野村发布研报称，恒瑞保留了瑞康曲妥珠单抗在大中华区、美国、加拿大、欧洲及日本等多个主要医药 市场的开发及商业化权利，预期今次首付款金额对公司财务影响不大，但整体里程碑付款规模或可观， 相信与Glenmark的授权合作将有助释放产品商业潜力，预期保留多个主要市场权利为未来与其他潜在伙 伴达成更大规模合作提供空间。 消息面上，恒瑞医药公告称，SHR-7787 注射液、SHR-4849 注射液、贝伐珠单抗注射液、阿得贝利单 抗注射液获批开展临床试验。此外，公司近日向印度制药公司Glenmark授予其HER2抗体药物偶联物瑞 康曲妥珠单抗在全球非核心市场的开发及商业化的独家权利有偿许可，获得1800万美元首付款及逾10亿 美元潜在里程碑款。 智通财经APP获悉，恒瑞医药(01276)尾盘涨超4%，截至发稿，涨3.71%，报87.95港元，成交额2.17亿港 元。 ...

消息面上，恒瑞医药公告称，SHR-7787注射液、SHR-4849注射液、贝伐珠单抗注射液、阿得贝利单抗 注射液获批开展临床试验。此外，公司近日向印度制药公司Glenmark授予其HER2抗体药物偶联物瑞康 曲妥珠单抗在全球非核心市场的开发及商业化的独家权利有偿许可，获得1800万美元首付款及逾10亿美 元潜在里程碑款。 恒瑞医药（600276）(01276)尾盘涨超4%，截至发稿，涨3.71%，报87.95港元，成交额2.17亿港元。 野村发布研报称，恒瑞保留了瑞康曲妥珠单抗在大中华区、美国、加拿大、欧洲及日本等多个主要医药 市场的开发及商业化权利，预期今次首付款金额对公司财务影响不大，但整体里程碑付款规模或可观， 相信与Glenmark的授权合作将有助释放产品商业潜力，预期保留多个主要市场权利为未来与其他潜在伙 伴达成更大规模合作提供空间。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [5]. Core Viewpoints - The acquisition of Metsera by Pfizer, valued at approximately $4.9 billion, underscores the significant potential and long-term growth prospects of the weight loss drug market, particularly in the GLP-1 segment [2][24]. - The report emphasizes the urgent demand for next-generation therapies, such as oral formulations and multi-target drugs, indicating a competitive landscape in the global GLP-1 research race [2][24]. - The Chinese weight loss drug industry is poised for growth, with a focus on companies that demonstrate strong sales execution and advanced research capabilities [3][24]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology index fell by 2.20%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.27 percentage points, ranking 24th among 31 sub-industries [1][16]. Key Company Insights - Companies to watch include Innovent Biologics (H), Heng Rui Medicine, Borui Medicine, Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical, Nawei Technology, WuXi AppTec (A+H), and Kelaiying (A+H) as they are expected to benefit from the expanding GLP-1 industry chain [3][24]. Annual Investment Strategy - The report suggests a structural selection of investment opportunities based on payment willingness and ability, focusing on three payment channels: hospital payments, out-of-pocket payments, and overseas payments [25]. - Key areas of interest include hospital policy support for innovative drugs and devices, expanding public demand for blood products, home medical devices, and the weight loss drug industry chain [25]. Company Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies, indicating a "Buy" rating for WuXi AppTec and Innovent Biologics, and an "Overweight" rating for Heng Rui Medicine [4]. Market Trends - The global weight loss drug market is experiencing rapid growth, with Pfizer's acquisition of Metsera highlighting the increasing market space associated with obesity-related health issues [28]. - The report notes that the commercialization of domestic weight loss drugs will hinge on sales capabilities and research advancements [3][24]. Important Company Announcements - Recent announcements include clinical trial updates and new drug applications from various companies, indicating ongoing innovation and development within the sector [27]. Financial Data - The basic medical insurance income for the first seven months of 2025 reached 1,684.7 billion yuan, with expenditures amounting to 1,369.7 billion yuan, reflecting the financial landscape impacting the pharmaceutical industry [30]. Price Trends - The report notes a decline in antibiotic prices and stability in cardiovascular raw material drug prices, which may influence the cost structure for pharmaceutical companies [36][43]. Conclusion - The report presents a positive outlook for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector, particularly in the weight loss drug market, driven by significant acquisitions and a growing demand for innovative therapies [2][24].

崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.09.29） 宏观及策略研究 选择相信政策的力量——2025 年第四季度宏观经济季报 固定收益研究 收益率曲线再度上行——利率债周报 行业研究 第十一批集采公告发布，规则持续优化——医药生物行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨会纪要（2025/09/29） 编辑人 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 晨会纪要（2025/09/29） 宏观及策略研究 选择相信政策的力量——2025 年第四季度宏观经济季报 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、海外经济及政策环境 从 Jackson Hole 会议上鲍威尔放风，到 9 月议息会议降息落地，再到近期官员讲话暗示未来降息或仍需考量， 归 ...

Core Viewpoint - The surge in A-share and Hong Kong stock prices of innovative drug companies is driven by potential business development (BD) expectations, particularly for those seen as acquisition targets by multinational pharmaceutical companies [2][3] Group 1: Business Development Trends - Pfizer's recent $7.3 billion acquisition of Metsera signals a significant return to the weight-loss drug market, impacting domestic stock prices of related companies [2] - Global pharmaceutical transactions have increased from 358 in 2015 to 743 in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 8%, while China's transactions surged from 55 to 213, with total values rising from $3.1 billion to $57.1 billion [3] - Major Chinese companies like 3SBio, CSPC, and Hengrui have secured BD deals exceeding $5 billion this year, with Hengrui's $12.5 billion agreement with GSK setting a record for Chinese innovative drug exports [3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior - Investors are becoming more discerning, focusing on the specifics of BD deals, such as upfront payment ratios and the long-term capabilities of partners, rather than merely the announcement of negotiations [4] - There is a growing concern that many top buyers have already completed their acquisitions, leading to potential valuation declines and tougher negotiations for remaining assets [4][5] - Past instances show that underwhelming BD deals can lead to significant stock price declines, as seen with Rongchang Bio and Hengrui [5] Group 3: Future Opportunities and Market Dynamics - Despite concerns about a potential slowdown in BD activity, industry leaders assert that opportunities continue to emerge, particularly as multinational companies adjust their R&D strategies every 5 to 10 years [7] - The demand for innovative assets remains strong, with a shift towards ADCs and bispecific antibodies, indicating a recognition of Chinese companies' R&D capabilities [8][9] - The trend of multinational companies seeking earlier-stage projects reflects a strategic shift towards building comprehensive product portfolios, as seen in Pfizer's acquisition of Metsera, which enhances its offerings in the GLP-1 space [9]

近日，辉瑞宣布，拟斥资73亿美元收购减肥药物开发商Metsera。这一大手笔收购被普遍视为辉瑞重返 减肥药赛道的重要信号，但也引发了国内资本市场的连锁反应。A股市场上，多家减肥药概念股的股价 因此承压。 当辉瑞选择了Metsera而非中国企业时，外界不免追问：资本市场如今热炒的BD预期，能否真正兑现？ BD预期推动创新药行情 今年以来，国内不少A股、港股创新药企凭借潜在BD（商务拓展）预期被投资者追捧，股价节节攀 升。特别是一些被视作与跨国药企合作或被收购潜在标的的企业，其股价涨幅位居板块前列。 事实上，在此前辉瑞与三生制药的合作中，康方生物也曾受到过波及，成为BD预期落空的一大受害 者。在辉瑞最终选择三生制药之前，曾有投资者对辉瑞与康方生物海外合作方Summit更深入的合作甚 至收购抱有期待。资本市场上，三生制药与康方生物股价的此消彼长也印证了这一点。5月20日开盘， 港股康方生物的股价就震荡走低，盘中一度跌超5%，最终收报82.4港元/股，下跌1.38%。 据医药魔方披露的数据，全球医药交易数量从2015年的358笔增至2024年的743笔，年复合增长率为 8%，总交易金额从569亿美元跃升至1874亿美 ...

业内人士普遍认为，从长期看，海外不确定性因素增加给医药板块投资带来不确定性。 这是恒瑞医药年内的第五笔BD交易，带动公司年内达成的BD交易首付款累计超过8亿美元。除恒瑞之外，今年上半年，国内License-out（对外授权，BD 交易的一种）交易共计72笔，首付款总额达到26亿美元，总金额高达600亿美元，超过2024年全年交易的总金额。"BD交易的火热，反映出国内医药产业 研发水平近年来持续提升，日益得到国际先进认可。"信达生物董事会主席、首席执行官俞德超说。 火热的BD交易，带动龙头药企经营业绩改善。今年上半年，恒瑞医药实现营收157.61亿元，同比增15.88%，百济神州实现营收175.18亿元，同比增 46.03%，中国生物制药实现营收175.7亿元，同比增长10.7%……记者以申万行业分类（2021版）搜索发现，在499家医药生物企业中，上半年营业收入同 比增长的有230家，较2024年同期减少了24家，但从净利润角度看，上半年同比增加的有236家，占比达47.3%，较2024年同期提升2.8个百分点。 值得一提的是，今年以来，包括《支持创新药高质量发展的若干措施》等一系列政策的出台，增强了市场信心 ...

行 行业周报 业 第十一批集采公告发布，规则持续优化 | 研 | | | | | ——医药生物行业周报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 究 | 分析师： | 侯雅楠 | S1150524120001 年 2025 09 | SAC NO： | | 月 | 日 | | 26 | | | 医药生物 | | 投资要点： | | | | | | | | | 证券分析师 |  | 行业要闻 | | | | | | | | | 侯雅楠 | | | | | | | | | | | houyn@bhzq.com | | （1）国家组织药品联合采购办公室关于发布《全国药品集中采购文件 | | | | | | | | | 022-23839211 | | （GY-YD2025-1）》的公告； | | | | | | | | | 研子行究业助理评级 | | 三抗启动 期临床； （2）泽璟制药 III | CD3/DLL3 | | | | | | | | 中药Ⅱ | 看好 | （3）帕博利珠单抗皮下注射剂型获批上市； ...

Group 1: 康恩贝 - The company aims to acquire potential large products that align with its strategic direction, with ongoing discussions for relevant targets [1] - The acquisition strategy considers strategic fit, revenue and profit potential, growth opportunities, and compatibility with existing treatment areas and marketing channels [1] - The company has strengthened its business development (BD) system, with a recently approved modified new drug for throat relief as an example of a more efficient and asset-light "acquisition" [1] Group 2: 甘李药业 - The company signed a technology transfer and supply agreement with Fundação Oswaldo Cruz-Bio-Manguinhos and BIOMM for the production of insulin in Brazil [2] - The total amount of the supply framework agreement is expected to be no less than 3 billion RMB, with actual order amounts to be determined [2] - The agreement includes technology transfer for insulin and commitments for future procurement by FZ over the next 10 years [2] Group 3: 天目药业 - The company is focused on the inheritance and innovation of traditional Chinese medicine, accelerating the resumption of production for quality products like pearl eye drops [3] - It has made significant progress in drug re-registration, with 53 drugs receiving approval notifications since the beginning of 2025, surpassing the total for 2024 [3] - The company is leveraging existing product advantages to launch new products to meet diverse consumer needs [3] Group 4: 济民健康 - The company plans to enhance cooperation and increase investment in innovative drug research, aiming to establish Boao International Hospital as a high-level clinical research center [4] - The company holds a 51% stake in Boao International Hospital, with various stakeholders involved in the remaining shares [4] Group 5: 恒瑞医药 - The company signed a licensing agreement with Glenmark Specialty for its innovative drug SHR-A1811, with potential earnings exceeding 1.1 billion USD [5][6] - The drug targets HER2 and is designed to induce apoptosis in tumor cells, enhancing anti-tumor efficacy [5] - Glenmark Specialty will pay an upfront fee of 18 million USD and is eligible for milestone payments based on registration and sales [6] Group 6: 华熙生物 - The company’s strategic investment in Sanofi Pharmaceuticals is aimed at enhancing its presence in the biopharmaceutical sector [7] - The investment allows for collaboration in the development of small nucleic acid innovative drugs, creating synergies across its main business areas [7] - The company is exploring the role of hyaluronic acid and other substances in advanced medical research and applications [7]

Core Viewpoint - The innovative drug sector experienced significant volatility due to tariff news, with the Hang Seng Pharmaceutical ETF (159892) dropping over 2% [1] Group 1: Market Impact - Major holdings such as MicroPort Medical, MicroPort Robotics, and others led the decline, while companies like 3SBio, Alibaba Health, and Zai Lab also saw notable drops [1] - The recent announcement of an overseas exclusive development and commercialization licensing agreement for Ruilong's Trastuzumab, valued at over $1.1 billion, highlights the growing international collaboration in the innovative drug sector [1] Group 2: Long-term Outlook - Since 2025, there has been a surge in large-scale overseas business development deals in the innovative drug sector, indicating increasing global recognition of China's innovative drug capabilities [1] - Leading companies are actively seeking partnerships with top global pharmaceutical firms to expedite the translation of research outcomes into marketable products [1] - While short-term export prospects may be affected by tariff changes, the long-term outlook remains strong due to technological advancements, a shift away from internal competition in the pharmaceutical industry, and breakthroughs in AI-driven drug development [1]