returns [3][6]. - The integration of alternative data, continuous signal mining, and advancements in artificial intelligence have significantly improved the efficiency of quantitative models [3][4]. - The current market environment, characterized by increased liquidity and a favorable policy backdrop, has further supported the performance of quantitative strategies [6][7]. Group 3: Comparison with Traditional Strategies - Quantitative private equity has outperformed traditional subjective private equity this year, with 32 out of 42 billion-level private equity firms achieving returns over 10% being quantitative [4][5]. - The flexibility of quantitative strategies allows for dynamic adjustments in stock selection, enabling them to effectively navigate market fluctuations and capture structural opportunities [4][6].