预测公司Q4一致预期营业收入320.72~360.62亿元，同比增长14.6%~28.9%； 预测公司Q4一致预期净利润78.82~100.96亿元，同比增长24.4%~59.3%。 关注后续财报数据披露后能否超预期，朝阳永续A股季度业绩前瞻数据将为投资者提供业绩鉴定。 1. 最近拟披露财报发布日 恒瑞医药（600276.SH）将于2026年3月26日公布2025年年报。 2. 恒瑞医药全年业绩预期怎么样？ 截至2025年12月26日，根据朝阳永续季度业绩前瞻数据： | 货币单位:亿元人民币 | | | | | | 关注朝阳永续公众号 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 机构简称 | | 预测营业收入 | 同比 | 预测净利润 | 同比 | 预测扣非净利润 | 同比 | | 卖方预测区间 | | 320.72~360.62 | 14.6%~28.9% | 78.82~100.96 | 24.4%~59.3% | - | - | | 平均数 | -- | 336.14 | 20.1% | 89.47 | 41.2% | -- | - | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The 2025 National Medical Insurance Negotiation results were announced, with 114 new drugs added to the medical insurance directory, achieving an overall success rate of 88%, the highest in nearly seven years, with a maximum price reduction of 94 [4][19] - The newly added drugs include monoclonal antibodies, bispecific antibodies, ADCs, siRNA, and small molecules, indicating a strong focus on innovative therapies [19][32] - The commercial insurance directory has added 19 innovative drugs, which, while not reimbursed by medical insurance, receive support for innovative drug applications, enhancing patient access and benefiting the innovative drug industry [5][24] Summary by Sections 1. National Medical Insurance Negotiation Results - The 2025 medical insurance directory added 114 new drugs, with a success rate of 88% and a maximum price reduction of 94% [4][13] - The total number of drugs in the national medical insurance directory reached 3,253, including 1,857 Western medicines and 1,396 traditional Chinese medicines [16][17] - The directory reflects a significant increase in the inclusion of innovative drugs, with 50 of the new additions classified as category 1 innovative drugs [19][21] 2. Commercial Insurance Directory - The commercial insurance directory added 19 innovative drugs, highlighting their clinical value and innovation [24][28] - The directory includes treatments for diseases such as Alzheimer's, rare diseases in children, and other critical conditions, showcasing a focus on addressing unmet medical needs [24][28] - The support for innovative drugs in the commercial insurance directory aims to fill gaps in patient coverage and enhance the overall healthcare system [25][28] 3. Market Performance - In the second week of December, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector declined by 1.04%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.96 percentage points [6][34] - The medical research outsourcing sector showed the highest increase, up by 3.69%, while offline pharmacy and medical circulation sectors experienced the largest declines [6][36] 4. Recommended Companies - The report continues to favor innovative drugs and their supply chain, recommending companies such as Sanofi, Innovent Biologics, and others for investment [7][32]

Core Insights - The 2025 National Medical Insurance Drug List has been officially released, adding 114 new drugs, including 50 innovative Class 1 drugs, with a negotiation success rate of 88%, the highest in seven years [1][3] - The first version of the commercial insurance innovative drug list has been introduced, featuring 5 CAR-T cell therapies and 19 high-priced innovative drugs, marking a significant expansion in coverage [1][5] - The adjustment reflects a strategic upgrade in China's medical insurance from "basic coverage" to "basic + high-end coverage," addressing the demand for accessible and affordable innovative drugs [1][9] Drug Additions and Market Impact - The new drug list includes 114 drugs, with 44% being Class 1 innovative drugs, and a total of 3,253 drugs now covered under the insurance [3] - Notable winners include Heng Rui Pharma, which secured 20 new drug approvals, and Eli Lilly, whose drug Tirzepatide has entered the Chinese market, benefiting 140 million diabetes patients [3][4] - The inclusion of CAR-T therapies in the commercial insurance list allows for reimbursement of high-cost treatments, which were previously inaccessible to many patients [5][7] Innovations in Treatment - The new list includes significant advancements in treatments for Alzheimer's disease, with two new drugs targeting amyloid beta accumulation, providing options for over 10 million patients in China [7] - The addition of 13 rare disease drugs fills coverage gaps in four rare disease areas, expanding the total number of rare disease drugs covered to approximately 100 [8] - The adjustment also emphasizes pediatric medications, with a separate review channel for children's formulations, indicating a positive shift in addressing children's healthcare needs [9] Strategic Implications - The 2025 adjustment signifies a shift towards a dual-track medical payment system in China, combining basic medical insurance with commercial insurance to meet both fundamental and advanced healthcare needs [9] - The rapid inclusion of innovative drugs into the insurance system reflects a decade of progress in China's pharmaceutical landscape, transitioning from rare domestic innovations to a robust pipeline of new therapies [9]

Group 1 - The new National Medical Insurance Drug List includes 114 new drugs, increasing the total number of drugs to 3,253, with 1,857 Western medicines and 1,396 traditional Chinese medicines [1] - The inclusion of 50 innovative drugs marks a historical high, featuring several "global first" and "first domestic" products, enhancing access to breakthrough therapies for patients [1] - Notable multinational pharmaceutical companies like Novartis and Johnson & Johnson have successfully included multiple new products and indications in the updated insurance list, benefiting a large number of patients [1][2] Group 2 - Domestic pharmaceutical company Heng Rui has 11 anti-tumor products included in the new insurance list, showcasing significant innovations and new indications [2] - Innovative drugs filling gaps in basic medical insurance coverage include Sanofi's anti-CD38 monoclonal antibody and Hansoh Pharmaceutical's third-generation EGFR-targeted drug, both of which offer new treatment standards for critical diseases [3] - Since the establishment of the National Medical Insurance Bureau in 2018, a total of 949 new drugs have been added to the insurance list, significantly boosting the pharmaceutical market and enhancing the clinical medication level in China [4]

Core Insights - The new National Medical Insurance Directory has added 114 new drugs, surpassing last year's addition of 91, with 50 being first-class innovative drugs, achieving an overall success rate of 88%, an improvement from 76% in 2024 [1][2] Group 1: New Drug Additions - The total number of drugs in the directory has increased to 3,253, significantly enhancing coverage for key areas such as oncology and chronic diseases [2] - The directory includes 38 global innovative drugs and 50 first-class innovative drugs, marking a historical high for new additions [2] - Notable inclusions are the first globally approved red blood cell maturation agent, Rotecip, for treating lower-risk myelodysplastic syndromes, and the first domestically developed IL-4Rα antibody drug, Kangyueda, for multiple indications [3][4] Group 2: Oncology Innovations - Several innovative oncology drugs have been added, including Tagolizumab, the first PD-L1 monoclonal antibody approved for nasopharyngeal carcinoma, and non-covalent BTK inhibitor, Jebatib, for relapsed mantle cell lymphoma [4][5][6] - ADCs (antibody-drug conjugates) have gained attention, with new entries like Lukanasatuzumab and Ruikangquzuzumab, targeting advanced breast cancer and non-small cell lung cancer [7][8] Group 3: Chronic Disease Treatments - The directory has included innovative drugs for chronic diseases, such as Novartis' PCSK9 mRNA interference drug for cholesterol management, addressing patients who cannot reach LDL-C targets [14] - AstraZeneca's biologic drug Benralizumab for severe eosinophilic asthma has also been added, providing targeted treatment options for patients [15][16] Group 4: Influenza Treatments - The new directory has incorporated two domestic antiviral drugs for influenza, Masurashave and Angladiv, which have shown promising clinical results in reducing symptoms and viral load [17]

恒瑞医药 20251205 摘要 恒瑞医药坚持创新和国际化双轮驱动战略，聚焦肿瘤、代谢、心血管、 自免及退行性疾病等领域，通过技术创新和"借船出海"策略拓展国际 市场，自 2023 年以来已达成 12 笔对外许可交易，总金额近 280 亿美 元。 公司通过建立和迭代细胞治疗、核酸药物、基因治疗及蛋白降解剂等新 兴技术平台，并注重创新模块的基本功，组合成差异化的治疗方案，例 如在代谢领域开发 PCSK9 抑制剂和长效小分子疗法。 恒瑞医药在肿瘤治疗领域构建四位一体的协同创新疗法，包括免疫治疗 （PD-1、细胞因子、细胞治疗）、靶向化疗（ADC、多肽-核素连接）、 支持治疗和精准治疗（KRAS 抑制剂），并探索融合不同技术平台以实 现更高效的肿瘤免疫反应。 在代谢疾病领域，恒瑞已有多个糖尿病口服产品上市，并计划于 2026 年推出减重药 9,531，该产品临床数据显示出良好的疗效和安全性，公 司正致力于解决现有减重药的副作用和依从性问题，并研究新型给药方 式。 Q&A 恒瑞医药未来的发展战略是什么？ 恒瑞医药近年来在研发投入和国际化方面取得了哪些成就？ 截至目前，恒瑞医药累计投入研发费用已超过 500 亿人民币， ...

Core Insights - The National Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA) has officially announced the latest version of the National Basic Medical Insurance, Maternity Insurance, and Work Injury Insurance Drug Catalog, which includes 114 new drugs and 19 drugs in the first version of the Commercial Health Insurance Innovative Drug Catalog, effective from January 1, 2026 [1][2][3] Industry Summary - The NHSA has adjusted the drug catalog for the eighth time since its establishment, with a total of 949 new drugs added over the years, and the medical insurance fund has spent over 4.6 trillion RMB on negotiated drugs, driving sales exceeding 6 trillion RMB [1][2] - The new catalog includes 50 first-class innovative drugs, with an overall success rate of 88%, significantly higher than the 76% in 2024 [3] - The inclusion of drugs for major diseases such as triple-negative breast cancer, pancreatic cancer, and lung cancer, as well as rare diseases and chronic conditions, addresses gaps in basic medical insurance coverage [2][3] Company-Specific Updates - Green Leaf Pharmaceutical has successfully included five new products in the NHSA's drug catalog, including MiMeiXin® and ZhanBiJia® [4] - Fuhong Hanlin announced that its product Fuzhuoning® has been included in the NHSA's drug catalog for specific indications [5] - Junshi Biosciences reported that its products Tuoyi® and Junshida® have been successfully included in the NHSA's drug catalog [6] - Innovent Biologics has successfully added seven innovative products to the new NHSA drug catalog, including Daboru® and Xindimian® [6]

Core Insights - The Chinese innovative drug sector is experiencing strong growth driven by accelerated new drug approvals and increased business development (BD) activities [1][13] - In the first half of 2025, the total transaction amount in China reached $60.8 billion, a significant year-on-year increase of 129%, while the cumulative transaction amount for the first three quarters reached $93.7 billion, up 64% year-on-year [1][13] - The commercialization of innovative drugs is boosting overall revenue recovery and improving corporate profitability, indicating a transition to a new phase of high-quality development in the industry [1][13] Company Performance Highlights 1. BeiGene - In Q3 2025, BeiGene's revenue exceeded 10 billion yuan for the first time, with a year-on-year growth of 41.1%, and adjusted net profit increased by 489% [2][14] - The gross margin for global product revenue under GAAP was 85.9%, up 3.1 percentage points from the same period in 2024, primarily due to increased sales of Zanubrutinib [2][14] 2. HengRui Medicine - HengRui Medicine achieved revenue of 7.427 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.72%, with net profit growing by 9.53% [4][15] - The company has made significant strides in international BD transactions, with over $800 million in upfront payments from innovative drug licensing agreements in the first three quarters of the year [5][15] 3. WuXi AppTec - WuXi AppTec reported total revenue of 12.057 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.26%, with net profit rising by 53.27% [6][17] - The company has adjusted its full-year revenue guidance upward, expecting sustained double-digit growth in its core business [7][17] Industry Future Trends - The Chinese innovative drug industry is undergoing a paradigm shift from "domestic substitution" to "global value creation" and "international ecological collaboration," marking the entry into an international 2.0 era [8][18] - The focus on internationalization is becoming more pronounced, with strategic collaborations extending beyond late-stage assets to include early-stage technology platforms [8][18] Strategic Recommendations for Companies - Companies should build globally-oriented differentiated R&D pipelines, shifting focus from filling domestic gaps to addressing unmet clinical needs globally [9][19] - Developing dual-capacity international BD capabilities is essential, treating international expansion as a core strategic capability rather than a one-time transaction [10][20] - Establishing a lean and efficient global operational system is crucial for maintaining cost and efficiency advantages in the competitive international market [10][20]

Core Viewpoint - Heng Rui Medicine (1276.HK) experienced a significant stock price increase, rising approximately 7% to HKD 69.6, with a total market capitalization of HKD 461.9 billion, following the announcement of multiple drug clinical trial approvals by the National Medical Products Administration [1] Group 1: Drug Approvals - The company and its subsidiaries received approval for clinical trials for several drugs, including SHR-9839, SHR-A2009, SHR-1826, HRS-4642 injection, Adalimumab injection, Trastuzumab, SHR-A2102, and HRS-7058 capsules and tablets [1] - The approval of nine drugs (excluding SHR-1139) in a single announcement highlights the company's strong research and development efficiency and a rich product pipeline, which are core components of its long-term competitiveness [1]

Market Review - The A-share market experienced a style switch with a mixed index performance, as technology stocks led the decline while small-cap stocks showed active performance. The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 4000 points before retreating, with an average daily trading volume of 2.33 trillion yuan, up from 1.80 trillion yuan the previous week [4][5]. Hard Technology - The global semiconductor expansion driven by AI continues, with Q2 2025 global semiconductor equipment sales reaching 33.1 billion USD, a 23% year-on-year increase. In September, Japan's semiconductor equipment sales reached 424.6 billion yen, up 14.9% year-on-year [14][15]. - Domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers saw significant revenue growth in Q3 2025, with an average year-on-year increase of 35%. This reflects strong order fulfillment from last year's orders and progress in downstream wafer fabs [25][26]. Healthcare - Chinese innovative drug companies showcased significant achievements at the 2025 ESMO conference, with 33 companies presenting research results and 35 studies selected for oral presentations. Chinese companies accounted for 15.3% of the total abstracts presented [28][29]. - The value of patent licensing transactions for Chinese innovative drugs exceeded 100.7 billion USD in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a 170% year-on-year increase, indicating accelerated globalization of Chinese innovative drugs [32][33]. High-end Manufacturing - The tungsten price has significantly increased, reflecting supply-side policy tightening and recovering downstream demand. The average price of domestic black tungsten concentrate reached 299,000 yuan per ton, up 109.8% from the beginning of the year [38][39]. - The excavator industry in China has shown a continuous recovery, with sales reaching 174,000 units in the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%. Both domestic and export markets experienced double-digit growth [42][43]. Consumer Sector - Cross-border e-commerce has emerged as a new highlight in China's foreign trade, with a rich midstream ecosystem involving merchants, platforms, and service providers. The development is driven by domestic "push" factors and overseas "pull" factors, leading to a comprehensive export era for platforms, factories, and sellers [5][6].