1月9日，2025年对于贵金属市场而言是极具里程碑意义的一年。EasyMarkets易信观察到，在史无前例 的投资需求推动下，黄金和白银价格双双飙升至历史高点。然而，通过分析全球三大铸币厂的最新销售 数据可以发现，实物贵金属的需求在不同地区呈现出显著的差异化特征。尽管整体市场热度高涨，但北 美等传统市场的实物需求却意外显得有些"后劲不足"。 从区域表现来看，北美投资者虽然在衍生品市场占据主导，但对实物金币的兴趣有所回落。 EasyMarkets易信表示，美国铸币局去年售出的美国鹰扬金币仅为183，500盎司，同比降幅超过55%。 与之形成对比的是，澳大利亚珀斯铸币局的实物黄金销量增长了16%，达到454，514盎司。该铸币局认 为，对2026年初降息的强烈预期、主要经济体的前景不明朗以及地缘局势的动荡，共同支撑了实物金条 作为避险核心资产的地位。 英国市场则展现出了惊人的爆发力。英国皇家铸币局表示，其黄金销量在去年第四季度猛增144%，单 克金价更是在10月首次突破100英镑。EasyMarkets易信认为，实物市场的结构正在发生变化，大批"新 面孔"的加入为市场注入了动力。数据显示，去年该铸币局的客户数量创 ...

Group 1 - The global physical gold market is experiencing significant divergence, with Asian buyers continuing to purchase aggressively while U.S. investors are cashing out at high levels, reflecting differing regional perspectives on economic outlook and gold market trends [1] - In the U.S. market, there is an oversupply of gold bars and coins, leading some precious metal dealers to reduce premiums to the lowest levels in six years to stimulate sales. Retail investors are facing additional costs when selling gold, with the cost to sell an ounce of American Eagle coin dropping from $175 four years ago to about $20 now [3] - The demand for gold bars and coins in North America and Western Europe has been declining for the past three years, with the first quarter of 2025 showing the largest gap since records began in 2014, primarily driven by sell-offs in the U.S. market [3] Group 2 - In the first quarter of 2025, demand for gold bars and coins in the Asia-Pacific region grew by 3%, with China seeing a 12% increase and countries like South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia experiencing over 30% growth [4] - Concerns over the impact of Trump's tariffs and domestic currency depreciation have made gold a preferred asset for Asian investors, who have played a key role in the recent rise in gold prices since 2024 [4] - Wall Street's views on whether the gold price surge has ended are mixed, with Goldman Sachs reaffirming its prediction of gold reaching $4,000 per ounce next year, while Morgan Stanley expects it to reach $3,800 by the end of this year, and Citigroup forecasts a drop below $3,000 next year [4]

Core Viewpoint - There is a significant divergence in the physical gold market between Asia and the United States, with Asian buyers continuing to purchase gold assets while American investors are looking to cash out at high prices, indicating differing economic outlooks and market sentiments globally [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. market for gold bars and coins is experiencing an oversupply, leading some dealers to reduce premiums to the lowest levels in six years to stimulate sales [1]. - The premium for purchasing an ounce of American Eagle gold coins has dropped from $175 four years ago to $20 currently, while sellers now have to pay around $20 to sell gold, compared to a profit of $121 in 2021 [1]. - Sales of newly minted physical gold products, such as the American Eagle coins, have plummeted by over 70% year-on-year in May [1]. Group 2: Regional Demand Trends - Demand for gold bars and coins in North America and Western Europe has been declining over the past three years, while demand in other regions, particularly Asia, has been rising, creating the largest annual gap since records began in 2014 [1][2]. - In the Asia-Pacific region, demand for gold bars and coins is expected to grow by 3% in Q1 2025, with China seeing a 12% increase and countries like South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia experiencing over 30% growth [3]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - American retail investors, who previously hoarded gold, are now less concerned about risks such as tariffs, rising government debt, and geopolitical tensions, leading to a reduction in their reasons for purchasing gold [2]. - The fear-driven demand for gold among U.S. investors has decreased, as they perceive the current situation to be manageable, with expectations that geopolitical tensions may ease and economic growth may not be as poor as anticipated [3]. Group 4: Future Price Predictions - There is a divergence among Wall Street investment banks regarding the future of gold prices, with Goldman Sachs predicting prices could reach $4,000 per ounce next year, while Morgan Stanley expects prices to hit $3,800 by year-end, and Citigroup forecasts a drop below $3,000 next year [4].