据来自国际航运机构的数据显示，两艘货船已于周一驶向美国新奥尔良附近港口，将装载5月以来首批 运往中国的美国大豆；另一艘船正前往德州美湾沿岸的谷物码头，将装载3月中旬以来首批装运中国的 高粱。 这表明美国对华出口首次出现实质性恢复迹象。 而至目前为止，中美贸易达成阶段性协议后，来自中国的采购和装运数量仍远远不及此前美国官方公布 的预期数据。为打消市场疑虑，美国官方计划在未来两周内公布中美两国大豆采购协议，并坚称这些采 购协议会按期完成。 不过，在商业数据来看，截至目前为止中国依旧对美国大豆等在内的部分农产品加征10%的额外关税。 贸易数据也显示，2026年2月船期的巴西大豆报价较美国供应便宜近1美元/蒲，这意味来自中国的私营 买家会更加倾向购买巴西大豆，除非出现非商业性的购买。 从更多统计数据来看，自10月底中美双方在韩国贸易谈判取得进展后，中国买家已经陆续预定了近200 万吨的美国大豆及少量小麦。就在本周一，美国私人出口商报告显示，又对中国完成12.3万吨的大豆销 售。 不过，截至目前为止，市场依旧对来自中国的采购持不乐观态度。在美国本年度大豆收获上市前，美国 芝加哥大豆市场曾认为，中美之间大豆问题会很快得到 ...

据路透社援引其看到的一份航运时间表，两艘货轮于11月24日驶往美国新奥尔良附近的粮食港口码头， 将装载自5月以来首批运往中国的美国大豆。另有一艘货轮正驶往得克萨斯州墨西哥湾沿岸的一个粮食 码头，将在未来几天装载自3月中旬以来首批运往中国的美国高粱。 商务部新闻发言人10月30日表示，中美经贸团队通过25日至26日吉隆坡磋商达成的成果共识包括扩大农 产品贸易。商务部新闻发言人何亚东11月13日在回应"美方称中国同意购买美国大豆"相关问题时表示， 近日，商务部已就中美吉隆坡经贸磋商联合安排发布相关消息，介绍了磋商达成的主要成果共识，其中 包括农产品贸易。中国是全球农产品贸易的重要参与者，将继续秉持开放合作的态度，与全球贸易伙伴 持续深化互利合作，共同维护开放、稳定、可持续的全球贸易体系。 美国俄亥俄 州出产的大豆（资料图） 图源：外媒 孔尔军 报道提到，近几个月来，中方没有采购这些美国农产品，损失数十亿美元的美国农民和粮食贸易商一直 在等待对华出口恢复。 今年8月19日，美国大豆协会在一封致特朗普总统的公开信中呼吁美国政府与中方达成协议，取消关 税，并在可能的情况下促成中方大量购买美国大豆的协议。信中警告称，若中 ...

Core Insights - The "China-US Agricultural Trade Cooperation Forum" emphasizes the importance of agricultural cooperation between the two countries, highlighting mutual benefits and the potential for global food security and economic prosperity [1][3] - The forum aims to strengthen agricultural trade cooperation and trust amid global challenges such as geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions, positioning agricultural trade as a stabilizing force in US-China relations [3][4] Group 1: Trade Relations - The US and China are significant agricultural trade partners, with agricultural cooperation being a crucial component of their economic relationship [1][3] - The US soybean industry is a key area of focus, with the USDA predicting global soybean production to reach 427 million tons by the 2025/26 season, with the US contributing over 25% [3] - The US Grain Association expresses commitment to maintaining trade relations with China, emphasizing the importance of open and mutually beneficial trade [4][6] Group 2: Market Dynamics - China is the largest market for US sorghum, with imports expected to reach 8.657 million tons in 2024, primarily from the US, Australia, and Argentina [6] - The US is facing challenges with high input costs and declining prices, impacting farmers' ability to sustain their operations [6][7] - The US agricultural sector is optimistic about future trade opportunities, emphasizing the need for continued communication to improve trade relations [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent statements from Chinese officials regarding the import of U.S. feed grains and oilseeds have led to significant cancellations of agricultural orders from the U.S., indicating a severe crisis for American farmers and related industries [1][8]. Group 1: Impact on U.S. Agriculture - The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported a drastic 72% drop in China's pork orders, with 12,000 tons canceled, marking the lowest weekly delivery volume of the year [3]. - The American "Agricultural Transportation Coalition" (AgTC) highlighted widespread cancellations across various agricultural sectors, describing the situation as a "full-blown crisis" affecting farmers, dock workers, and truck drivers [1][4]. - Reports indicate that U.S. agricultural prices have already dropped by over 20% due to the decline in trade with China, impacting inventory planning and future investments [7]. Group 2: Shift in Supply Sources - China plans to import a significant amount of soybeans from South America, with expectations of 8.5 million tons in April and 12 million tons in May, creating a record import volume for the second quarter [9]. - The Chinese government emphasized that the share of U.S. grains in its domestic consumption is low, and alternative sources are readily available, reducing reliance on U.S. imports [8]. Group 3: Economic Challenges for Exporters - Exporters are facing substantial economic losses, with reports of canceled orders and increased shipping costs due to rerouting cargo to other markets [4][6]. - A hay exporter noted that they had to redirect shipments to Japan and Taiwan, incurring additional costs and ultimately leading to workforce reductions [6][7]. - The introduction of new shipping fees for containerized agricultural products poses an additional financial challenge for U.S. exporters, as most valuable agricultural exports are transported in this manner [11].