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航亚科技(688510):深度报告:全球商发紧缺,扩品有望加速
Guohai Securities· 2025-09-22 14:03
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The report addresses key issues such as global aviation demand changes from Boeing and Airbus orders and delivery capabilities, analysis of major engine models and components, and the growth drivers for the company's compressor blades and rotating components [9] - Global passenger turnover is recovering, with a record high seat occupancy rate, and nearly 80% of the current commercial aircraft will be replaced in the next 20 years [9] - Boeing and Airbus orders have significantly increased, with the company’s precision forging blade business expected to accelerate growth due to faster engine deliveries [9] - The company is entering the overseas rotating component business to create a second growth curve amid tight overseas supply chains [9] - The company possesses core technologies in precision forging blades and structural component machining, making it one of the few specialized enterprises capable of mass production of compressor blades for leading international engine manufacturers [9] Summary by Sections Market Data - Current price: 25.43 CNY - 52-week price range: 12.90-28.10 CNY - Total market capitalization: 6,570.67 million CNY - Average daily trading volume: 109.42 million CNY [6] Performance Metrics - The company’s stock has outperformed the CSI 300 index over 1 month (0.0%), 3 months (20.2%), and 12 months (95.7%) [7] - Revenue and net profit projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 904 million CNY, 1,234 million CNY, and 1,682 million CNY respectively, with corresponding net profits of 157 million CNY, 232 million CNY, and 345 million CNY [10] Revenue Breakdown - The company’s revenue from aviation products is projected to contribute 92% of total revenue in 2024, with a steady increase in gross margin [36][44] - The aviation product revenue for 2024 is expected to be 646 million CNY, with a gross margin of 38.1% [11] Financial Performance - The company has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.80% in revenue and 44.35% in net profit from 2018 to 2024 [35] - The weighted return on equity (ROE) for 2024 is projected to be 11.64%, indicating a recovery in profitability [55] Strategic Initiatives - The company has implemented a stock incentive plan to motivate talent, with performance targets set for net profit from 2024 to 2026 [60]
航亚科技20250910
2025-09-10 14:35
Summary of Hangya Technology Conference Call Company Overview - Hangya Technology specializes in precision forging and precision machining, with a strong technical advantage in both domestic and international markets [2][3] - The company was established in 2013 and went public on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board in 2020, initially partnering with Safran for low-pressure gas turbine blade manufacturing [2][6] - The chairman holds approximately 14% of shares, while Hangfa Assets holds about 5% [2][6] Core Business Segments - The core business consists of two main segments: precision forging and precision machining [4][21] - Precision forging is primarily used for compressor blade manufacturing, while precision machining covers critical components and has expanded into the medical field, supplying orthopedic parts to leading companies like Johnson & Johnson and Stryker [4][10] - The military aviation engine market is projected to demand approximately 40 billion RMB over the next five years, with the civil market averaging over 6 billion RMB annually [4][20] Market Performance and Growth - In the first half of 2025, the domestic aviation segment grew by approximately 8.3%, and the medical segment grew by about 16.7%, with domestic market growth exceeding 40% [2][14] - The international market is expected to see a decrease in overall business volume due to delivery expectations, but there is no long-term operational pressure [2][15] Competitive Landscape - Hangya Technology faces competition from companies in Germany, France, and Israel but has established stable relationships with major manufacturers like GE through its technological, quality, delivery, and cost advantages [2][8] - The company is involved in multiple engine models, including GE 9X, CFM 56, and LEAP series engines, indicating a strong position in the supply chain [11][9] Management and Strategic Direction - The management team has a strong technical background, with the chairman having over 30 years of experience in blade manufacturing [7] - The company has shifted its focus to profitable business segments since 2022, leading to a significant recovery in operational quality [6] Future Outlook - A stock incentive plan is set to be implemented in 2024, with a target net profit of 155 to 180 million RMB over the next three years, reflecting confidence in future growth [16] - The aviation manufacturing industry is experiencing a surge in orders, providing a strong demand outlook for Hangya Technology [23] Additional Insights - The precision forging process has evolved from cold to hot processing, offering advantages such as near-net shaping, improved manufacturing efficiency, and reduced costs [17] - The company’s international outsourcing capabilities are bolstered by stringent production controls and certifications, creating high industry barriers [18] - The medical sector's lower technical difficulty allows for quicker growth, enhancing overall profitability [10] Conclusion - Hangya Technology is well-positioned in the aviation manufacturing and medical sectors, with a robust growth trajectory supported by strategic partnerships and a focus on profitable operations. The company’s competitive advantages and market dynamics suggest a positive outlook for future performance.