电解铜期货

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电解铜期货日报:库存偏高,铜价受拖累-20250925
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 12:47
电解铜期货日报: 库存偏高,铜价受拖累 1. 期货及现货市场 周一 LME 铜价偏强震荡。当日(20250923 周二)沪铜走势偏弱, 主力 2511 合约收盘在 79920 元/吨,较上一交易日收盘价下跌 240 元/吨,跌幅 0.30%。三大交易所的电解铜库存偏高,铜价受拖累。 今日现货市场氛围一般,流通端无紧张迹象,下游节前备货接近 尾声,消费积极性欠佳。当日中国主要市场精废价差继续回升,广 东地区精废价差为 1590 元/吨. 天津地区精废价差为 1546 元/吨。 2. 宏观和县本面。 海外金融市场开始关注美联储到 2025 年底将有两次降息机会, 金融氛围适当宽松。多位美联储官员在'积极降息'与'谨慎降息' 的态度间与市场沟通,积极引导市场预期。 今年国庆和中秋假日共计 8 天,长假前下游往往提前补库,价 格上涨叠加美国利率前景不明,共同抑制了中国市场的采购意愿。 目前看,采购接近尾声。当前 COMEX 的电解铜库存仍在增加, 这 抑制了美国铜价走高的积极性,拖累了铜价。沪铜由于受累于国内 整体宏观经济的压力,铜价也没出彩表现。 图 1:沪铜主力期货合约分时图 研究咨询: 028 6130 316 ...
电解铜期货日报:市场继续消化美联储降息和鲍威尔鹰派讲话,铜价低位震荡-20250923
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 09:46
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The market is still digesting the Fed's and Powell's hawkish remarks, causing copper prices to oscillate at a low level. Short - term focus on "risk - management style rate cuts" has led to a decline in copper prices, but downstream procurement provides some support, and copper prices are currently in a range - bound oscillation [1][2][11]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Futures and Spot Markets - On Thursday, LME copper prices tumbled. On Friday (20250919), SHFE copper prices showed a relatively strong oscillation at a low level. The main 2510 contract closed at 79,850 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton or 0.34% from the previous trading day's close. The spot market was relatively stable, with downstream enterprises actively replenishing stocks before the weekend, and the spot premium stopped falling and stabilized. The refined - scrap spread in major Chinese markets continued to decline, with 1,526 yuan/ton in Guangdong and 1,473 yuan/ton in Tianjin [1]. 3.2 Macroeconomics and Fundamentals - The market is digesting Powell's "risk - management style rate cuts", which are preventive and emphasize a "one - time" feature. Short - term focus on this type of rate cut has overshadowed the two expected rate cuts by the end of the year shown in the dot - plot. This led to an extreme decline in SHFE copper futures prices on Thursday's Asian session, and prices remained weak on Friday. The market needs more time to absorb Powell's hawkish remarks. Fundamentally, the support for copper prices is limited. China's economy is under pressure, copper consumption lacks highlights, and the increasing COMEX copper inventory dampens the enthusiasm of funds to go long on COMEX copper prices. Although SHFE copper has the best fundamentals among the three, it is also affected by China's macro - economic environment [2][10]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The market's short - term focus on "risk - management style rate cuts" has caused a correction in risk assets including copper. Copper prices are currently in a range - bound oscillation, and the active procurement of downstream enterprises after price drops provides some support for prices [11].
电解铜期货日报:铜价小幅上涨受英美资源和泰克资源合并推动-20250912
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 08:59
成文日期: 2025091 员:王建超(从业资格号:F3077383;投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015736) 电解铜期货日报: 铜价小幅上涨, 1. 期货及现货市场 周二 LME 铜价走势偏强。当日(20250910 周三)沪铜小幅上扬, 主力 2510 合约收盘在 79790 元/吨,较上一日收盘价上涨 140元/吨, 涨幅 0.18%。两大铜矿公司合并,提振铜价。 今日现货市场氛围一般,现货流通放宽,贸易商出货积极,下游 压价采购. 现货升水继续回落。今日中国主要市场光亮铜精废价差 回落,广东地区报价 1463元/吨,天津地区报价 1389元/吨。 2. 宏观和基本面/ 英美资源集团和加拿大泰克资源 9 日宣布合并。若获得监管机 构批准,这将是十余年以来全球矿业最大规模合并案。合并后的公 司拟命名盎格鲁泰克。这两家公司的市值合计超过 530亿美元。全 球绿色能源转型(如风电、光伏装机)及数据中心建设需求的双重 驱动下,业内预期铜需求将迅速增长。就铜来说,需求增长是非常 确定的,但铜矿供应是有限的。中国矿企向铜领域延伸。巴里克黄 金公司正在投资两个铜矿项目,分别是巴基斯坦的雷克迪克铜金矿 和赞比亚的 Lum ...
电解铜期货日报:乐观宏观氛围带动,铜价上涨-20250905
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 13:00
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - Optimistic macro expectations, low inventories, and consumer recovery have led to an upward trend in copper prices. With the approaching likely Fed rate cut on September 18 and the expected 'Golden September and Silver October' consumption peak season in China, copper prices are expected to continue rising in the near - term [1][2][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures and Spot Markets - On Tuesday, LME copper prices rose significantly. On September 3, 2025, Shanghai copper first rose and then fell. The main 2510 contract closed at 80,700 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton or 0.56% from the previous trading day. - The average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Shanghai Metals Market was 80,500 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. It was at a premium of 90 - 300 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2509 contract. The supply of imported and domestic copper in the spot market has increased, but the high price has suppressed downstream purchasing sentiment [1]. 3.2 Macro and Fundamentals - The start time of LME's Asian trading on Wednesday was postponed by 90 minutes, and the reason is unknown. - The lack of confidence in the copper market was due to weak downstream consumption. However, with the approaching Fed rate cut on September 18 and the expected consumption peak season in China, copper prices started to rise. - China's manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4, up 0.1 from the previous month, indicating a continued recovery of the economy and providing some support for copper demand. - The recent rise in gold prices has also boosted copper prices [2]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Although the Shanghai copper main contract once broke through the 80,000 yuan/ton mark, the overall trend was a bit sluggish. After the price soared, long - position holders were more willing to reduce their positions, resulting in a long upper shadow on the K - line. - Given the low spot inventory and the expected consumption peak season, with the approaching Fed rate cut on September 18, copper prices may have formed an upward trend in the near - term [9].