核心观点： 盈利加速修复，下半年杠杆有所收缩。公司披露2025 年年报，营收249.72 亿元，同比增长19.53%；归 母净利润123.50 亿元，同比增长18.91%。2025 年剔除后杠杆倍数降至4.34，加权平均ROE 升至9.94%。 盈利预测与投资建议。顺周期修复叠加提升资本市场内在稳定性保障市场活跃度，公司盈利稳健、用资 优势突出，发力零售及机构两端的客群数量及质量提升，投行及投行资本化发力提升。预计公司2026- 2027 年归母净利润分别为141 亿元、164 亿元，每股净资产为15.06/16.45 元，鉴于近五年PB 中枢0.9- 1.8 倍，给予2026 年1.3 倍PB 估值，A 股合理价值为19.58 元/股，鉴于AH 溢价对应H 股合理价值16.88 港币/股，维持A、H 股"买入"评级。（HKD/CNY=0.88） 客群基础壮大推动泛零售业务优势巩固与高质量发展。2025 年（1）经纪业务收入同比+45%。股基交 易额市占率微降至4.49%，公司APP 用户人均单日使用时长位居前十大券商首位。代销净收入同比 +43.9%，系统构建以"公募优选""私募50"和"雏鹰"为核心的优选 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A/Buy-H" with a current price of CNY 15.31 and HKD 13.20, and a fair value of CNY 19.58 and HKD 16.88 [3]. Core Insights - The company has shown steady growth in profitability, with a reported revenue of CNY 24.972 billion for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.53%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 12.350 billion, up 18.91% [8][13]. - The company is focusing on wealth management transformation and enhancing its institutional business, with significant growth in brokerage and asset management services [8][23]. - The company is expected to maintain robust earnings, with projected net profits of CNY 14.109 billion in 2026 and CNY 16.409 billion in 2027, supported by a stable capital market environment [62]. Summary by Sections 1. Steady Profit Growth - Revenue for 2025 reached CNY 24.972 billion, a 19.53% increase year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 12.350 billion, up 18.91% [13]. - The company's leverage ratio slightly decreased to 4.34, with a return on equity (ROE) of 9.94% [14]. 2. Balanced Business Recovery and Wealth Management Transformation - The brokerage business saw a revenue increase of 45% in 2025, with a slight decline in market share to 1.85% [24]. - The company expanded its client base significantly, with a 55.41% increase in private equity trading assets [28]. - The asset management business generated stable income, with net revenue of CNY 8.73 billion, a 21.8% increase [40]. 3. Investment Business and Underwriting Recovery - The investment business reported a net income of CNY 85.79 billion, a 2.5% increase year-on-year [52]. - The underwriting business generated CNY 10.28 billion in revenue, a 20% increase, with significant growth in IPO underwriting [50]. 4. Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve net profits of CNY 14.109 billion in 2026 and CNY 16.409 billion in 2027, with a fair value estimate of CNY 19.58 per share [62].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the role of the securities industry in supporting national strategies and economic development through innovative financial services, aligning with the "Five Major Articles" initiative [1][2]. Group 1: Strategic Development - The company has defined a new five-year strategic path focusing on "intensive, digital, technological, and international" development to enhance financial services for new productive forces [2]. - The company aims to actively serve the real economy and fulfill its mission as a central state-owned enterprise [3]. Group 2: Technological and Financial Integration - The company recognizes technology as the primary productive force and innovation as the main driving force, establishing a capital service system that covers the entire development cycle of enterprises [4]. - It has built a digital knowledge base for key industrial chains, focusing on sectors like new energy and biomedicine, and has integrated resources through data sharing with the China Merchants Group [5]. Group 3: Investment and Financing Achievements - In recent years, the company has facilitated significant capital market entries for technology firms, completing 8 technology innovation equity financing projects totaling 10.458 billion yuan in 2024, with a 110.10% year-on-year increase in underwriting technology innovation bonds [6]. - Cumulatively, the company has invested approximately 7.86 billion yuan in technology innovation since 2020, supporting key technological advancements [7]. Group 4: Green Finance Initiatives - The company is developing a green finance ecosystem that integrates investment, product innovation, and industry services to promote low-carbon transformation [11]. - Since 2022, it has assisted in raising 24.57 billion yuan for "dual carbon" and new energy-related enterprises and underwritten green bonds totaling 43.23 billion yuan [12]. Group 5: Digital Transformation and Inclusive Finance - The company is advancing its digital transformation by enhancing infrastructure and security systems, aiming to integrate AI into business innovation and customer service [13][14]. - It has launched the "Lingyue Plan" to provide comprehensive financial services to early-stage quality enterprises, with 554 companies included in the program by the end of 2024 [16]. Group 6: Wealth Management and Social Responsibility - The company is expanding its wealth management offerings and has introduced a "public fund selection" brand, serving over 80,200 clients with a total asset scale of approximately 5.112 billion yuan [17]. - It is also enhancing its agricultural financial services and developing a pension financial service system to support residents' retirement needs [18].

Core Viewpoint - The company is committed to serving the real economy and has outlined a new five-year strategy focusing on "intensive, digital, technology-driven, and international" development paths to support the growth of new productive forces [1][2]. Group 1: Technology and Innovation - The company emphasizes the importance of technology as the primary productive force and innovation as the main driving force, establishing a capital service system that covers the entire lifecycle of enterprise development [3]. - It has built a digital knowledge base for key industrial chains, focusing on sectors such as new energy and biomedicine, and has completed 8 technology innovation equity financing projects totaling 10.458 billion yuan in 2024 [3]. - The company has invested approximately 7.86 billion yuan in technology innovation since 2020, actively supporting key core technology breakthroughs [3][4]. Group 2: Green Finance - The company is driving low-carbon transformation through a diversified financial toolset, creating a green finance ecosystem that integrates investment and product innovation [5]. - Since 2022, it has facilitated equity financing of 24.57 billion yuan for companies related to carbon neutrality and new energy, and underwrote green bonds totaling 43.23 billion yuan [5]. Group 3: Inclusive Finance - The company has launched the "Leap Plan" to provide comprehensive financial services for early-stage quality enterprises, with 554 companies included in the program by the end of 2024, totaling an investment of 2.5 billion yuan [7]. - It has expanded its "insurance + futures" business to support agricultural production and is developing a pension financial service system to enhance residents' retirement security [9]. Group 4: Strategic Partnerships and Industry Integration - The company has organized industry chain connection activities to facilitate collaboration between emerging technology companies and industry leaders, resulting in over 50 companies achieving business connections in various sectors [8]. - It is enhancing its wealth management services by transitioning to a "buy-side advisory" model, serving over 80,200 clients with assets under management of approximately 5.112 billion yuan [8].