Group 1 - The eighth China International Import Expo (CIIE) serves as a platform for foreign companies to explore the Chinese market and reflects their intentions and expectations [1][2] - American companies are increasing their presence in the Chinese market despite trade challenges, with significant participation in the CIIE, showcasing over 50,000 square meters of exhibition space [2] - Companies like Cargill and GE Healthcare are demonstrating their commitment by presenting a wide range of innovative products and aiming for substantial new collaborations, with Cargill targeting over $3 billion in new partnerships [2] Group 2 - The American Grain Association emphasizes the CIIE as a bridge for understanding and trust, aiming to explore sustainable grain and energy systems with Chinese partners [2] - The American Soybean Export Association highlights the potential for growth in the Chinese market and expresses a desire to maintain strong relationships and trust with Chinese consumers [2] - Qualcomm and JLL are committed to aligning their technological visions and services with the needs of the Chinese market, indicating a long-term investment strategy in China [3]

Group 1 - The eighth China International Import Expo (CIIE) serves as a platform for foreign investment firms to explore opportunities in the Chinese market, with American companies showing strong interest despite trade challenges [1][2] - American exhibitors occupy over 50,000 square meters at the CIIE, maintaining the largest presence for seven consecutive years, indicating a commitment to the Chinese market [1][2] - Major American companies, such as Cargill and GE Healthcare, are significantly increasing their participation, showcasing hundreds of products and aiming for substantial new collaborations, with Cargill targeting over $3 billion in new deals [2] Group 2 - American firms express confidence in the Chinese market's potential, with statements highlighting that even a 1% market share is substantial for their business [1][3] - The CIIE is viewed as a bridge for enhancing understanding and trust between American and Chinese businesses, facilitating discussions on sustainable agricultural practices and innovative product applications [2][3] - Companies like Qualcomm and JLL emphasize their long-term commitment to the Chinese market, aiming to transform exhibition products into commercial opportunities and share in China's development [3]

Group 1 - The China International Import Expo (CIIE) serves as a platform for foreign companies to explore the Chinese market and indicates foreign investment trends [1][2] - American companies are increasing their presence in the Chinese market despite trade challenges, with significant participation from major firms [2][3] - The participation of U.S. companies at the CIIE has grown, with over 50,000 square meters of exhibition space, maintaining the largest presence for seven consecutive years [1][2] Group 2 - Major U.S. firms like Cargill and GE Healthcare are showcasing a wide range of products, with Cargill presenting over 100 innovative solutions and aiming for over $3 billion in new collaborations [2] - The U.S. Grain Council emphasizes the expo as a platform for enhancing understanding and trust, aiming for sustainable grain and energy systems in collaboration with Chinese partners [2] - Qualcomm and JLL express commitment to the Chinese market, highlighting the integration of global technology with local industry needs and supporting multinational companies in transforming exhibits into commercial opportunities [3]

Core Viewpoint - This autumn, U.S. farmers are experiencing a bumper harvest, but they are not celebrating due to a significant drop in soybean orders from China, which has fallen to zero for the first time in nearly 30 years, primarily due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Soybean Market - U.S. soybean imports from China have reached a historic low, with the country losing its competitive edge against Brazilian soybeans, which are 10%-15% cheaper due to tariff exemptions [1][3]. - The Taiwanese government announced plans to purchase $10 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products over the next four years, including soybeans, wheat, corn, and beef, in an effort to support U.S. farmers [1][3]. Group 2: Taiwan's Agricultural Impact - The Taiwanese agricultural sector is vulnerable due to limited arable land, and the influx of U.S. agricultural products could severely impact local farmers [3][5]. - The financial burden of the $10 billion procurement translates to nearly 4,000 New Taiwan Dollars per citizen, raising concerns among the local population about the economic implications of such a deal [3][5]. Group 3: Political Dynamics - The Taiwanese administration's decision to purchase U.S. agricultural products is seen as an attempt to curry favor with the Trump administration, hoping to gain political support against mainland China [3][5]. - The ongoing trade war has led to a significant increase in soybean imports from Brazil and Argentina, with Argentina's exports rising by 110% year-on-year [5][7]. Group 4: Public Sentiment - There is growing discontent among the Taiwanese public regarding the government's approach to U.S. relations, with calls for a reassessment of policies that prioritize U.S. interests over local welfare [7].

2025 年 09 月 12 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：跟随美豆反弹，等待 USDA 供需报告 豆一：反弹震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 9 月 11 日 CBOT 大豆日评：供需报告出台在即，仓位调整活跃，大豆上涨。北京德润林 2025 年 9 月 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2511 （元/吨） | 3911 | -60（-0.13%） | 3957 | +31 （+0.79%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 3066 | -10（-0.33%） | 3090 | +15（+0.49%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1034 +9 | （+0.88%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 287.7 | ...

Core Insights - The latest USDA weekly crop progress report indicates that as of the week ending August 31, the good-to-excellent rating for U.S. corn stands at 69%, consistent with market expectations, down from 71% the previous week, and up from 65% the same time last year [1] - As of the same week, the maturity rate for U.S. corn is reported at 15%, an increase from 7% the previous week, but slightly below the 18% recorded at the same time last year and in line with the five-year average of 14% [1] Summary by Category - **Crop Quality** - U.S. corn good-to-excellent rating is 69%, unchanged from market expectations, down from 71% the previous week, and up from 65% year-on-year [1] - **Crop Maturity** - U.S. corn maturity rate is 15%, up from 7% the previous week, down from 18% year-on-year, and in line with the five-year average of 14% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the challenges faced by American farmers due to the absence of Chinese buyers for their agricultural products, particularly soybeans, despite a record harvest season [1][3]. Group 1: Agricultural Production and Market Dynamics - American farmers are experiencing a significant increase in corn and soybean production, with most states reporting yields higher than last year [1]. - The lack of orders from China has left farmers anxious, as they had anticipated strong demand from this key market [1][3]. - The U.S. soybean market share in China has drastically declined from nearly 50% in 2016 to only 20% currently, with Brazil capturing 70% of the market [1]. Group 2: Trade Policies and Political Implications - The trade tensions initiated by President Trump's policies have led to retaliatory measures from China, resulting in decreased demand for U.S. soybeans [1]. - Trump's recent plea for increased soybean orders from China has been met with criticism, as many attribute the current market situation to his administration's trade decisions [1][3]. - The article suggests that for any improvement in trade relations, Trump must reconsider and eliminate unreasonable tariffs to rebuild trust with China [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - American farmers are left hoping that China will not completely eliminate U.S. soybeans from its market, although this trend appears increasingly likely [5]. - The article emphasizes the need for cooperation between the U.S. and China, suggesting that a stable trade relationship is essential for the benefit of both nations [6].

Core Insights - The latest USDA weekly crop progress report indicates that as of the week ending August 17, 2025, the good-to-excellent rating for U.S. corn stands at 71%, matching market expectations but slightly down from 72% the previous week and up from 67% year-over-year [1] - The wax maturity rate for U.S. corn during the same week is reported at 72%, an increase from 58% the prior week, and consistent with the 72% recorded in the same week last year, although slightly below the five-year average of 73% [1]

Core Insights - The latest USDA weekly crop progress report indicates that as of the week ending August 3, the good-to-excellent rating for U.S. corn stands at 73%, slightly above market expectations of 72% and unchanged from the previous week, while significantly higher than the 67% recorded during the same period last year [1] Group 1 - The corn silking rate is reported at 88%, an increase from 76% the previous week and slightly above the 86% recorded in the same week last year, but below the five-year average of 89% [1]

Core Viewpoint - A significant trade conflict is escalating between China and the United States, particularly affecting agricultural products, as China has ended tariff exemptions on U.S. agricultural imports, leading to increased tariffs and potential market shifts [1][3][4]. Group 1: Impact on U.S. Agriculture - The U.S. agricultural sector faces severe consequences, with tariffs on beef expected to rise from 32.5% to 62.0%, making U.S. beef more expensive than competitors like Australian and Brazilian beef [3][4]. - Pork tariffs could increase from 57% to 87%, drastically reducing the share of U.S. pork in China's imports from 18% to single digits [3][4]. - The agricultural market is experiencing a broad impact, with various products like grains, oilseeds, and nuts losing competitiveness in China [3][4]. Group 2: China's Agricultural Landscape - China is projected to produce 57.06 million tons of domestic pork in 2024, with U.S. pork imports constituting only 0.7% of its supply, indicating minimal impact from the U.S. exit [5]. - The demand for U.S. pork by Chinese fast-food and hotpot restaurants is expected to decline, leading to a potential 15% increase in domestic substitute prices [5]. - South American countries are seizing the opportunity to expand their market share in China, with Brazil investing $5 billion to enhance cold chain logistics and Argentina accelerating beef export certifications [5]. Group 3: Strategic Adjustments by Allies - U.S. allies are adjusting their strategies in response to the trade conflict, with the EU and Japan negotiating favorable terms in exchange for tariff concessions [7]. - China's termination of agricultural tariff exemptions signals a refusal to engage in one-sided concessions during negotiations [7]. Group 4: Future Projections - The ongoing trade negotiations are critical, with the U.S. agricultural sector expressing concerns about the long-term implications of the tariff increases, particularly for pork, which may follow the trajectory of soybeans, whose market share in China has drastically declined [9]. - The anticipated U.S. pork imports to China are expected to drop from 408,000 tons in 2024 to less than 100,000 tons this year, indicating a significant market shift [9].