11月24日，中美两国高层进行的通话引起了全球的广泛关注。这些年，中美之间不断发生摩擦，这使得许多涉及中美贸易的国家和企业感到 紧张。因为中美两国经济体量庞大，他们的每一个决定和行动都可能对全球经济产生巨大影响。以特朗普上任后的关税政策为例，每当他提 高关税，许多小公司往往会因此失去订单；白宫发布一项禁令，甚至可能导致一个行业的衰落。而如果中国决定控制稀土出口，全球的制造 业大国就会急忙派人前来中国争取出口许可。可以说，世界上大多数国家都无法忽视中美两国之间的博弈。从特朗普第一任期开始，到如 今，跨国企业在中美之间承受了不少压力。不过，目前有了好消息，或许这样的紧张局面正在发生改变。 就在特朗普计划两次访问中国的消息刚传出时，美国却突然宣布中国将购买8700万吨美国大豆，这一消息引发了人们对中美关系在明年可能 发生变化的猜测。 因此，美国可能需要调整其经济政策。虽然特朗普不愿意完全放弃加税这个杀手锏，但现实情况并不允许他随意操作。毕竟，美国政府并没 有什么手段能彻底压制中国，每次对中国的制裁措施，实际上也会影响到美国自身。如果美国能够与中国保持良好关系，把对抗转化为合 作，这对美国来说无疑是件好事，而全球经济 ...

Group 1 - The eighth China International Import Expo (CIIE) serves as a platform for foreign companies to explore the Chinese market and reflects their intentions and expectations [1][2] - American companies are increasing their presence in the Chinese market despite trade challenges, with significant participation in the CIIE, showcasing over 50,000 square meters of exhibition space [2] - Companies like Cargill and GE Healthcare are demonstrating their commitment by presenting a wide range of innovative products and aiming for substantial new collaborations, with Cargill targeting over $3 billion in new partnerships [2] Group 2 - The American Grain Association emphasizes the CIIE as a bridge for understanding and trust, aiming to explore sustainable grain and energy systems with Chinese partners [2] - The American Soybean Export Association highlights the potential for growth in the Chinese market and expresses a desire to maintain strong relationships and trust with Chinese consumers [2] - Qualcomm and JLL are committed to aligning their technological visions and services with the needs of the Chinese market, indicating a long-term investment strategy in China [3]

Group 1 - The eighth China International Import Expo (CIIE) serves as a platform for foreign investment firms to explore opportunities in the Chinese market, with American companies showing strong interest despite trade challenges [1][2] - American exhibitors occupy over 50,000 square meters at the CIIE, maintaining the largest presence for seven consecutive years, indicating a commitment to the Chinese market [1][2] - Major American companies, such as Cargill and GE Healthcare, are significantly increasing their participation, showcasing hundreds of products and aiming for substantial new collaborations, with Cargill targeting over $3 billion in new deals [2] Group 2 - American firms express confidence in the Chinese market's potential, with statements highlighting that even a 1% market share is substantial for their business [1][3] - The CIIE is viewed as a bridge for enhancing understanding and trust between American and Chinese businesses, facilitating discussions on sustainable agricultural practices and innovative product applications [2][3] - Companies like Qualcomm and JLL emphasize their long-term commitment to the Chinese market, aiming to transform exhibition products into commercial opportunities and share in China's development [3]

Group 1 - The China International Import Expo (CIIE) serves as a platform for foreign companies to explore the Chinese market and indicates foreign investment trends [1][2] - American companies are increasing their presence in the Chinese market despite trade challenges, with significant participation from major firms [2][3] - The participation of U.S. companies at the CIIE has grown, with over 50,000 square meters of exhibition space, maintaining the largest presence for seven consecutive years [1][2] Group 2 - Major U.S. firms like Cargill and GE Healthcare are showcasing a wide range of products, with Cargill presenting over 100 innovative solutions and aiming for over $3 billion in new collaborations [2] - The U.S. Grain Council emphasizes the expo as a platform for enhancing understanding and trust, aiming for sustainable grain and energy systems in collaboration with Chinese partners [2] - Qualcomm and JLL express commitment to the Chinese market, highlighting the integration of global technology with local industry needs and supporting multinational companies in transforming exhibits into commercial opportunities [3]

Core Viewpoint - This autumn, U.S. farmers are experiencing a bumper harvest, but they are not celebrating due to a significant drop in soybean orders from China, which has fallen to zero for the first time in nearly 30 years, primarily due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Soybean Market - U.S. soybean imports from China have reached a historic low, with the country losing its competitive edge against Brazilian soybeans, which are 10%-15% cheaper due to tariff exemptions [1][3]. - The Taiwanese government announced plans to purchase $10 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products over the next four years, including soybeans, wheat, corn, and beef, in an effort to support U.S. farmers [1][3]. Group 2: Taiwan's Agricultural Impact - The Taiwanese agricultural sector is vulnerable due to limited arable land, and the influx of U.S. agricultural products could severely impact local farmers [3][5]. - The financial burden of the $10 billion procurement translates to nearly 4,000 New Taiwan Dollars per citizen, raising concerns among the local population about the economic implications of such a deal [3][5]. Group 3: Political Dynamics - The Taiwanese administration's decision to purchase U.S. agricultural products is seen as an attempt to curry favor with the Trump administration, hoping to gain political support against mainland China [3][5]. - The ongoing trade war has led to a significant increase in soybean imports from Brazil and Argentina, with Argentina's exports rising by 110% year-on-year [5][7]. Group 4: Public Sentiment - There is growing discontent among the Taiwanese public regarding the government's approach to U.S. relations, with calls for a reassessment of policies that prioritize U.S. interests over local welfare [7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - CBOT soybean futures closed higher on September 11, 2025, with the benchmark contract up 0.9%, ending a two - day losing streak as traders adjusted positions ahead of the USDA's monthly global supply - demand report on September 12 [3]. - Analysts expect the USDA to lower the US soybean and corn production forecasts in the report due to late - summer drought, with the soybean yield forecast to be cut to 53.3 bushels per acre from 53.6 bushels last month, but the production is still expected to be 4.271 billion bushels, one of the largest in US history [3]. - Some analysts expect the USDA to lower the 2025/26 US soybean export forecast in the report because of weak Chinese demand for US soybeans due to the Sino - US trade war [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Prices**: DCE Bean No.1 2511 closed at 3911 yuan/ton during the day session (down 60 yuan or 0.13%) and 3957 yuan/ton at night (up 31 yuan or 0.79%); DCE Soybean Meal 2601 closed at 3066 yuan/ton during the day session (down 10 yuan or 0.33%) and 3090 yuan/ton at night (up 15 yuan or 0.49%); CBOT Soybean 11 closed at 1034 cents/bushel (up 9 cents or 0.88%); CBOT Soybean Meal 12 closed at 287.7 dollars/short ton (up 2 dollars or 0.70%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the spot price of soybean meal (43%) was 3050 - 3070 yuan/ton, flat compared to the previous day; in East China and South China, different price spreads relative to futures contracts were reported, mostly remaining unchanged [1]. - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 10.6 million tons per day on the previous trading day, and the inventory was 106.39 million tons per week [1]. [Macro and Industry News] - On September 11, 2025, CBOT soybean futures rose as traders adjusted positions ahead of the USDA's monthly global supply - demand report, which will include US corn and soybean production forecasts [3].

Core Insights - The latest USDA weekly crop progress report indicates that as of the week ending August 31, the good-to-excellent rating for U.S. corn stands at 69%, consistent with market expectations, down from 71% the previous week, and up from 65% the same time last year [1] - As of the same week, the maturity rate for U.S. corn is reported at 15%, an increase from 7% the previous week, but slightly below the 18% recorded at the same time last year and in line with the five-year average of 14% [1] Summary by Category - **Crop Quality** - U.S. corn good-to-excellent rating is 69%, unchanged from market expectations, down from 71% the previous week, and up from 65% year-on-year [1] - **Crop Maturity** - U.S. corn maturity rate is 15%, up from 7% the previous week, down from 18% year-on-year, and in line with the five-year average of 14% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the challenges faced by American farmers due to the absence of Chinese buyers for their agricultural products, particularly soybeans, despite a record harvest season [1][3]. Group 1: Agricultural Production and Market Dynamics - American farmers are experiencing a significant increase in corn and soybean production, with most states reporting yields higher than last year [1]. - The lack of orders from China has left farmers anxious, as they had anticipated strong demand from this key market [1][3]. - The U.S. soybean market share in China has drastically declined from nearly 50% in 2016 to only 20% currently, with Brazil capturing 70% of the market [1]. Group 2: Trade Policies and Political Implications - The trade tensions initiated by President Trump's policies have led to retaliatory measures from China, resulting in decreased demand for U.S. soybeans [1]. - Trump's recent plea for increased soybean orders from China has been met with criticism, as many attribute the current market situation to his administration's trade decisions [1][3]. - The article suggests that for any improvement in trade relations, Trump must reconsider and eliminate unreasonable tariffs to rebuild trust with China [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - American farmers are left hoping that China will not completely eliminate U.S. soybeans from its market, although this trend appears increasingly likely [5]. - The article emphasizes the need for cooperation between the U.S. and China, suggesting that a stable trade relationship is essential for the benefit of both nations [6].

Core Insights - The latest USDA weekly crop progress report indicates that as of the week ending August 17, 2025, the good-to-excellent rating for U.S. corn stands at 71%, matching market expectations but slightly down from 72% the previous week and up from 67% year-over-year [1] - The wax maturity rate for U.S. corn during the same week is reported at 72%, an increase from 58% the prior week, and consistent with the 72% recorded in the same week last year, although slightly below the five-year average of 73% [1]

Core Insights - The latest USDA weekly crop progress report indicates that as of the week ending August 3, the good-to-excellent rating for U.S. corn stands at 73%, slightly above market expectations of 72% and unchanged from the previous week, while significantly higher than the 67% recorded during the same period last year [1] Group 1 - The corn silking rate is reported at 88%, an increase from 76% the previous week and slightly above the 86% recorded in the same week last year, but below the five-year average of 89% [1]