北京时间11月20日21:30，被美国政府停摆推迟近两月的 9 月非农报告正式公布。美国劳工统计局数据显示，美国9月非农就业人数增加11.9万，远好于此前 市场预计的5万。此外，9月美国失业率继续上升，环比上升0.1个百分点至4.4%，高于预期和前值4.3%，主要原因是黑人失业率上升，部分原因是劳动参与 率意外升至62.4%，9月失业率创下2021年11月以来的最高水平。 美国9月非农报告的发布，强化了美联储在10月会议上的判断，投资者调降了对美联储12月降息的押注，市场数据显示，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率已 经降至39%左右。这份被市场称为"矛盾"的9月非农报告，让黄金承受压力，上行空间受到明显限制。数据一出，现货黄金短线下行34美元，金价从4107美 元/盎司水平快速走下至4072美元/盎司区间水平，后收复失地。 市场分析认为，黄金作为最佳避险资产，投资者合理配置黄金可以降低投资组合的风险。短期内，美国9月非农数据好坏参半为投资者带来独特的黄金投资 机会；长期来看，美联储降息周期尚未结束、地缘局势风险不断、全球央行购金势头不减和黄金投资需求持续上涨等，都将支撑金价上行。总之，眼下正是 布局黄金市场的 ...

北京时间11月20日21:30，被美国政府停摆推迟近两月的 9 月非农报告正式公布。美国劳工统计局数据显示，美国9月非农就业人数增加11.9万，远好于此前 市场预计的5万。此外，9月美国失业率继续上升，环比上升0.1个百分点至4.4%，高于预期和前值4.3%，主要原因是黑人失业率上升，部分原因是劳动参与 率意外升至62.4%，9月失业率创下2021年11月以来的最高水平。 展望未来，黄金价格短期震荡难免，长期牛市格局牢不可破，黄金的配置价值不容忽视。当然，黄金投资市场行情瞬息万变，金荣中国温馨提醒，黄金虽然 是资产组合的"稳定器"，但并非"稳赚"的代名词，投资者应该从少量资金开始，选择适合自己的黄金投资产品和正规的黄金交易平台，掌握轻仓入市、止盈 止损、顺势而为等投资技巧，避免频繁交易，时刻牢记"投资有风险，入市需谨慎"才是稳妥的投资之道。 在黄金投资工具的选择上，投资目的不同，投资策略也应不同，如果是保守型投资者，可选择最直接的保值方式，通过银行或正规金店配置金条、金币等实 物黄金；如果想尝试短期交易，则可选择支持24小时T+0超短线交易的现货黄金，金荣中国作为正规的现货黄金交易平台，为投资者创造了安全、高 ...

彭博社10月29日援引一项调查结果报道，在过去四年中，黄金成为俄罗斯人最青睐的储蓄方式 之一，预计该国消费者黄金购买量将达到与西班牙或奥地利国家储备相当的水平。 来源：新华社 俄罗斯中央银行20日向俄罗斯国际文传电讯社确认， 该行已开始出售储备的实物黄金，以弥补 国家预算所需资金。 俄央行未透露销售实物黄金的时间或规模。据俄罗斯多家媒体报道，俄罗斯持有超过2300吨黄 金，是全球第五大黄金储备国。 据俄罗斯新闻社报道，乌克兰危机2022年2月全面升级以来，欧盟、七国集团冻结了俄罗斯接近 一半外汇储备，总额约3000亿欧元，其中大约2000亿欧元在欧洲清算银行等账户中。 美国彭博社上月底提供的数据显示，作为全球第二大黄金生产国，俄罗斯每年开采超过300吨黄 金。然而，自2022年以来，俄罗斯金条被禁止进入西方市场，而英国伦敦金银市场协会也不再 接受俄罗斯黄金。 为应对这一局面，俄罗斯取消针对零售黄金购买的增值税以刺激国内需求，并帮助受制裁矿企寻 找出口替代方案。 上述调查提供的数据显示，今年俄罗斯消费者对金条、金币和首饰等零售黄金的购买量预计将达 到62.2吨。 英国BCS全球市场公司位于莫斯科的分析师德米特里 ...

2025年11月11日，多家黄金珠宝品牌把足金首饰报价推上了1300元/克附近，周生生、周大福报1308元/克，老凤祥、老庙上海区报1310元/克。那一刻我就 想：这事儿对普通家庭意味着什么？ 这并不是个孤立数字——国际金价也一路往上。今年 11 月 11 日，现货黄金伦敦金/COMEX黄金期货都突破 4,130 美元/盎司以上。 这个联动关系让国内金 饰价格几乎"被拉上去"了一档。投资需求也在变： 中国黄金协会数据显示，2025年前三季度黄金首饰消费量为 270.036 吨，同比下降 32.50%；相反，金条 及金币反而同比增长 24.55%。所以一个趋势很明显：首饰金不是像以前那样"随便买买"，它越来越成"资本品"了。 写到这里，我站在金店门口，看到橱窗里的金链条在灯光下闪闪发光，心里却觉得那光有点"耀眼"得让人眯眼。金价破1300，不是一句"涨价"的新闻，而是 一个社会经济与家庭预算交汇的节点。 1. 消费者自己要更理性。如果买金是为了佩戴或纪念，那就看款式、看附加费用，看是否值得；如果买金纯为了保值，那至少要知道成本、回收机制、 时间周期这些坑在哪里。 2. 政策与服务端也要跟上。金饰行业里，工费、品 ...

金价重大拐点浮现：下周或将复刻历史行情，市场已进入风暴眼 最近身边买黄金的人是真多，不管是准备结婚买三金的小情侣，还是想着保值的大叔大妈，都在盯着金 价走势。打开手机财经软件，伦敦金现徘徊在4135美元/盎司左右，国内上海黄金T+D也涨到了945元/克 上下，周大福、老凤祥这些品牌金店的价格更是突破了1300元/克，水贝黄金现货都冲到了1022元/克。 更让人揪心的是，10月份金价刚创下4381美元/盎司的历史新高，转头就上演"过山车"，一周内暴跌近 500美元，现在又慢慢企稳回升，不少人都在问：这是不是要复刻历史上的牛市行情？其实答案就藏在 近期的政策、数据和市场动向里，现在的黄金市场，早就进入了多空博弈的风暴眼。 不过话说回来，黄金市场波动剧烈，10月份一周暴跌500美元的行情也提醒大家，投资黄金不能盲目追 涨。不管是买实物金还是黄金ETF，都要根据自己的风险承受能力理性布局。但从当前的政策、需求、 货币政策和技术面来看，黄金的重大拐点已经浮现，下周复刻历史行情的概率不小，这个风暴眼般的市 场，注定会吸引更多目光。 如果说新政是导火索，那实打实的需求就是金价的"压舱石"。世界黄金协会10月30日发布的三季 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the strategic transformation and structural opportunities in the gold industry amid escalating geopolitical conflicts, focusing on three main sectors: gold mining, jewelry consumption, and investment markets [1][2][3]. Gold Mining Sector - The gold mining sector shows a clear trend of "price increase and stable volume," with international gold prices rising by 39.21% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, and domestic Au99.99 gold prices increasing by 41.07% [1]. - Major mining companies reported net profit growth exceeding 50%, with Shandong Gold and Western Gold achieving the highest increases of 120.5% and 141.66%, respectively [1]. - Domestic gold production slightly decreased by 0.31% to 179.083 tons, indicating a shift from scale expansion to resource control [1]. - The implementation of the "High-Quality Development Implementation Plan for the Gold Industry (2025-2027)" aims for a resource increase of 5%-10% and breakthroughs in deep mining technology [1]. - Companies are building a "domestic stability + overseas expansion" dual circulation pattern, with overseas gold production increasing by 16.17% to 39.608 tons [1]. - Exploration investment surged, with gold exploration funding reaching 2.146 billion yuan, a 52.8% year-on-year increase, enhancing resource security [1]. Jewelry Consumption Sector - The jewelry sector faces a divergence between volume and price, with retail sales of gold and silver jewelry increasing by 11.3% year-on-year to 194.8 billion yuan, while gold consumption volume decreased by 3.54% [2]. - There is a significant structural differentiation: gold jewelry consumption fell by 26%, while gold bars and coins consumption grew by 23.69%, highlighting a shift from consumption to investment demand [2]. - High gold prices have led to a deeper segmentation of consumer preferences, with a focus on lightweight, well-designed, and high-value products [2]. - Brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lai Shen Tong Ling have achieved growth through product structure optimization, catering to younger consumers' demand for emotional value and cultural significance [2]. Investment Market - The financialization of the gold investment market is accelerating, with trading volumes on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and futures exchanges increasing by 56.46% and 149.17% year-on-year, respectively [2]. - Gold ETF holdings surged by 173.73% year-on-year, indicating a strong entry of institutional investors into the market [2]. - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for eight consecutive months, adding a total of 18.97 tons in the first half of 2025, underscoring gold's role as a stabilizing asset in the national financial security system [2]. - The internationalization of the gold market has made progress, with the launch of local settlement contracts on the Hong Kong International Board of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, promoting a global pricing system for RMB-denominated gold [2]. - Regulatory measures, such as the implementation of anti-money laundering and anti-terrorist financing management regulations for precious metals and gemstones, have strengthened market security [2]. Overall Industry Outlook - The Chinese gold industry demonstrated strong resilience in a complex environment during the first half of 2025 [3]. - Future trends include a shift in mining from production expansion to resource control and technological innovation, a focus on structural opportunities in the jewelry sector, and continued financialization and internationalization in the investment market [3]. - The industry is accelerating the construction of a modern industrial system with global competitiveness, further enhancing its strategic value and financial attributes [3].

Core Viewpoint - The buying logic for gold is undergoing a transformation, with a decline in consumer demand for jewelry and a simultaneous rise in investment and reserve demand [3][4]. Group 1: Consumer Demand Trends - The price of gold jewelry has surpassed 1300 RMB per gram, leading many consumers to hesitate or abandon purchases of traditional gold ornaments [3]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's gold jewelry consumption dropped by 32.50% year-on-year, contributing to an overall decline in gold consumption of 7.95% [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Demand Dynamics - Investment demand for gold bars, coins, and ETFs is increasing, contrasting with the decline in jewelry consumption [3]. - Central banks globally are significantly increasing their gold reserves, with China's central bank adding 3,000 ounces (approximately 1 ton) in October, marking the twelfth consecutive month of increases [4]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Influences - The shift in gold demand is driven by a profound restructuring of the global macro environment, including fluctuating U.S. monetary policy, increased dollar credit volatility, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts [4]. - The demand for gold as a sovereign risk-free asset is rising, with its strategic importance in national balance sheets increasing [4][5]. Group 4: Private Sector Investment Behavior - In the first three quarters, consumption of gold bars and coins in China increased by 24.55%, while gold ETFs benefited from tax exemptions, attracting significant investment [6]. - The introduction of differentiated VAT policies has accelerated the market's shift towards an investment-led structure [6]. Group 5: Supply-Side Developments - New discoveries in gold mining, such as the Dandong gold mine with an estimated resource of nearly 1,500 tons, are expected to enhance China's long-term resource security [6]. Group 6: Market Outlook - Despite a recent slight pullback in gold prices from a high of 4,100 USD per ounce, institutions maintain an optimistic outlook, with UBS setting a 12-month target of 4,200 USD per ounce [7]. - The assessment of gold's value is shifting from traditional metrics to a focus on central bank reserve changes, global open interest, and ETF flows [7].

Core Viewpoint - The gold jewelry market is experiencing a downturn despite soaring international gold prices, leading to a significant shift in consumer behavior towards investment gold products rather than jewelry [1][19]. Group 1: Market Trends - International gold prices have surpassed $4,200 per ounce, while domestic jewelry gold prices have reached a historical high of 1,200 yuan per gram, marking the strongest increase since 1979 [1][5]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's gold consumption totaled 682.730 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.95%, with gold jewelry consumption dropping by 32.50% to 270.036 tons [3]. - In contrast, the consumption of gold bars and coins reached 352.116 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.55% [3]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The rising gold prices have increased the cost of gold jewelry, with a 30-gram gold chain's price rising from 20,000 yuan in 2024 to over 30,000 yuan in 2025, while the growth rate of disposable income for residents was only 5.4% [6]. - Consumers are increasingly opting for lighter weight jewelry or directly purchasing investment gold bars due to the rising price barrier [6][19]. Group 3: Industry Response - Major brands are shifting from traditional per gram pricing to a "one-price" strategy, with brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Pu Gold increasing the proportion of one-price products [8]. - The recent tax policy changes may increase the tax burden on gold jewelry retailers, potentially leading to higher prices for consumers [10]. - Brands are innovating in product design, focusing on trends like "Guochao" (national trend) and traditional craftsmanship to attract consumers [12][13]. Group 4: Company Performance - Lao Pu Gold has reported a remarkable sales increase of 249% and a net profit growth of 291% in the first half of 2025, positioning itself as a luxury brand with a customer base similar to high-end brands like LV and Cartier [15]. - Despite the overall industry challenges, Lao Pu Gold has achieved significant success by targeting affluent consumers and adapting to market changes [15][19]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The gold jewelry sector may continue to face challenges from low consumer confidence and high gold prices, but seasonal improvements and potential policy support could provide some relief [17]. - The industry is expected to undergo further consolidation, which may suppress upstream demand while investment demand for gold bars and coins remains strong due to geopolitical and economic uncertainties [17][19].

来源：环球网 世界黄金协会分析观点认为，成本上升或使中国黄金珠宝需求面临阻力，然而在当下的市场环境中，这 也可能成为推动行业注重工艺、设计创新而非价格内卷竞争的又一契机。另外，金条与金币需求虽未受 政策直接冲击，但未来投资者可能会更集中地通过上海黄金交易所会员进行购买。值得关注的是，税收 上调将拉大黄金首饰的购入价与回购价之间的差距，这种价差扩大可能进而抑制黄金首饰的回收积极 性。 面对挑战，行业龙头已开始行动。周大福、潮宏基等品牌已通过调价传导成本压力。潮宏基方面表示， 新政长期利好，公司将更专注于产品设计创新与品牌塑造，通过高附加值产品吸引消费者。 广东省黄金协会副会长朱志刚建议，商家可通过调整产品结构、开发"小轻新"产品及推出以旧换新等模 式突围。 环球网记者走访水贝市场时，一片冷清。多数柜台无人问津，直播带货声也鲜少听见。商家普遍反映， 国际金价年内涨幅超50%，已让消费者望而却步，而税收新规的落地更是雪上加霜。根据财政部、国家 税务总局最新公告，黄金加工业务的增值税抵扣额度从此前的13%降至6%，实际税负增加约7%。这对 于以"薄利多销"和价格优势为生命线的水贝市场而言，无疑是沉重一击。新政前，水贝 ...

过去，说到"买金"，大众第一时间想到的就是买金镯子、金项链。在很长一段时间内，金饰消费都是国 内黄金消费市场的"主力军"。 这一固有格局，被今年以来金价的"破纪录"式上升所打破。中国黄金协会最新统计数据显示，今年前三 季度，我国黄金消费量682.73吨，同比下降7.95%。其中，黄金首饰270.036吨，同比下降32.50%；金条 及金币352.116吨，同比增长24.55%。这也意味着，"投资金"消费量30年来首次超越"首饰金"，开启了 黄金市场新格局。 伦敦现货黄金走势图 郭晨凯 制图 ◎记者 张骄 黄金消费市场正在发生一场结构性变革。中国黄金协会日前发布的报告显示，今年前三季度，黄金首饰 消费量为270.04吨，同比下降32.5%；代表投资需求的金条及金币消费量则为352.116吨，同比增长 24.55%。这标志着，"投资金"消费量30年来首次超越"首饰金"。 这与居高不下的金价密切相关。11月10日，伦敦现货黄金（下称"伦敦金"）收复4100美元/盎司关口。 次日，国际、国内黄金继续走高，伦敦金稳于4100美元/盎司上方；上海黄金交易所现货黄金 （Au99.99）涨至950.99元/克。 见微知著，黄 ...