近日，辉瑞宣布，拟斥资73亿美元收购减肥药物开发商Metsera。这一大手笔收购被普遍视为辉瑞重返 减肥药赛道的重要信号，但也引发了国内资本市场的连锁反应。A股市场上，多家减肥药概念股的股价 因此承压。 当辉瑞选择了Metsera而非中国企业时，外界不免追问：资本市场如今热炒的BD预期，能否真正兑现？ BD预期推动创新药行情 今年以来，国内不少A股、港股创新药企凭借潜在BD（商务拓展）预期被投资者追捧，股价节节攀 升。特别是一些被视作与跨国药企合作或被收购潜在标的的企业，其股价涨幅位居板块前列。 事实上，在此前辉瑞与三生制药的合作中，康方生物也曾受到过波及，成为BD预期落空的一大受害 者。在辉瑞最终选择三生制药之前，曾有投资者对辉瑞与康方生物海外合作方Summit更深入的合作甚 至收购抱有期待。资本市场上，三生制药与康方生物股价的此消彼长也印证了这一点。5月20日开盘， 港股康方生物的股价就震荡走低，盘中一度跌超5%，最终收报82.4港元/股，下跌1.38%。 据医药魔方披露的数据，全球医药交易数量从2015年的358笔增至2024年的743笔，年复合增长率为 8%，总交易金额从569亿美元跃升至1874亿美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global obesity crisis is escalating, with the World Health Organization predicting that the number of obese individuals will exceed 1 billion by 2024 and potentially reach 4 billion by 2035. This public health challenge is driving innovation in the development of weight-loss treatments, particularly amylin analogs, which may reshape the market for metabolic disease therapies worth billions of dollars [4]. Group 1: Discovery and Mechanism of Amylin - Amylin was discovered in 1987 by a research team at the University of Auckland, which identified a unique substance in pancreatic tissues of diabetic patients, leading to its naming as Islet Amyloid Polypeptide (IAPP) and later as Amylin. This discovery opened new avenues for understanding and treating metabolic diseases [6]. - Amylin, a neuroendocrine hormone composed of 37 amino acids, works alongside insulin to regulate various metabolic processes, including suppressing glucagon secretion, enhancing insulin sensitivity, and reducing appetite through central nervous system mechanisms. It also delays gastric emptying and promotes energy expenditure, contributing to weight loss [7]. Group 2: Development of Amylin Analog Drugs - The evolution of amylin analogs has progressed from short-acting to long-acting formulations. Pramlintide, the first synthetic amylin analog approved in 2005, faced limitations in clinical use due to side effects and inadequate efficacy, leading to early treatment discontinuation in about half of patients [8]. - Recent advancements include the long-acting amylin analogs, Cagrilintide and the combination product CagriSema, which have shown significant weight loss effects in clinical trials. Cagrilintide demonstrated a dose-dependent weight loss of 6% to 10.8%, outperforming placebo and showing comparable safety profiles to existing treatments [9]. Group 3: Innovations in Delivery Methods - The development of Amycretin, the first GLP-1/amylin dual receptor agonist, represents a breakthrough in drug delivery methods, utilizing an oral administration system that enhances intestinal absorption and bioavailability. Early clinical trials indicated an average weight loss of 13.1% in treated patients, highlighting its potential as a leading candidate in metabolic disease therapy [10]. - The trajectory of amylin analogs from short-acting to long-acting therapies and now to oral formulations illustrates significant progress in the treatment of metabolic diseases, offering patients more effective and convenient treatment options [11].