Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After continuous decline, the copper price temporarily stabilized at the important level of 85,000 yuan/ton and entered an oscillation phase [1][9] - The Fed's ambiguous stance on the December interest - rate cut led to the recent strengthening of the US dollar index, which suppressed the copper price. The market's expected probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December has risen from 60% to 73.9%, indicating a possible improvement in market risk appetite [2][9] - Whether the subsequent copper price will continue to decline depends on when the US federal government ends the shutdown and when the Fed changes its tone on the December interest - rate cut [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance of Copper Futures - On November 5, 2025 (Wednesday), the Shanghai copper futures stopped falling and oscillated. The main 2512 contract closed at 85,670 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton or 0.08% from the previous trading day's closing price [1] - The LME copper price continued to decline on Tuesday. After the copper price touched the important 85,000 yuan/ton mark, it temporarily stopped falling and started to oscillate [1] - The trading volume of Shanghai copper futures contracts on November 5, 2025 was 280,003 lots (unilateral calculation), the turnover was 11.9605821 billion yuan (unilateral calculation), and the open interest was 557,645 lots (a decrease of 4,052 lots) [8] 3.2 Macro and Fundamental Analysis - The Fed's ambiguous strategy on the December interest - rate cut led to the recent strengthening of the US dollar, which was the main reason for the suppression of the copper price. However, the market's expected probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December has increased from 67% to 73.9%, and Goldman Sachs believes that a December interest - rate cut by the Fed is the baseline prediction [2] - The US federal government shutdown has entered its 36th day, creating the longest shutdown record in US history, which has triggered concerns about the liquidity of the US financial market, leading to a general decline in US stocks and commodities on Tuesday [2] 3.3 Market Conditions of the Spot Market - The atmosphere in the spot market on November 5, 2025 was acceptable. After the copper price fell, the market's purchasing sentiment improved, and the downstream enterprises' enthusiasm for bargain - hunting increased. The reduction in the circulation of the spot market seemed to support the spot premium [1] - The refined - scrap price difference of bright copper in some regions of China continued to decline. In Guangdong, it was 2,562 yuan/ton, and in Tianjin, it was 2,640 yuan/ton [1] 3.4 Market Outlook - The Fed's ambiguous strategy on the December interest - rate cut has led to the recent strengthening of the US dollar index, suppressing the copper price. After continuous decline, the copper price has temporarily stabilized at the 85,000 yuan/ton mark and entered an oscillation phase [9] - Whether the subsequent copper price will continue to decline requires close attention to when the US federal government ends the shutdown and when the Fed changes its tone on the December interest - rate cut [9] - The market's expected probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December rising from 60% to 73.9% means that there is a possibility of improvement in market risk appetite [9]