Core Insights - The successful delivery of the first repaired engine by Zhuhai Mo Tian Yu Jin Wan Factory to China Southern Airlines marks a significant milestone in the MRO (Maintenance, Repair, Overhaul) capabilities of the airline [1][4] - The Jin Wan Factory, a joint venture between China Southern Airlines and German MTU Aero Engines, officially commenced operations in March 2023 and aims to enhance service quality and efficiency in engine maintenance [1][2] Group 1 - The Jin Wan Factory is expected to deliver over 50 engines this year, with an annual maintenance capacity projected to reach 260 engines after full production [2][5] - The factory's operational efficiency and advanced production management systems are designed to support the MRO network for GTF engines, indicating a commitment to high-quality service [2][5] - The combined maintenance capacity of the Zhuhai Mo Tian Yu facilities is anticipated to exceed 700 engines annually, positioning it as a potential leader in the global MRO market [5]

Core Insights - The successful delivery of the first PW1100G-JM engine by Zhuhai Motianyu Jinwan Factory to China Southern Airlines marks a significant milestone in the engine MRO (Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul) sector for the airline [1][5] - The Jinwan Factory, which began operations in March 2023, is a joint venture between China Southern Airlines and MTU Aero Engines, aimed at enhancing MRO capabilities [1][5] Company Developments - The Jinwan Factory is expected to deliver over 50 engines in 2023, with a projected annual maintenance capacity of 260 engines once fully operational [5] - Combined with its other facility, Zhuhai Motianyu aims to achieve an annual maintenance capacity exceeding 700 engines, positioning itself as a potential leader in the global MRO market [5][6] Industry Context - MTU Aero Engines, a key partner in this venture, reported a revenue of €7.5 billion for the fiscal year 2024 and maintains a significant presence in the global aviation market, servicing one-third of the commercial fleet [6] - The factory's strategic location near major cities like Hong Kong, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Macau enhances its operational advantages in the Asian aviation market [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongtai Securities indicates that the decline in supply growth presents an opportunity for improvement in the aviation industry, with expectations of a performance turning point for airlines due to favorable supply-demand dynamics, stable ticket prices, and high passenger load factors [1] Supply Side Analysis - The introduction of new aircraft is expected to slow down due to factors such as a slow recovery of the supply chain, retirement of old aircraft, insufficient new orders, and uncertainties in China-US relations. The projected supply growth rates (ASK) for the industry from 2025 to 2027 are 6.32%, 4.56%, and 2.26% respectively [1] - Boeing and Airbus are facing delivery delays, with 2024 deliveries expected to be 766 and 348 aircraft respectively, which do not return to pre-pandemic levels. The delivery progress for the first four months of 2025 is also lagging behind annual plans [1][2] - The shortage of engines is significantly constraining deliveries, with only 1,407 LEAP engines expected to be delivered in 2024, supporting only 700 new narrow-body aircraft, which is well below the pre-pandemic demand [1] Domestic Aircraft Production - The C909 aircraft is steadily increasing its production capacity, with a projected delivery of 35 units in 2024, while the C919 is expected to take longer to ramp up, with only 16 units delivered by the end of 2024 [2] - There are 195 total orders for the C909 and 330 confirmed orders for the C919, with significant deliveries planned from 2024 to 2031 [2] Inventory Perspective - The supply chain crisis persists, and the retirement of aircraft is expected to accelerate, with projected retirements of 134, 143, and 152 aircraft from 2025 to 2027 [4] - The utilization of wide-body aircraft remains low, with a significant shift in capacity allocation towards domestic routes, which may impact overall efficiency [3] Engine Issues - The PW1100 engine is facing significant operational disruptions due to contamination risks, leading to large-scale recalls and repairs, while the LEAP engine is experiencing durability issues that require upgrades [4] - The impact of these engine issues is expected to be more pronounced for the PW1100, with a notable increase in grounded aircraft compared to previous years [4]

Core Viewpoint - The trade conflict between the US and China has intensified, with the US suspending export licenses for aviation products and technology to COMAC, aiming to pressure China to relax its export controls on rare earth elements [1] Group 1: Rare Earth Elements and Supply Chain Dynamics - The US's reliance on China for rare earth elements has become evident, especially after China imposed export controls on seven categories of medium and heavy rare earths, directly impacting the US military and aerospace industries [1][2] - China currently holds 90% of the global rare earth refining capacity and 85% of the permanent magnet manufacturing share, creating a complete industrial chain from mining to high-end applications [2][3] - The US's Mountain Pass mine has resumed operations but produces only 20,000 tons annually, with two-thirds of the ore still needing to be refined in China, highlighting the structural advantages China holds in this sector [1][2] Group 2: Aviation Industry and Technological Competition - The US's primary target is China's C919 aircraft, which competes with Boeing 737 and Airbus A320, having delivered 16 units and received over 1,000 orders since its commercial debut in 2023 [1][7] - The C919's reliance on the LEAP engine from CFM International exposes China's technological shortcomings, but US restrictions are accelerating China's development of domestic alternatives like the Changjiang 1000 engine [7] - China has established a complete strength verification system for its domestic engines, clearing technical hurdles for certification, paralleling the trajectory of Huawei's Kirin chip advancements [7] Group 3: Global Supply Chain Restructuring - The duopoly of Boeing and Airbus is being challenged, with over 8,000 backlogged orders prompting airlines to seek alternatives, including the C919, which could offer a 10% price advantage [9] - The US underestimated the reverse effects of its technology embargo, as limited rare earth exports from China are insufficient for the development of the sixth-generation fighter jets [9] - China plans to increase C919's annual production capacity to 200 units, countering the impact of US technology bans [9] Group 4: Strategic Implications and Challenges - The "rare earth for technology" negotiation reflects a deeper struggle for global supply chain dominance, with China learning from past mistakes of low-priced exports followed by high-priced imports [10] - Despite advancements, China still faces challenges in material technology and certification standards, needing to overcome generational gaps to gain global market acceptance for its engines [10] - Building confidence in technology beyond the International Civil Aviation Organization's certification system is crucial for China's aviation industry [10]

Market Overview - US stock indices experienced fluctuations, with the Dow Jones up 0.28%, Nasdaq up 0.39%, and S&P 500 up 0.4% at the close [1] - The VIX index decreased by 0.67% to 19.18, while the US dollar index fell by 0.53% to 99.37 [1] - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond dropped by 1.339% to 4.42%, with a spread of 48.1 basis points compared to the 2-year Treasury yield [1] - Spot gold increased by 0.89% to $3317.59 per ounce, while Brent crude oil fell by 1.48% to $63.36 [1] - The US GDP growth rate for Q1 was slightly revised to -0.2%, and initial jobless claims for the week ending May 24 were reported at 240,000 [1] Industry & Stocks - All S&P 500 sectors, except for communications which fell by 0.81%, saw gains, with real estate up 0.92%, energy up 0.75%, and utilities up 0.7% [2] - Chinese concept stocks mostly rose, with KWEB up 1.44%, and JD.com up 4.31% [2] - Li Auto reported a Q1 net profit of 647 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.4% [2] - Xpeng Motors saw a 3.98% increase, with its new model receiving 12,566 orders within an hour of launch [2] - Dell Technologies' Q1 revenue was $23.38 billion, exceeding analyst expectations, with AI server backlog nearly double market estimates [6] Major Tech Stocks - Major tech stocks mostly rose, with Nvidia up 3.25% after exceeding Q1 revenue expectations [3] - Tesla's stock increased by 0.43%, with plans for the first delivery of the autonomous Model Y in June [3] - Apple saw a slight decline of 0.23%, while Amazon rose by 0.48% [3] Focus of the Day - A federal court blocked Trump's tariffs on toy imports, marking the second court to do so in two days [4] - e.l.f. Beauty announced a plan to acquire skincare brand Rhode for up to $1 billion, including $800 million in cash and stock [7] - Reports indicate the US will ban the export of semiconductor design software to China, affecting major companies like Cadence and Synopsys [7] - The US has suspended the sale of certain technologies to China, including jet engine technology for COMAC's C919 aircraft [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported GAAP net income of $643 million and earnings per share (EPS) of $3.48 for Q1 2025, with adjusted net income of $679 million and adjusted EPS of $3.68, leading to an increase in full-year EPS guidance [5][13][18] - The net maintenance contribution was $82 million, significantly higher than the average of $30 million to $40 million due to lower leasing expenses [14] - The net gain on sale of assets was $177 million, with total sales revenue of $683 million, resulting in a 35% unlevered gain on sale margin [14] - The liquidity position was strong, with total sources of liquidity at approximately $20 billion, including over $1 billion in cash [16][17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved a 99% utilization rate and an 84% extension rate during the period, indicating strong operational performance [5] - On the passenger side, there was strong demand for 787 aircraft, with successful transitions and increased rents [6][7] - The company executed a $7.87 million sale leaseback at attractive pricing with a new customer, highlighting the demand for its assets [8] - The company ordered 268 new LEAP engines in 2024, with over 120 already delivered, showcasing a focus on expanding operational capacity [9][10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted that the U.S. market represents only about 22% of the global market, emphasizing the importance of international markets [52][69] - There is a significant tailwind against falling yields in non-U.S. dollar denominated economies, insulating them from slowdowns [52] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company announced a new $500 million share repurchase program, reflecting confidence in its financial position [5][18] - The management emphasized a long-term mindset in fleet management, contrasting short-term airline capacity adjustments with long-term fleet decisions [53] - The company is focused on profitability and risk-adjusted returns, indicating a disciplined approach to capital deployment [32][33] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in robust demand for the foreseeable future, despite macroeconomic uncertainties [11][19] - The company is seeing opportunities in the helicopter business and is adapting to changes in the leasing model [10][11] - Management acknowledged potential impacts from tariffs but noted that current contracts have fixed caps on escalation [42][43] Other Important Information - The company was upgraded to BBB+ by Fitch, indicating a strong credit rating across all three rating agencies [17] - The company has taken advantage of market volatility to repurchase over $1 billion worth of stock so far this year [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expectations for bilateral transactions in light of tariff uncertainty - Management expects to see more bilateral negotiations due to the company's scale and global reach [22][23] Question: Impact of freight conversion delays on EPS guidance - The increase in EPS guidance was primarily driven by gains on sale and higher net maintenance contributions, despite some delays in the freighter conversion program [24][26][28] Question: Deployment of excess capital in engines and helicopters - Management indicated ample capital availability for attractive opportunities, with potential deployment in the range of billions [32][33] Question: Indicators of demand trends going forward - Management noted that while U.S. airlines are adjusting capacity, long-term fleet decisions remain strong, and no reduction in demand is currently observed [51][55] Question: Composition of aircraft buyers - Recent sales were approximately a quarter to airlines, a third to other lessors, and a third to investors, with minimal part-out sales [72] Question: Future of tariffs and their impact on lessors - Management discussed the importance of ensuring that tariffs do not restrict the used aircraft market, which could negatively impact consumers [75][78] Question: Demand for wide-body aircraft - Management reported strong and unabated demand for wide-body aircraft, with a focus on 787 and A350 models [104][105] Question: Lobbying efforts regarding tariffs - Management confirmed that there is active lobbying in the aerospace industry to protect and grow U.S. manufacturing [109][111]

Core Viewpoint - Safran Group reported a strong performance in Q1 2025 with a 16.7% increase in adjusted revenue, reaching €7.257 billion, driven by growth in the civil aviation aftermarket [2][3] Group Performance - The consolidated revenue for Q1 2025 was €7.38 billion, reflecting a 16.7% increase compared to Q1 2024, with organic growth at 13.9% [2][3] - Positive impacts from business scope changes contributed €32 million, while currency fluctuations added €142 million, with an average EUR/USD exchange rate of 1.05 for Q1 2025 [3] Business Segment Performance - The propulsion segment saw a 16.4% organic revenue growth, primarily driven by a 25.1% increase in civil engine spare parts revenue [4] - Civil engine services revenue grew by 17.6%, supported by RPFH contracts for LEAP engines, with 319 LEAP engines delivered in Q1 2025 compared to 367 in Q1 2024 [4] - The equipment and defense segment experienced a 10.8% revenue increase, particularly in nacelles, landing gear systems, and avionics [4] Aircraft Interiors - The aircraft interiors segment achieved a robust 13.8% growth, surpassing Q1 2019 levels by 8%, with aftermarket services growing by 17.4% [5] - Original equipment sales increased by 11.5%, driven by a significant rise in business class seat deliveries [5] Full-Year Outlook - Safran Group maintains its full-year outlook for 2025, expecting approximately 10% revenue growth and recurring operating profit between €4.8 billion and €4.9 billion [6] - Free cash flow is projected to be between €3 billion and €3.2 billion, accounting for an estimated negative impact of €380 million to €400 million from the French large enterprise tax [6] Assumptions and Risks - The outlook is based on assumptions including a 15% to 20% increase in LEAP engine deliveries compared to 2024 [7] - Spare parts revenue is expected to grow in the low double digits, while service revenue is anticipated to grow in the mid double digits [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the defense and aerospace industry [2]. Core Insights - The domestic aviation industry is witnessing a significant ramp-up in production capacity, particularly for the C919 aircraft, with expected deliveries to reach 50 units in 2025, significantly surpassing 2024's figures [2][25]. - The C919's international market expansion is progressing, with the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) certification process underway, which is crucial for entering the European market [6][51]. - The report highlights the robust domestic demand for aircraft, predicting that China will become the largest aviation market globally by 2043, with an estimated 10,061 aircraft needed, valued at approximately $1.4 trillion [52][53]. Summary by Sections Domestic Aviation Industry Analysis - The C919 aircraft is set to enter a new phase of commercial operation, with significant orders from major airlines, totaling over 300 units in 2024 [21]. - The C919 has already commenced operations on 15 domestic routes, with nearly 8,000 flights conducted [22]. - A series of regional mobilization meetings have been held to enhance collaboration within the aviation supply chain, facilitating the C919's production scale-up [26][28]. International Aviation Market Analysis - Boeing and Airbus reported their 2024 performance, with Airbus consistently outperforming Boeing in both orders and deliveries over the past three years [7][8]. - The report notes that Boeing's commercial aircraft deliveries are expected to recover in 2025, while Airbus anticipates a 7% increase in deliveries [9]. Capital Market Situation - The report outlines the ongoing construction projects in Shanghai related to the C919, which are crucial for supporting its production capacity [31][32]. - The establishment of a comprehensive supply chain around the C919 in Shanghai is highlighted, with significant investments and projects aimed at enhancing production capabilities [30][29].