证券行业分析及重点标的推荐 行业研究 政策暖风与基本面共振进行时，证券行业迎来 ROE 与估 值双击新周期 ➢ 政策暖风频吹，杠杆松绑驱动 ROE 中枢上移： "十五五"规划 明确资本市场新定位，监管逻辑从"防风险"转向"促发展"，拟 对优质券商适度放宽资本运作限制。当前国内券商杠杆率显著低于 国际投行，随着风险控制指标体系优化及杠杆天花板有序上移，行 业资本使用效率将大幅改善。头部机构凭借雄厚资本与成熟风控， 最具扩表潜力，有望通过重资本业务抢占份额。政策"铁三角"支 撑下，行业 ROE 中枢有望突破 10%，迈入新一轮上升通道，开启从 "交易驱动"向"资本+智力"双轮驱动的转型新篇章。 ➢ 并购整合加速，行业集中度迈向新台阶：监管层明确提出培育 全球一流投行目标，并购重组成为供给侧改革核心路径。在"做优 做强"主旋律下，国联并购民生、国泰君安合并海通等案例验证了 资源整合的高效性。预计央地国资将成为主要推手，推动行业从同 质化竞争向差异化、专业化进阶。通过客户共享、业务互补及后台 协同降本，行业集中度有望在 2026 年提升至 CR5 接近 50%。具备强 大资本实力与跨周期经营能力的龙头券商将持续获得政 ...

在今年存款利率持续下行、大量高息定存集中到期的双重压力下，年初银行揽储呈现出分化态势。一边 是国有大行"按兵不动"，战略性放弃价格战，转而通过资产提升活动争夺客户的综合金融资产；另一边 是城商行、农商行逆势上调存款利率，甚至推出"存款送路费"等花式营销。这一"冷"一"热"的背后，既 是银行业净息差收窄下的现实抉择，也是从"规模扩张"向"财富管理"转型的缩影。 储户：从"抢存单"到"问理财" 春节过后，往往是银行揽储的黄金窗口期，但今年一线从业者感受到的却是另一番景象。华南地区一股 份行理财经理向记者坦言："客户对传统定期存款热情明显下降，更多人开始咨询理财、固收+等替代 产品。"这一微观变化，折射出今年"开门红"的深层转向。 中国人民银行最新发布的金融数据印证了这一趋势：1月住户存款增加2.13万亿元，但与2025年同期相 比，同比少增3.39万亿元；而非银行业金融机构存款则同比多增2.56万亿元。中国银河证券研报进一步 指出，居民存款增速与M2增速差值时隔7年半首次转负，这意味着居民资金正从单纯存款需求向多元资 产配置迁移。 这一现象的背后是存款利率持续下行。有储户对记者展示了2023年的存单——当时三年期 ...

Core Viewpoint - Southwest Securities announced a 6 billion yuan private placement just four days after the new refinancing policy was implemented, marking the first deal in the securities industry under the new regulations, which is seen as a significant move to test the waters [1][2][11] Fund Allocation - The 60 billion yuan will be allocated as follows: - Securities investment: up to 1.5 billion yuan - Debt repayment and working capital: up to 1.5 billion yuan - Asset management: up to 900 million yuan - Information technology and compliance risk control: up to 750 million yuan - Investment in subsidiaries: up to 600 million yuan - Wealth management: up to 500 million yuan - Investment banking: up to 250 million yuan - The two largest allocations are for securities investment and debt repayment, indicating that the brokerage is increasing its trading activities and addressing previous debts [4][15] Major Investors - The funding will involve up to 35 investors, with Chongqing state-owned assets committing 2.5 billion yuan, including 1.5 billion yuan from Yufu Holdings and 1 billion yuan from Chongqing Water Environment Group, indicating strong support from major stakeholders [6][16] Lock-up Period - The lock-up period for the investment is set at 60 months, signaling a long-term commitment rather than a short-term speculative approach, which is crucial in the current lukewarm market for brokerage stocks [17] Industry Context - This private placement is part of a broader trend in the securities industry, with several firms having already engaged in similar fundraising efforts since 2025, indicating a recovery in capital raising activities [18][20] - The move reflects a continued "capital replenishment wave" in the industry, with firms preparing for competition in proprietary trading, asset management, and investment banking [20] Regulatory Significance - The timing of this placement, shortly after the new refinancing policy aimed at supporting quality enterprises, suggests that regulators are endorsing this direction, potentially leading to more similar actions from other brokerages [20][21]

Core Viewpoint - The brokerage industry is undergoing a significant transformation from traditional brokerage services to wealth management, particularly evident during the pre-Spring Festival period, highlighting a shift in focus towards comprehensive asset allocation and investor education [2][9]. Group 1: Wealth Management Transition - Brokerages are increasingly positioning themselves as "financial stations" rather than mere trading platforms, emphasizing the importance of asset allocation and risk management to retain clients [8]. - The focus on wealth management is reflected in the types of products being promoted, with a preference for low-risk, short-term, and high-liquidity investments, such as cash management and fixed-income products [5][4]. - The shift in client behavior is notable, with investors now prioritizing liquidity over safety and returns, indicating a more rational and pragmatic approach to financial management [5][4]. Group 2: Investor Education and Protection - Investor education has become a key component of brokerage services, with firms implementing comprehensive strategies to protect clients from fraud, particularly during high-risk periods like the Spring Festival [3][4]. - Innovative educational methods, including live broadcasts and short videos, are being utilized to make investor education more relatable and effective [4]. - The emphasis on personalized service, especially for vulnerable groups like the elderly, showcases the industry's commitment to safeguarding clients' financial interests [4][3]. Group 3: Market Demand and Client Engagement - There has been a notable increase in client engagement, with a 30% rise in customer visits to brokerage offices during the week leading up to the Spring Festival, indicating heightened interest in financial products and services [7]. - Brokerages are actively hosting market seminars and personalized consultations to address client needs and enhance service efficiency, resulting in reduced waiting times for clients [7][8]. - The evolving landscape of client expectations is evident, as investors express a desire for more comprehensive financial services rather than just stock trading [9].

东吴证券研报指出，兴业证券财富管理与机构业务双轮驱动，新领导班子注入新活力。长期稳定的治理 结构，赋予公司良好的战略定力和执行力。纵观兴业证券最近25年的发展历程，公司从一家排名不到20 名的券商跻身行业前20位，最高曾进入前15位，得益于公司治理的良好正反馈以及管理层稳定，历任核 心管理层在公司深耕近十年。2025年6月公司新董事长苏军良上任，上任初期在财富管理、研究与机构 服务、风险管理三大条线启动组织架构优化改革。看好公司财富管理转型及组织架构调整带来的正向反 馈，预计公司2026年业绩有望继续较快增长。公司估值远低于行业平均，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The wealth management industry is transitioning from "product-centric" to "client-profit-centric," focusing on personalized and customized asset management services, as evidenced by the continuous growth of public fund scales, which reached 37.71 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, marking nine consecutive months of growth [4][5]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The public fund industry is facing challenges such as declining management fees and intensified competition, necessitating a return to client-centric approaches and demand insights [2][5]. - The shift towards client profitability is supported by regulatory changes, including the approval of fund advisory services, which enhance investor experience and promote a buyer's advisory model [6][7]. - The public fund sector is undergoing a "three-step" reform that impacts revenue and profit, requiring a focus on long-term investor profitability as a core metric [7]. Group 2: Company Strategy - The company aims to achieve high-quality development by focusing on four key positions: creating client value, discovering investment value, leading high-quality development, and contributing to the construction of a financial power [8][9]. - The company plans to enhance its integrated investment and research capabilities, leverage technology, and deepen its service to the real economy, transitioning from asset management to comprehensive wealth management [9][10]. - The product strategy includes optimizing the product structure to create a diversified ETF and index product system, transitioning from "fixed income" to "fixed income plus" strategies, and exploring new sources of returns [11]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The company anticipates structural opportunities in the stock market, particularly in sectors like technology, energy transition, and consumer recovery, with a focus on companies with genuine competitiveness [12]. - The bond market is expected to maintain strong allocation value, with investment opportunities arising from detailed exploration of yield spreads and the flexible application of "fixed income plus" strategies [12]. - Asset allocation strategies will emphasize balance and flexibility, moving from "single Beta" to "multiple Alpha" approaches, allowing investors to construct low-correlation portfolios across various asset classes [12].

本报记者 周尚伃 今年以来，证券行业资本运作的节奏明显加快。从华安证券拟提升对华富基金的"控制力"，到国联民生向民生证券的定 向"输血"，本轮券商针对子公司的资本动作呈现出两条明确路径：中小券商通过强化控制权以补齐业务牌照短板；头部及处于 整合期的券商则侧重于通过资本注入，撬动业务协同的增量空间。 盘古智库（北京）信息咨询有限公司高级研究员江瀚在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，券商在年内密集推进资本运 作，核心驱动力源于全面注册制深化与行业竞争加剧背景下，券商急需通过资本注入提升子公司净资本实力，以满足公募基 金、两融、衍生品等业务的监管门槛和风控要求。更深层次的逻辑在于，强化"母子协同"已成为战略必选项，如华安证券控股 华富基金，意在打通"投研—产品—渠道"闭环，从而提升综合财富管理能力。 强化"母子协同" 在财富管理转型向纵深推进的当下，公募基金牌照成为券商完善资管布局、提升客户服务能力的关键环节。对于中小券商 而言，通过收购或增资实现控股公募基金，是快速获取产品创设能力、优化收入结构的直接方式。 1月份，华安证券发布公告称，拟以2646.16万元增资华富基金，持股比例由49%提升至51%，旨在成为控股股 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The new leadership team has injected fresh vitality into the company, focusing on wealth management and institutional business as dual drivers for growth [7][25] - The company has a strong governance structure that has enabled it to rise from a lower ranking to a top position in the industry over the past 25 years [12][23] - The company is positioned to benefit from regional policy dividends and industrial upgrades due to its provincial background and control over significant local resources [23][25] - The company's operational indicators are entering a recovery growth phase, with significant increases in revenue and net profit expected in the coming years [25][27] Summary by Sections 1. New Leadership and Organizational Restructuring - The new chairman has initiated organizational restructuring across three main lines: wealth management, research and institutional services, and risk management [12][15] - The company has a stable governance structure that enhances strategic execution and decision-making [12][23] 2. Wealth Management and Institutional Business - The company is actively transforming its wealth management strategy, launching a new brand "Zhi Ji Li Cai" and three service solutions to enhance customer engagement [31][32] - The company has seen a significant increase in its investment advisory business, with a 526% growth in total assets under management as of October 2025 [32][34] 3. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts, estimating net profits of 2.945 billion, 3.787 billion, and 4.161 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 36%, 29%, and 10% [1][25] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to recover steadily, with a reported ROE of 4.37% for the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 2 percentage points year-on-year [27][25] 4. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company holds a dominant position in the regional capital market, serving over 70% of provincial state-owned enterprises and local governments [23][25] - The company has a diversified asset management strategy, controlling significant stakes in various funds, which has greatly enhanced its profit contribution [40][43]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is experiencing a recovery in operational metrics after a downturn in 2022 and 2023, with significant growth in revenue and net profit expected in 2024 and 2025 [25] - The new leadership team has initiated organizational restructuring aimed at enhancing wealth management and institutional services, which is expected to drive future growth [12][15] - The company benefits from its provincial background, holding a dominant position in the regional capital market, which provides it with unique resource advantages [23] Summary by Sections 1. New Leadership and Organizational Restructuring - The company has a stable governance structure that has contributed to its rise in the industry rankings over the past 25 years [12] - A new chairman has been appointed, and an organizational restructuring has been initiated focusing on wealth management, research, institutional services, and risk management [12][15] - The company is positioned as a key player in the regional market due to its provincial ownership, serving over 70% of provincial state-owned enterprises [23] 2. Wealth Management and Institutional Business - The company is focusing on dual drivers of wealth management and institutional business, with a significant recovery in operational metrics [25] - A new wealth management brand "Zhi Ji Li Cai" has been launched, along with three service solutions aimed at enhancing customer engagement [31] - The company has seen a substantial increase in its investment advisory business, with a 526% growth in total assets under management as of October 2025 [32] 3. Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue and net profit are projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 29 billion, 38 billion, and 42 billion yuan for net profit in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to recover, with a reported ROE of 4.37% in the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 2 percentage points year-on-year [27] - The valuation of the company remains below the industry average, indicating potential for upside [25]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 中国证券业协会数据显示，证券业从业人数连续3年下滑，从2022年末35.61万人，减少至2025年末32.78 万人，近3万人离场。从结构来看，"一般证券业务"人员连续两年减少超过2万人。证券经纪人数量更是 每年下滑，8年间（2018年至2025年）累计减少逾6万人。 数据显示，2025年浙商证券在整体从业人员保持增长的同时，内部业务线条的人员结构出现明显调整。 截至2025年末，公司从业人员总数达4386人，较上年增加82人。其中，一般证券业务与证券经纪人分别 减少36人和22人；分析师人数由165人下降至152人；与之形成对比的是，投资顾问团队大幅扩张151 人，达到489人；保荐代表人则微增3人至139人。 | 浙商证券人数变化 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 分类 | 2024/12/31 | 2025/12/31 人数变化 | | | 从业人员数 | 4304 | 4386 | 82 | | 一般证券业务 | 3350 | 3314 | -36 | | 证券经纪人 | 310 | 288 ...