关注四大催化剂 出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 张贝贝 编辑 | 丁萍 头图 | 视觉中国 昔日的"药茅"恒瑞医药，已很久没有像样的行情了。 虽然2025年9月以来，对外授权的BD交易"祛魅"，创新药板块出现回调；但今年随着药企有高质量大额BD 交易落地，以及多家药企业绩预告扭亏或减亏，核心产品临床数据有积极进展等情况下，资本市场有所回 暖。 （妙投注：BD交易，指的是通过将自主研发的潜力项目授权给其他药企（主要是跨国药企），为企业带来 首付款、里程碑收入等，改善业绩预期） （资料来源：Choice数据） BD交易带动业绩高增 的逻辑，出现"裂痕" （资料来源：Choice数据） 然而，资本市场"暖风"却绕过了昔日的"药茅"。 当荣昌生物、歌礼制药等同行今年以来股价录得两位数涨幅时，恒瑞医药却走出了罕见的"十一连阴"，年 内涨跌幅陷负值区间。 那么，恒瑞医药，到底怎么了？资本市场暖风何时能吹到？ 自2024年起，BD交易成为恒瑞业绩增长的重要驱动因素，但因为相关收入确认节奏滞后，市场开始担忧 BD模式对业绩的拉动是否具备持续性，从而使BD交易逻辑出现松动。 凭 借 着 2023 年 10 月 一 起 BD 交 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the pharmaceutical industry as of February 1, 2026 [1] Core Insights - The competitiveness of China's active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) exports is supported by technological advancements, with a focus on supply variables [2] - Significant transactions in the industry highlight the ongoing validation of clinical data for innovative drugs, with multiple major deals occurring in early 2026 [3] - Leading companies are increasingly investing in the small nucleic acid field, which is expected to accelerate the development of the supporting industrial chain [4] - A new pricing system for GLP-1 drugs is forming domestically, while the oral GLP-1 market is rapidly expanding in the U.S. [5] - The market value of oral autoimmune drugs is gaining attention, with promising results from key clinical trials [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In 2025, China's pharmaceutical and healthcare product exports reached $111.34 billion, growing by 3.14%, with API exports accounting for $42.87 billion, representing 76.8% of total Western medicine exports [2] - The report notes a 10.6% decline in pharmaceutical exports to the U.S. due to tariff impacts, while the EU and emerging markets saw increases of 11.38% and 4.49%, respectively [2] Major Transactions and Innovations - In January 2026, a significant licensing agreement between CSPC Pharmaceutical and AstraZeneca was announced, involving a $1.2 billion upfront payment and potential milestone payments totaling up to $3.5 billion [3] - The report emphasizes the need for continuous clinical data validation for authorized products to secure future milestone payments [3] Small Nucleic Acid Developments - Leading companies like China Biologic Products are acquiring innovative firms in the small interfering RNA (siRNA) sector, indicating a strategic focus on this area [4] - The report highlights successful clinical trial results for small nucleic acid drugs, which are attracting more attention from major pharmaceutical companies [4] GLP-1 Market Dynamics - A new pricing structure for GLP-1 products is emerging in China, with the anticipated launch of generic versions expected to further influence market prices [5] - The report notes that oral GLP-1 drugs are gaining traction in the U.S., with significant prescription numbers reported shortly after launch [5] Oral Autoimmune Drug Developments - Takeda's new oral TYK2 inhibitor has shown positive results in key clinical trials for psoriasis, indicating a potential breakthrough in oral autoimmune treatments [6] - The report mentions ongoing developments in oral autoimmune drugs targeting various pathways, with several domestic companies advancing their clinical trials [6] Stock Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are likely to benefit from the API cycle reversal, such as Chuan Ning Biological and Guobang Pharmaceutical, and highlights the potential of small nucleic acid drugs and oral autoimmune treatments [8]

评级：中性(维持) 曹泽运(证券分析师) 李畅(证券分析师) S0350525110001 S0350524010004 caozy@ghzq.com.cn lic05@ghzq.com.cn 证券研究报告 2026年01月30日 医药生物 生物医药深度报告：国产ADC药物即将迎来高光时刻 ——ADC子行业专题研究 最近一年走势 相关报告 《医药生物行业动态研究：中国独立医学实验室行业的先行者（中性）*医药生 物*曹泽运，林羽茜》——2026-01-27 《医药生物行业动态研究：AI药研或引产业革命，JPM大会再推行业新峰（中 性）*医药生物*曹泽运，林羽茜》——2026-01-20 相对沪深300表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 医药生物 | 2.0% | -2.7% | 21.1% | | 沪深300 | 2.1% | 1.3% | 24.5% | 请务必阅读报告附注中的风险提示和免责声明 2 -9% 0% 9% 19% 28% 37% 2025/02/05 2025/05/06 2025/08/04 2025/11/02 医药生物 ...

Group 1 - The company Heng Rui Medicine (600276.SH) is scheduled to release its 2025 annual report on March 26, 2026 [1][6] - For Q4 2025, the expected revenue is projected to be between 32.072 billion to 36.062 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.6% to 28.9% [2][6] - The expected net profit for Q4 2025 is forecasted to be between 7.882 billion to 10.096 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 24.4% to 59.3% [2][6] Group 2 - In the first three quarters of 2025, Heng Rui Medicine achieved a revenue growth of 14.85% and a net profit growth of 24.50% [3][8] - The company has successfully controlled its expense ratio while improving both gross and net profit margins [8] - Significant achievements in external authorization collaborations include partnerships with GSK, Glenmark, and Braveheart_Bio, involving upfront payments totaling 583 million USD and potential milestone payments up to 14.116 billion USD [4][9] Group 3 - The company has made breakthroughs in its innovative drug pipeline, with multiple new drugs approved for clinical trials and market launch [4][9] - Notable products include China's first independently developed oral hypoglycemic combination drug [9] - The company’s third-quarter results showed revenue, net profit, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 23.188 billion, 5.751 billion, and 5.589 billion RMB respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.85%, 24.50%, and 21.08% [8][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The 2025 National Medical Insurance Negotiation results were announced, with 114 new drugs added to the medical insurance directory, achieving an overall success rate of 88%, the highest in nearly seven years, with a maximum price reduction of 94 [4][19] - The newly added drugs include monoclonal antibodies, bispecific antibodies, ADCs, siRNA, and small molecules, indicating a strong focus on innovative therapies [19][32] - The commercial insurance directory has added 19 innovative drugs, which, while not reimbursed by medical insurance, receive support for innovative drug applications, enhancing patient access and benefiting the innovative drug industry [5][24] Summary by Sections 1. National Medical Insurance Negotiation Results - The 2025 medical insurance directory added 114 new drugs, with a success rate of 88% and a maximum price reduction of 94% [4][13] - The total number of drugs in the national medical insurance directory reached 3,253, including 1,857 Western medicines and 1,396 traditional Chinese medicines [16][17] - The directory reflects a significant increase in the inclusion of innovative drugs, with 50 of the new additions classified as category 1 innovative drugs [19][21] 2. Commercial Insurance Directory - The commercial insurance directory added 19 innovative drugs, highlighting their clinical value and innovation [24][28] - The directory includes treatments for diseases such as Alzheimer's, rare diseases in children, and other critical conditions, showcasing a focus on addressing unmet medical needs [24][28] - The support for innovative drugs in the commercial insurance directory aims to fill gaps in patient coverage and enhance the overall healthcare system [25][28] 3. Market Performance - In the second week of December, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector declined by 1.04%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.96 percentage points [6][34] - The medical research outsourcing sector showed the highest increase, up by 3.69%, while offline pharmacy and medical circulation sectors experienced the largest declines [6][36] 4. Recommended Companies - The report continues to favor innovative drugs and their supply chain, recommending companies such as Sanofi, Innovent Biologics, and others for investment [7][32]

Core Insights - The 2025 National Medical Insurance Drug List has been officially released, adding 114 new drugs, including 50 innovative Class 1 drugs, with a negotiation success rate of 88%, the highest in seven years [1][3] - The first version of the commercial insurance innovative drug list has been introduced, featuring 5 CAR-T cell therapies and 19 high-priced innovative drugs, marking a significant expansion in coverage [1][5] - The adjustment reflects a strategic upgrade in China's medical insurance from "basic coverage" to "basic + high-end coverage," addressing the demand for accessible and affordable innovative drugs [1][9] Drug Additions and Market Impact - The new drug list includes 114 drugs, with 44% being Class 1 innovative drugs, and a total of 3,253 drugs now covered under the insurance [3] - Notable winners include Heng Rui Pharma, which secured 20 new drug approvals, and Eli Lilly, whose drug Tirzepatide has entered the Chinese market, benefiting 140 million diabetes patients [3][4] - The inclusion of CAR-T therapies in the commercial insurance list allows for reimbursement of high-cost treatments, which were previously inaccessible to many patients [5][7] Innovations in Treatment - The new list includes significant advancements in treatments for Alzheimer's disease, with two new drugs targeting amyloid beta accumulation, providing options for over 10 million patients in China [7] - The addition of 13 rare disease drugs fills coverage gaps in four rare disease areas, expanding the total number of rare disease drugs covered to approximately 100 [8] - The adjustment also emphasizes pediatric medications, with a separate review channel for children's formulations, indicating a positive shift in addressing children's healthcare needs [9] Strategic Implications - The 2025 adjustment signifies a shift towards a dual-track medical payment system in China, combining basic medical insurance with commercial insurance to meet both fundamental and advanced healthcare needs [9] - The rapid inclusion of innovative drugs into the insurance system reflects a decade of progress in China's pharmaceutical landscape, transitioning from rare domestic innovations to a robust pipeline of new therapies [9]

Group 1 - The new National Medical Insurance Drug List includes 114 new drugs, increasing the total number of drugs to 3,253, with 1,857 Western medicines and 1,396 traditional Chinese medicines [1] - The inclusion of 50 innovative drugs marks a historical high, featuring several "global first" and "first domestic" products, enhancing access to breakthrough therapies for patients [1] - Notable multinational pharmaceutical companies like Novartis and Johnson & Johnson have successfully included multiple new products and indications in the updated insurance list, benefiting a large number of patients [1][2] Group 2 - Domestic pharmaceutical company Heng Rui has 11 anti-tumor products included in the new insurance list, showcasing significant innovations and new indications [2] - Innovative drugs filling gaps in basic medical insurance coverage include Sanofi's anti-CD38 monoclonal antibody and Hansoh Pharmaceutical's third-generation EGFR-targeted drug, both of which offer new treatment standards for critical diseases [3] - Since the establishment of the National Medical Insurance Bureau in 2018, a total of 949 new drugs have been added to the insurance list, significantly boosting the pharmaceutical market and enhancing the clinical medication level in China [4]

Core Insights - The new National Medical Insurance Directory has added 114 new drugs, surpassing last year's addition of 91, with 50 being first-class innovative drugs, achieving an overall success rate of 88%, an improvement from 76% in 2024 [1][2] Group 1: New Drug Additions - The total number of drugs in the directory has increased to 3,253, significantly enhancing coverage for key areas such as oncology and chronic diseases [2] - The directory includes 38 global innovative drugs and 50 first-class innovative drugs, marking a historical high for new additions [2] - Notable inclusions are the first globally approved red blood cell maturation agent, Rotecip, for treating lower-risk myelodysplastic syndromes, and the first domestically developed IL-4Rα antibody drug, Kangyueda, for multiple indications [3][4] Group 2: Oncology Innovations - Several innovative oncology drugs have been added, including Tagolizumab, the first PD-L1 monoclonal antibody approved for nasopharyngeal carcinoma, and non-covalent BTK inhibitor, Jebatib, for relapsed mantle cell lymphoma [4][5][6] - ADCs (antibody-drug conjugates) have gained attention, with new entries like Lukanasatuzumab and Ruikangquzuzumab, targeting advanced breast cancer and non-small cell lung cancer [7][8] Group 3: Chronic Disease Treatments - The directory has included innovative drugs for chronic diseases, such as Novartis' PCSK9 mRNA interference drug for cholesterol management, addressing patients who cannot reach LDL-C targets [14] - AstraZeneca's biologic drug Benralizumab for severe eosinophilic asthma has also been added, providing targeted treatment options for patients [15][16] Group 4: Influenza Treatments - The new directory has incorporated two domestic antiviral drugs for influenza, Masurashave and Angladiv, which have shown promising clinical results in reducing symptoms and viral load [17]

恒瑞医药 20251205 摘要 恒瑞医药坚持创新和国际化双轮驱动战略，聚焦肿瘤、代谢、心血管、 自免及退行性疾病等领域，通过技术创新和"借船出海"策略拓展国际 市场，自 2023 年以来已达成 12 笔对外许可交易，总金额近 280 亿美 元。 公司通过建立和迭代细胞治疗、核酸药物、基因治疗及蛋白降解剂等新 兴技术平台，并注重创新模块的基本功，组合成差异化的治疗方案，例 如在代谢领域开发 PCSK9 抑制剂和长效小分子疗法。 恒瑞医药在肿瘤治疗领域构建四位一体的协同创新疗法，包括免疫治疗 （PD-1、细胞因子、细胞治疗）、靶向化疗（ADC、多肽-核素连接）、 支持治疗和精准治疗（KRAS 抑制剂），并探索融合不同技术平台以实 现更高效的肿瘤免疫反应。 在代谢疾病领域，恒瑞已有多个糖尿病口服产品上市，并计划于 2026 年推出减重药 9,531，该产品临床数据显示出良好的疗效和安全性，公 司正致力于解决现有减重药的副作用和依从性问题，并研究新型给药方 式。 Q&A 恒瑞医药未来的发展战略是什么？ 恒瑞医药近年来在研发投入和国际化方面取得了哪些成就？ 截至目前，恒瑞医药累计投入研发费用已超过 500 亿人民币， ...

Core Insights - The National Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA) has officially announced the latest version of the National Basic Medical Insurance, Maternity Insurance, and Work Injury Insurance Drug Catalog, which includes 114 new drugs and 19 drugs in the first version of the Commercial Health Insurance Innovative Drug Catalog, effective from January 1, 2026 [1][2][3] Industry Summary - The NHSA has adjusted the drug catalog for the eighth time since its establishment, with a total of 949 new drugs added over the years, and the medical insurance fund has spent over 4.6 trillion RMB on negotiated drugs, driving sales exceeding 6 trillion RMB [1][2] - The new catalog includes 50 first-class innovative drugs, with an overall success rate of 88%, significantly higher than the 76% in 2024 [3] - The inclusion of drugs for major diseases such as triple-negative breast cancer, pancreatic cancer, and lung cancer, as well as rare diseases and chronic conditions, addresses gaps in basic medical insurance coverage [2][3] Company-Specific Updates - Green Leaf Pharmaceutical has successfully included five new products in the NHSA's drug catalog, including MiMeiXin® and ZhanBiJia® [4] - Fuhong Hanlin announced that its product Fuzhuoning® has been included in the NHSA's drug catalog for specific indications [5] - Junshi Biosciences reported that its products Tuoyi® and Junshida® have been successfully included in the NHSA's drug catalog [6] - Innovent Biologics has successfully added seven innovative products to the new NHSA drug catalog, including Daboru® and Xindimian® [6]