成文日期：20251219 报告周期:日报 研究员：王建超（从业资格号：F3077383;投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015736) 电解铜期货日报: 美国 CPI 数据低于预期， 司价 2 3 1 7 3 5 1 7 3 1. 期货及现货市场 周四 LME 铜价冲高回落,今日（20251219 周五）沪铜高位震 荡，主力 2602 合约,收盘价在 92600 元/吨,较上一交易日收盘价 下跌 220 元/吨,跌幅 0.24%。美国 CPI 数据低于预期,铜价受到激 励,价格从日内低点走高,加上日本央行周五白天加息 25 个基点利 空释放后，也推动铜价午后继续走高。 图 1：上期所沪铜期货主力合约分时图 Illinomalia lib III III II di the have been believed a mistation in the industrial Il think of not the 图片来源：国金期货行情软件 图 2： 纽商所铜期货主力合约分时图 今日国内现货铜对 2601 月期货合约报贴水 220-贴水 90 元/吨。 今日现货市场成交平淡,而下游维持刚需消费,成交量相对有限, 市场流动 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Copper is likely to continue its strong performance in the future due to the siphoning effect of US stockpiling, a planned 10% joint production cut by domestic copper smelters in 2026 to address tight copper ore supply, stable demand, and the possibility of a Fed rate cut in December [11] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Markets - On Tuesday, the LME copper price adjusted at a high level. On Wednesday, December 3, 2025, the Shanghai copper price slightly adjusted. The closing price of the main 2601 contract was 89,210 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan/ton or 0.33% from the previous trading day. Micro-positive news needs to be realized, and the copper price is adjusting at a high level [1] - Today, the domestic spot copper was at a premium of 90 - 220 yuan/ton to the December futures contract. The procurement sentiment in the spot market was average, with downstream buyers purchasing on demand. The limited supply of holders, combined with the backwardation structure of the futures spread, supported the firm increase in the spot premium [1] - Today, the refined - scrap price difference of bright copper in major Chinese markets rebounded, with 3,465 yuan/ton in Guangdong and 3,354 yuan/ton in Tianjin [1] 2. Macro and Fundamentals - After the domestic market closed, LME copper inventory increased slightly by 750 tons to 162,150 tons, while the canceled warrants increased significantly by 50,575 tons to 56,875 tons, further confirming the siphoning effect of US copper demand [2] - The inventory data reveals the distortion of the global copper trade flow, which is the most direct pressure driving up copper prices in non - US regions. There is a "high in the US, low elsewhere" pattern, with US COMEX copper inventory as high as 418,700 short tons (about 380,000 metric tons), accounting for most of the world's exchange - visible inventory. In contrast, LME inventory is only 162,150 tons, and SHFE inventory has dropped to 97,900 tons, with China's social inventory at a relatively low level of 173,500 tons [2] - The core reason for this extreme differentiation is the market's expectation of US import tariffs on copper. Traders have transferred a large amount of inventory to the US in advance to avoid risks. As a result, a region accounting for only about 7% of global copper consumption has hoarded more than half of the world's visible inventory, leading to a sharp compression of deliverable inventory in non - US consumption regions, especially Asia, which has directly translated into "soft squeeze" pressure on the futures market and high spot premiums, driving up the prices of Shanghai and London copper [3] 3. Copper Futures Contract Quotes - The report provides detailed quotes of SHFE copper futures contracts from December 2025 to November 2026, including previous settlement prices, opening prices, high prices, low prices, closing prices, reference settlement prices, price changes, trading volumes, trading amounts, and positions/position changes [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After continuous decline, the copper price temporarily stabilized at the important level of 85,000 yuan/ton and entered an oscillation phase [1][9] - The Fed's ambiguous stance on the December interest - rate cut led to the recent strengthening of the US dollar index, which suppressed the copper price. The market's expected probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December has risen from 60% to 73.9%, indicating a possible improvement in market risk appetite [2][9] - Whether the subsequent copper price will continue to decline depends on when the US federal government ends the shutdown and when the Fed changes its tone on the December interest - rate cut [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance of Copper Futures - On November 5, 2025 (Wednesday), the Shanghai copper futures stopped falling and oscillated. The main 2512 contract closed at 85,670 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton or 0.08% from the previous trading day's closing price [1] - The LME copper price continued to decline on Tuesday. After the copper price touched the important 85,000 yuan/ton mark, it temporarily stopped falling and started to oscillate [1] - The trading volume of Shanghai copper futures contracts on November 5, 2025 was 280,003 lots (unilateral calculation), the turnover was 11.9605821 billion yuan (unilateral calculation), and the open interest was 557,645 lots (a decrease of 4,052 lots) [8] 3.2 Macro and Fundamental Analysis - The Fed's ambiguous strategy on the December interest - rate cut led to the recent strengthening of the US dollar, which was the main reason for the suppression of the copper price. However, the market's expected probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December has increased from 67% to 73.9%, and Goldman Sachs believes that a December interest - rate cut by the Fed is the baseline prediction [2] - The US federal government shutdown has entered its 36th day, creating the longest shutdown record in US history, which has triggered concerns about the liquidity of the US financial market, leading to a general decline in US stocks and commodities on Tuesday [2] 3.3 Market Conditions of the Spot Market - The atmosphere in the spot market on November 5, 2025 was acceptable. After the copper price fell, the market's purchasing sentiment improved, and the downstream enterprises' enthusiasm for bargain - hunting increased. The reduction in the circulation of the spot market seemed to support the spot premium [1] - The refined - scrap price difference of bright copper in some regions of China continued to decline. In Guangdong, it was 2,562 yuan/ton, and in Tianjin, it was 2,640 yuan/ton [1] 3.4 Market Outlook - The Fed's ambiguous strategy on the December interest - rate cut has led to the recent strengthening of the US dollar index, suppressing the copper price. After continuous decline, the copper price has temporarily stabilized at the 85,000 yuan/ton mark and entered an oscillation phase [9] - Whether the subsequent copper price will continue to decline requires close attention to when the US federal government ends the shutdown and when the Fed changes its tone on the December interest - rate cut [9] - The market's expected probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December rising from 60% to 73.9% means that there is a possibility of improvement in market risk appetite [9]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The copper price is under pressure due to high inventory levels across major exchanges, combined with factors such as uncertain US interest rates, subdued downstream procurement, and overall macro - economic pressures in China, resulting in a lackluster performance of copper prices recently [1][2][9]. 3. Section - by - Section Summary 3.1 Futures and Spot Market - On Monday, LME copper prices showed a strong - side oscillation. On Tuesday (20250923), Shanghai copper (SHFE) had a weak performance. The main 2511 contract closed at 79,920 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton or 0.30% from the previous trading day [1]. - The spot market atmosphere was ordinary, with no signs of tightness in the circulation end. Downstream pre - holiday stocking was nearly finished, and consumer enthusiasm was poor. The refined - scrap copper price spread in major Chinese markets continued to rise, with 1,590 yuan/ton in Guangdong and 1,546 yuan/ton in Tianjin [1]. 3.2 Macro and Fundamental Aspects - Overseas financial markets are focusing on the possibility of two Fed rate cuts by the end of 2025, creating a moderately loose financial environment. Fed officials are communicating with the market about 'aggressive rate cuts' and 'cautious rate cuts' to guide market expectations [2]. - The 8 - day National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday usually prompts downstream enterprises to replenish stocks in advance. However, price increases and uncertain US interest rates have curbed procurement in the Chinese market, and the procurement is almost over [2]. - The increasing COMEX electrolytic copper inventory is suppressing the upward momentum of US copper prices, and the overall macro - economic pressure in China is also weighing on SHFE copper prices [2]. 3.3 Market Outlook The increasing copper inventories in COMEX and SHFE delivery warehouses, despite a slight decline in LME electrolytic copper inventory, have led to insufficient upward momentum for copper prices. Recently, the copper price trend has become more cautious due to fundamental factors [9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The market is still digesting the Fed's and Powell's hawkish remarks, causing copper prices to oscillate at a low level. Short - term focus on "risk - management style rate cuts" has led to a decline in copper prices, but downstream procurement provides some support, and copper prices are currently in a range - bound oscillation [1][2][11]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Futures and Spot Markets - On Thursday, LME copper prices tumbled. On Friday (20250919), SHFE copper prices showed a relatively strong oscillation at a low level. The main 2510 contract closed at 79,850 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton or 0.34% from the previous trading day's close. The spot market was relatively stable, with downstream enterprises actively replenishing stocks before the weekend, and the spot premium stopped falling and stabilized. The refined - scrap spread in major Chinese markets continued to decline, with 1,526 yuan/ton in Guangdong and 1,473 yuan/ton in Tianjin [1]. 3.2 Macroeconomics and Fundamentals - The market is digesting Powell's "risk - management style rate cuts", which are preventive and emphasize a "one - time" feature. Short - term focus on this type of rate cut has overshadowed the two expected rate cuts by the end of the year shown in the dot - plot. This led to an extreme decline in SHFE copper futures prices on Thursday's Asian session, and prices remained weak on Friday. The market needs more time to absorb Powell's hawkish remarks. Fundamentally, the support for copper prices is limited. China's economy is under pressure, copper consumption lacks highlights, and the increasing COMEX copper inventory dampens the enthusiasm of funds to go long on COMEX copper prices. Although SHFE copper has the best fundamentals among the three, it is also affected by China's macro - economic environment [2][10]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The market's short - term focus on "risk - management style rate cuts" has caused a correction in risk assets including copper. Copper prices are currently in a range - bound oscillation, and the active procurement of downstream enterprises after price drops provides some support for prices [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The merger of two major copper mining companies boosts copper prices, and the demand for copper is expected to grow rapidly due to the dual - drive of global green energy transformation and data center construction, while the supply of copper mines is limited [1][2] - The Grasberg copper mine accident in Indonesia and the potential supply interruption may further exacerbate the copper concentrate supply gap and support copper prices [3] - The Fed's approaching interest rate cut in September and the long - term strong trend of copper have made the market focus on when copper will break the sideways trend [11] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Markets - On Tuesday, LME copper prices were strong. On Wednesday, September 10, 2025, SHFE copper rose slightly. The main 2510 contract closed at 79,790 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton or 0.18% from the previous day's closing price [1] - The spot market atmosphere is average, with relaxed spot circulation, active shipments by traders, and downstream price - pressing purchases. The spot premium continues to decline, and the refined - scrap price difference of bright copper in major Chinese markets has fallen [1] 2. Macro and Fundamentals - Anglo American and Canada's Teck Resources announced a merger on the 9th. If approved by regulatory authorities, it will be the largest global mining merger in more than a decade, with a combined market value of over $53 billion [2] - Driven by global green energy transformation and data center construction, the demand for copper is expected to grow rapidly, but the supply of copper mines is limited. Chinese mining companies are extending into the copper field, and Barrick Gold is investing in two copper projects and changing its name [2] - The Grasberg copper mine accident in Indonesia has 7 miners trapped underground. The mine has suspended operations for rescue. The 2023 copper production of the Grasberg mining area accounted for 2.5% of the global copper output. If the mine is shut down for more than a week or a month, it will exacerbate the copper concentrate supply gap [3] 3. Market Outlook - The temporary supply interruption of the large - scale Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia will have a certain impact on copper prices. The Fed's approaching interest rate cut in September and the long - term strong trend of copper have made the market focus on when copper will break the sideways trend [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - Optimistic macro expectations, low inventories, and consumer recovery have led to an upward trend in copper prices. With the approaching likely Fed rate cut on September 18 and the expected 'Golden September and Silver October' consumption peak season in China, copper prices are expected to continue rising in the near - term [1][2][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures and Spot Markets - On Tuesday, LME copper prices rose significantly. On September 3, 2025, Shanghai copper first rose and then fell. The main 2510 contract closed at 80,700 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton or 0.56% from the previous trading day. - The average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Shanghai Metals Market was 80,500 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. It was at a premium of 90 - 300 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2509 contract. The supply of imported and domestic copper in the spot market has increased, but the high price has suppressed downstream purchasing sentiment [1]. 3.2 Macro and Fundamentals - The start time of LME's Asian trading on Wednesday was postponed by 90 minutes, and the reason is unknown. - The lack of confidence in the copper market was due to weak downstream consumption. However, with the approaching Fed rate cut on September 18 and the expected consumption peak season in China, copper prices started to rise. - China's manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4, up 0.1 from the previous month, indicating a continued recovery of the economy and providing some support for copper demand. - The recent rise in gold prices has also boosted copper prices [2]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Although the Shanghai copper main contract once broke through the 80,000 yuan/ton mark, the overall trend was a bit sluggish. After the price soared, long - position holders were more willing to reduce their positions, resulting in a long upper shadow on the K - line. - Given the low spot inventory and the expected consumption peak season, with the approaching Fed rate cut on September 18, copper prices may have formed an upward trend in the near - term [9].