转自：新华财经 展望未来，从短期看，李刘阳认为，"去美元化"交易或在未来的一周有所逆转。但从长期看，特朗普政府的政策风险或仍然不时发酵，将进一步动摇美元储 备资产的地位，并进一步强化自去年以来的弱美元环境。"从短期来看，我们认为相关事件对美元汇率的冲击或偏向于'一次性'，此后有望逐步回归美国基 本面等周期性因素所隐含的水平。" 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，短期来看，考虑到春节前企业结汇需求有可能持续释放，市场情绪偏高，再加上短期内美元指数大幅反弹的可能性不 大，预计"破7"后人民币还会处在一个偏强运行状态。值得注意的是，尽管今日人民币中间价"破7"，但2025年12月以来人民币对美元中间价已持续在向偏弱 方向调控，旨在引导市场预期，防范短期内人民币过快升值，或持续出现单边走势。 上周（1月19日至23日），美国市场遭遇股债汇"三杀"，全球市场"去美元化交易"再起，美元指数整体承压走低，全周呈高波动下行格局，收于97.46，全周 累计跌幅超1.8%；非美货币全线收高，欧元、英镑、澳元兑美元均明显走强，新西兰元，挪威克朗以及澳元领涨，兑美元汇率分别收涨3.4%、3.3%和 3.16%；在避险情绪的助推下，瑞郎 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the divergence between the traditional neoclassical exchange rate models and the realities of modern financial systems, emphasizing the need to consider financial factors alongside real economic indicators when assessing exchange rates [2][3][6]. Exchange Rate Framework - The neoclassical framework emphasizes real economic factors while downplaying the impact of financial factors on exchange rates, which may lead to significant misjudgments in exchange rate assessments [3][6]. - In contrast, post-Keynesian economics posits that capital flows and expectations are the core mechanisms driving exchange rate fluctuations, especially in a highly financialized economy [3][6][15]. Types of Exchange Rates - There are three main forms of exchange rates: bilateral exchange rates (especially against the US dollar), nominal effective exchange rates, and real effective exchange rates, with the latter being crucial for analyzing the impact on trade [5][6]. Factors Influencing Exchange Rates - Estimating the so-called "equilibrium value" of exchange rates is complex due to the multitude of bilateral and multilateral factors involved, with traditional models often failing to account for the significant role of capital flows [6][12]. - The post-Keynesian perspective argues that capital flows dominate exchange rate determination, as evidenced by the vast scale of foreign exchange market transactions compared to international trade [14][15]. Historical Context and Examples - Historical instances, such as the volatility of the US dollar post-Bretton Woods and the Asian financial crisis, illustrate the inadequacies of neoclassical models in explaining exchange rate movements [16]. - The article highlights the phenomenon of the Chinese yuan's "internal depreciation and external appreciation" post-2005, which aligns more closely with post-Keynesian theories than with neoclassical assumptions [17][18]. Recent Developments - Recent data indicates that despite improvements in China's manufacturing competitiveness, the real effective exchange rate of the yuan has depreciated by 16% from January 2022 to October 2025, contradicting neoclassical predictions [18].