不过，中方并没有回应特朗普的请求。中国之所以对美国大豆失去了兴趣，主要原因是特朗普对华加征关税，削弱了美国大豆的竞争力。对比之下，巴西大 豆免税，价格较美国低10%-15%，同样的，阿根廷也在9月22日取消了大豆、玉米、小麦等农产品的出口税。没了中国订单，美国豆农正一筹莫展。然而， 就在这个时候，赖清德当局出手了。9月30日，他在接见美国农业部贸易及对外农业事务次长林德柏格时宣布，台湾打算在未来四年购买100亿美元的美国农 产品，主要包括大豆、小麦、玉米和牛肉。 9月30日，赖清德会见美国农业部贸易及对外农业事务次长林德柏格 我们知道，台湾作为一个以山地为主的省，可供发展农业的土地非常有限，农业相当脆弱，一旦美国农产品进入台湾市场，台湾本地农业将遭受灭顶之灾。 赖清德对此不可能不清楚，然而他选择为美国雪中送炭，帮助特朗普政府与中国大陆打关税战的做法，引发了本地民众的强烈不满。岛内媒体强调，赖清德 这是要把台湾的农产品当"献礼"送给美国，进一步掏空台湾。100亿美元采购清单，等于每位台湾民众要承担近4000元新台币的成本。 今年秋季，美国农场主迎来一场大丰收，但他们的脸上看不到喜悦。在往年的这个时间段，中国作为 ...

2025 年 09 月 12 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：跟随美豆反弹，等待 USDA 供需报告 豆一：反弹震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 9 月 11 日 CBOT 大豆日评：供需报告出台在即，仓位调整活跃，大豆上涨。北京德润林 2025 年 9 月 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2511 （元/吨） | 3911 | -60（-0.13%） | 3957 | +31 （+0.79%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 3066 | -10（-0.33%） | 3090 | +15（+0.49%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1034 +9 | （+0.88%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 287.7 | ...

Core Insights - The latest USDA weekly crop progress report indicates that as of the week ending August 31, the good-to-excellent rating for U.S. corn stands at 69%, consistent with market expectations, down from 71% the previous week, and up from 65% the same time last year [1] - As of the same week, the maturity rate for U.S. corn is reported at 15%, an increase from 7% the previous week, but slightly below the 18% recorded at the same time last year and in line with the five-year average of 14% [1] Summary by Category - **Crop Quality** - U.S. corn good-to-excellent rating is 69%, unchanged from market expectations, down from 71% the previous week, and up from 65% year-on-year [1] - **Crop Maturity** - U.S. corn maturity rate is 15%, up from 7% the previous week, down from 18% year-on-year, and in line with the five-year average of 14% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the challenges faced by American farmers due to the absence of Chinese buyers for their agricultural products, particularly soybeans, despite a record harvest season [1][3]. Group 1: Agricultural Production and Market Dynamics - American farmers are experiencing a significant increase in corn and soybean production, with most states reporting yields higher than last year [1]. - The lack of orders from China has left farmers anxious, as they had anticipated strong demand from this key market [1][3]. - The U.S. soybean market share in China has drastically declined from nearly 50% in 2016 to only 20% currently, with Brazil capturing 70% of the market [1]. Group 2: Trade Policies and Political Implications - The trade tensions initiated by President Trump's policies have led to retaliatory measures from China, resulting in decreased demand for U.S. soybeans [1]. - Trump's recent plea for increased soybean orders from China has been met with criticism, as many attribute the current market situation to his administration's trade decisions [1][3]. - The article suggests that for any improvement in trade relations, Trump must reconsider and eliminate unreasonable tariffs to rebuild trust with China [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - American farmers are left hoping that China will not completely eliminate U.S. soybeans from its market, although this trend appears increasingly likely [5]. - The article emphasizes the need for cooperation between the U.S. and China, suggesting that a stable trade relationship is essential for the benefit of both nations [6].

Core Insights - The latest USDA weekly crop progress report indicates that as of the week ending August 17, 2025, the good-to-excellent rating for U.S. corn stands at 71%, matching market expectations but slightly down from 72% the previous week and up from 67% year-over-year [1] - The wax maturity rate for U.S. corn during the same week is reported at 72%, an increase from 58% the prior week, and consistent with the 72% recorded in the same week last year, although slightly below the five-year average of 73% [1]

（文章来源：新华财经） 美国农业部最新每周作物生长报告显示，截至8月3日当周，美国玉米优良率为73%，市场预期为72%， 前一周为73%，上年同期为67%；玉米吐丝率为88%，上一周为76%，上年同期为86%， 五年均值为 89%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - A significant trade conflict is escalating between China and the United States, particularly affecting agricultural products, as China has ended tariff exemptions on U.S. agricultural imports, leading to increased tariffs and potential market shifts [1][3][4]. Group 1: Impact on U.S. Agriculture - The U.S. agricultural sector faces severe consequences, with tariffs on beef expected to rise from 32.5% to 62.0%, making U.S. beef more expensive than competitors like Australian and Brazilian beef [3][4]. - Pork tariffs could increase from 57% to 87%, drastically reducing the share of U.S. pork in China's imports from 18% to single digits [3][4]. - The agricultural market is experiencing a broad impact, with various products like grains, oilseeds, and nuts losing competitiveness in China [3][4]. Group 2: China's Agricultural Landscape - China is projected to produce 57.06 million tons of domestic pork in 2024, with U.S. pork imports constituting only 0.7% of its supply, indicating minimal impact from the U.S. exit [5]. - The demand for U.S. pork by Chinese fast-food and hotpot restaurants is expected to decline, leading to a potential 15% increase in domestic substitute prices [5]. - South American countries are seizing the opportunity to expand their market share in China, with Brazil investing $5 billion to enhance cold chain logistics and Argentina accelerating beef export certifications [5]. Group 3: Strategic Adjustments by Allies - U.S. allies are adjusting their strategies in response to the trade conflict, with the EU and Japan negotiating favorable terms in exchange for tariff concessions [7]. - China's termination of agricultural tariff exemptions signals a refusal to engage in one-sided concessions during negotiations [7]. Group 4: Future Projections - The ongoing trade negotiations are critical, with the U.S. agricultural sector expressing concerns about the long-term implications of the tariff increases, particularly for pork, which may follow the trajectory of soybeans, whose market share in China has drastically declined [9]. - The anticipated U.S. pork imports to China are expected to drop from 408,000 tons in 2024 to less than 100,000 tons this year, indicating a significant market shift [9].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Agriculture has confirmed that the previously reported sale of 135,000 tons of U.S. corn to China is not accurate [1] Group 1 - The transaction of 135,000 tons of corn was initially reported but has now been deemed false by the U.S. Department of Agriculture [1]

Group 1 - The core issue is that China has not imported any U.S. crude oil for two consecutive months, resulting in the cancellation of 18 million barrels of orders, leading to over $10 billion in losses for U.S. shale oil companies [1][3] - The U.S. oil export volume has reached a five-year low due to this situation, with 40% of drilling platforms in Texas being shut down and thousands of workers losing their jobs [3][4] - The U.S. shale oil production cost has risen to $65 per barrel, while the current international oil price is only $61, indicating a loss of $4 for every barrel sold [3] Group 2 - China's refusal to purchase U.S. crude oil is supported by its strategic reserves and a significant reduction in traditional fuel demand due to the rapid development of its new energy vehicle sector [6] - Russia has expressed readiness to supply as much oil as China needs, while OPEC plans to increase oil production, further diminishing U.S. leverage in the energy market [6] - The U.S. has lost its competitive edge in various sectors, including agriculture, where imports of U.S. soybeans and other products have drastically decreased since the trade war began [9]

美国玉米与大豆的"跷跷板"，玉米作物评级上升，大豆却因"水患"前景堪忧？未来一周天气展望喜忧参 半，美国作物能否迎来转机？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...