成文日期: 20251105 报告周期:日报 误：王建超（从业资格号：F3077383; 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015736） 解铜期货日报: 触及 85000 重要支撑位。 i澄升始震 周二 LME 铜价继续回落、今日（20251105 周三）沪铜止跌震 荡、主力 2512 合约收盘在 85670 元/吨,较上一交易目收盘价下跌 70 元/吨,跌幅 0.08%;美元指数开始震荡不再走高,铜价触及 85000 元/吨重要关口后，暂时止跌，开始震荡。 今日现货市场氛围尚可,铜价下跌后市场采购情绪转好，下游企 业逢低采购积极性有所提升,现货市场流通似有减少支撑现货升水。 中国部分地区市场光亮铜精废价差继续回落，广东地区为 2562 元/ 吨. 天津地区 2640元/吨。 2. 宏观和基本面 美联储官员在 12 月降息这个议题上保持模糊策略导致美元近期 走强,而美元走强是近期压制铜价的主要原因。但市场预期美联储 12 月降息 25 个基点的概率一度下降至 67%,今天该概率提高至 73.9%。高盛认为美联储 12 月降息是基准预测。这也意味着未来美 联储官员改口风也是大概率事件。 美国联邦政府停摆要进入第 36天 ...

电解铜期货日报: 库存偏高，铜价受拖累 1. 期货及现货市场 周一 LME 铜价偏强震荡。当日（20250923 周二）沪铜走势偏弱, 主力 2511 合约收盘在 79920 元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价下跌 240 元/吨,跌幅 0.30%。三大交易所的电解铜库存偏高,铜价受拖累。 今日现货市场氛围一般，流通端无紧张迹象，下游节前备货接近 尾声,消费积极性欠佳。当日中国主要市场精废价差继续回升,广 东地区精废价差为 1590 元/吨. 天津地区精废价差为 1546 元/吨。 2. 宏观和县本面。 海外金融市场开始关注美联储到 2025 年底将有两次降息机会, 金融氛围适当宽松。多位美联储官员在'积极降息'与'谨慎降息' 的态度间与市场沟通，积极引导市场预期。 今年国庆和中秋假日共计 8 天,长假前下游往往提前补库,价 格上涨叠加美国利率前景不明,共同抑制了中国市场的采购意愿。 目前看,采购接近尾声。当前 COMEX 的电解铜库存仍在增加, 这 抑制了美国铜价走高的积极性,拖累了铜价。沪铜由于受累于国内 整体宏观经济的压力,铜价也没出彩表现。 图 1：沪铜主力期货合约分时图 研究咨询: 028 6130 316 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The market is still digesting the Fed's and Powell's hawkish remarks, causing copper prices to oscillate at a low level. Short - term focus on "risk - management style rate cuts" has led to a decline in copper prices, but downstream procurement provides some support, and copper prices are currently in a range - bound oscillation [1][2][11]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Futures and Spot Markets - On Thursday, LME copper prices tumbled. On Friday (20250919), SHFE copper prices showed a relatively strong oscillation at a low level. The main 2510 contract closed at 79,850 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton or 0.34% from the previous trading day's close. The spot market was relatively stable, with downstream enterprises actively replenishing stocks before the weekend, and the spot premium stopped falling and stabilized. The refined - scrap spread in major Chinese markets continued to decline, with 1,526 yuan/ton in Guangdong and 1,473 yuan/ton in Tianjin [1]. 3.2 Macroeconomics and Fundamentals - The market is digesting Powell's "risk - management style rate cuts", which are preventive and emphasize a "one - time" feature. Short - term focus on this type of rate cut has overshadowed the two expected rate cuts by the end of the year shown in the dot - plot. This led to an extreme decline in SHFE copper futures prices on Thursday's Asian session, and prices remained weak on Friday. The market needs more time to absorb Powell's hawkish remarks. Fundamentally, the support for copper prices is limited. China's economy is under pressure, copper consumption lacks highlights, and the increasing COMEX copper inventory dampens the enthusiasm of funds to go long on COMEX copper prices. Although SHFE copper has the best fundamentals among the three, it is also affected by China's macro - economic environment [2][10]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The market's short - term focus on "risk - management style rate cuts" has caused a correction in risk assets including copper. Copper prices are currently in a range - bound oscillation, and the active procurement of downstream enterprises after price drops provides some support for prices [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The merger of two major copper mining companies boosts copper prices, and the demand for copper is expected to grow rapidly due to the dual - drive of global green energy transformation and data center construction, while the supply of copper mines is limited [1][2] - The Grasberg copper mine accident in Indonesia and the potential supply interruption may further exacerbate the copper concentrate supply gap and support copper prices [3] - The Fed's approaching interest rate cut in September and the long - term strong trend of copper have made the market focus on when copper will break the sideways trend [11] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Markets - On Tuesday, LME copper prices were strong. On Wednesday, September 10, 2025, SHFE copper rose slightly. The main 2510 contract closed at 79,790 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton or 0.18% from the previous day's closing price [1] - The spot market atmosphere is average, with relaxed spot circulation, active shipments by traders, and downstream price - pressing purchases. The spot premium continues to decline, and the refined - scrap price difference of bright copper in major Chinese markets has fallen [1] 2. Macro and Fundamentals - Anglo American and Canada's Teck Resources announced a merger on the 9th. If approved by regulatory authorities, it will be the largest global mining merger in more than a decade, with a combined market value of over $53 billion [2] - Driven by global green energy transformation and data center construction, the demand for copper is expected to grow rapidly, but the supply of copper mines is limited. Chinese mining companies are extending into the copper field, and Barrick Gold is investing in two copper projects and changing its name [2] - The Grasberg copper mine accident in Indonesia has 7 miners trapped underground. The mine has suspended operations for rescue. The 2023 copper production of the Grasberg mining area accounted for 2.5% of the global copper output. If the mine is shut down for more than a week or a month, it will exacerbate the copper concentrate supply gap [3] 3. Market Outlook - The temporary supply interruption of the large - scale Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia will have a certain impact on copper prices. The Fed's approaching interest rate cut in September and the long - term strong trend of copper have made the market focus on when copper will break the sideways trend [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - Optimistic macro expectations, low inventories, and consumer recovery have led to an upward trend in copper prices. With the approaching likely Fed rate cut on September 18 and the expected 'Golden September and Silver October' consumption peak season in China, copper prices are expected to continue rising in the near - term [1][2][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures and Spot Markets - On Tuesday, LME copper prices rose significantly. On September 3, 2025, Shanghai copper first rose and then fell. The main 2510 contract closed at 80,700 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton or 0.56% from the previous trading day. - The average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Shanghai Metals Market was 80,500 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. It was at a premium of 90 - 300 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2509 contract. The supply of imported and domestic copper in the spot market has increased, but the high price has suppressed downstream purchasing sentiment [1]. 3.2 Macro and Fundamentals - The start time of LME's Asian trading on Wednesday was postponed by 90 minutes, and the reason is unknown. - The lack of confidence in the copper market was due to weak downstream consumption. However, with the approaching Fed rate cut on September 18 and the expected consumption peak season in China, copper prices started to rise. - China's manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4, up 0.1 from the previous month, indicating a continued recovery of the economy and providing some support for copper demand. - The recent rise in gold prices has also boosted copper prices [2]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Although the Shanghai copper main contract once broke through the 80,000 yuan/ton mark, the overall trend was a bit sluggish. After the price soared, long - position holders were more willing to reduce their positions, resulting in a long upper shadow on the K - line. - Given the low spot inventory and the expected consumption peak season, with the approaching Fed rate cut on September 18, copper prices may have formed an upward trend in the near - term [9].