证券研究报告 网易云音乐 (9899 HK) 港股通 积极布局会员扩容与价值提升 SAC No. S0570523100002 SFC No. BTP154 华泰研究 年报点评 投资评级(维持): 买入 目标价(港币): 239.40 夏路路 研究员 xialulu@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 詹博 研究员 zhanbo@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 朱珺 研究员 SAC No. S0570520040004 SFC No. BPX711 zhujun016731@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 郑裕佳 研究员 SAC No. S0570524070002 SFC No. BTB676 zhengyujia@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 基本数据 | 收盘价 (港币 截至 2 月 11 日) | 183.00 | | --- | --- | | 市值 (港币百万) | 39,872 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (港币百万) | 191.98 | | 52 周价格范围 (港币) | 123.60-303.40 ...

Group 1 - The company expects adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 to be 27.58/22.22/24.58 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of +62.3%/-19.5%/+10.6% [1] - The company maintains a target price of 312 HKD for 2026, with a PE ratio of 28X, and continues to hold an "overweight" rating [1] - The company reported a revenue of 3.83 billion CNY for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 6.0% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 36.4%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points [1] Group 2 - Online music revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 2.97 billion CNY, an increase of 15.9% year-on-year, with subscription revenue growing by 15.2% to 2.47 billion CNY [2] - The company has over 819,000 registered independent musicians and approximately 4.8 million music tracks uploaded as of June 2025 [2] - The company has implemented a more cautious promotional strategy, resulting in a 55.8% reduction in sales and marketing expenses for the first half of 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The music industry is expected to achieve dual growth in traffic and paid subscriptions through copyright expansion, as highlighted by Dongfang Securities' recent report [1] Group 1: Company Insights - Tencent Music's stock rose over 3% to $21.31, indicating positive market sentiment [1] - Tencent Music is expected to enhance its user base by acquiring Korean company SM and planning to acquire Ximalaya, which will likely attract K-pop and long audio users [1] - NetEase Cloud Music is maintaining stable traffic through independent artist incubation and K-pop copyright [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The report suggests that both Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music can stabilize and improve traffic and payment rates through copyright supplementation and user operations [1] - The increase in the proportion of paid walls and the expansion of SVIP benefits are driving growth in ARPPU (Average Revenue Per Paying User) [1]