Core Insights - The article highlights the rapid growth of the trendy toy sector, driven by the consumption power of Generation Z and the evolving consumption structure, with TOP TOY emerging as a significant player in this market [1][2]. Company Overview - TOP TOY, established in 2020 and incubated by Miniso, focuses on selling licensed IP toys, proprietary IP toys, and third-party brand toys, covering various categories such as blind boxes, building blocks, figurines, and dolls [2]. - The company has shown impressive financial performance, with revenue increasing from 679 million RMB in 2022 to 1.909 billion RMB in 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 67.7% [2]. - TOP TOY achieved a net profit of 212 million RMB in 2023, further increasing to 293 million RMB in 2024, indicating a successful turnaround from previous losses [2]. Market Position - By 2024, TOP TOY captured a market share of 2.2%, positioning itself as a notable player in the trendy toy industry, although still significantly behind competitors like Pop Mart and LEGO [3]. - Despite its growth, TOP TOY's profitability remains low compared to Pop Mart, with a net profit of 294 million RMB in 2024, which is less than one-tenth of Pop Mart's earnings [3]. Financial Performance - TOP TOY's gross margin improved from 19.9% in 2022 to 32.7% in 2024, although it slightly decreased to 32.4% in the first half of 2025 [2]. - The company faces challenges with rising sales and distribution expenses, which increased by 102.4% in the first half of 2025, outpacing revenue growth of 58.5% [3]. Cash Flow Analysis - The company maintains positive operating cash flow, but its investment and financing cash flows are negative due to store expansion and debt repayments, indicating a reliance on external financing [4]. IP and Product Strategy - TOP TOY's IP strategy relies heavily on licensed IPs, with 43 licensed IPs contributing 889 million RMB in revenue in 2024, while its proprietary IPs generated only 6.8 million RMB [5][6]. - The company faces risks associated with its dependence on licensed IPs, as the expiration of key licenses could impact product supply and profitability [6]. Channel Strategy - TOP TOY's distribution strategy is primarily based on a franchise and distribution model, with a significant portion of revenue coming from offline distributors [8]. - The company has 293 stores, with a notable reliance on Miniso for channel support, which could limit its long-term growth potential if Miniso alters its partnership terms [9]. Long-term Outlook - While TOP TOY has demonstrated strong growth and potential in the trendy toy market, structural issues such as IP dependency and channel reliance pose significant challenges to its independent growth [10]. - The company's long-term valuation will depend on its ability to enhance its IP autonomy, reduce channel dependency, and optimize its financial structure, alongside the overall growth trends in the trendy toy industry [10].

Core Viewpoint - The rise of the Z generation's consumption power and the upgrade of new consumption structures are driving the strong growth of the trendy toy sector, with companies like TOP TOY gaining attention in the capital market as they prepare for IPOs [1][2]. Company Overview - TOP TOY, established in 2020 and a subsidiary of Miniso, focuses on selling licensed IP toys, proprietary IP toys, and third-party brand toys, covering various categories such as blind boxes, building blocks, figurines, and more [1][2]. Financial Performance - TOP TOY has shown impressive financial growth, with revenue increasing from 679 million yuan in 2022 to 1.909 billion yuan in 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 67.7%. In the first half of 2025, revenue reached 1.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.5% [2][3]. - The company's gross margin improved from 19.9% in 2022 to 32.7% in 2024, although it slightly decreased to 32.4% in the first half of 2025 [2][3]. - TOP TOY transitioned from a loss in 2022 to a net profit of 212 million yuan in 2023, further increasing to 293 million yuan in 2024, with a net profit of approximately 180 million yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 26.8% [2][3]. Market Position - By 2024, TOP TOY captured a market share of 2.2%, significantly lower than Pop Mart's 12.3% and slightly below Lego's 4.2%, yet it remains a notable player in the trendy toy industry [2][3]. Competitive Landscape - Despite its growth, TOP TOY's profitability is less than one-tenth of Pop Mart's, with a gross margin of 32.7% compared to Pop Mart's 66.8% in 2024, highlighting a significant gap in financial performance [3]. - The company relies heavily on licensed IPs, with 43 licensed IPs contributing 889 million yuan in revenue in 2024, while its proprietary IPs generated only 6.8 million yuan [4][5]. Challenges and Risks - TOP TOY's heavy reliance on licensed IPs poses a risk, as the expiration of key licenses could impact product supply and profitability. Key licenses for popular IPs like Sanrio and Disney are set to expire between 2026 and 2028 [5][6]. - The company's sales and distribution expenses surged by 102.4% in the first half of 2025, outpacing revenue growth, primarily due to overseas expansion costs [3][9]. - The cash flow structure shows positive operating cash flow but negative investment and financing cash flows, indicating a potential reliance on external financing to cover short-term liquidity needs [3][9]. Strategic Insights - TOP TOY's channel strategy relies on a franchise and distribution model, with significant revenue coming from Miniso, which accounted for 36.8% to 53.5% of total revenue over recent years [7][8]. - While the support from Miniso has facilitated rapid market entry, it may also limit TOP TOY's long-term growth if Miniso adjusts its partnership terms [8][9]. Conclusion - TOP TOY's rapid growth in the trendy toy sector showcases its potential, but structural issues related to IP dependency and channel reliance may hinder its ability to operate independently in the long term [9][10].

在官网中，TOP TOY这样描述自己的目标："致力于打造全球最大最全的世界级潮玩品牌，搭建与年轻人深度沟通的潮玩体验&消费主场。"上市将进一步推 动TOP TOY目标的实现。 近日，TOP TOY正式向香港联合交易所递交主板上市申请，联席保荐人为摩根大通、瑞银集团和中信证券。与此同时，TOP TOY母公司名创优品也发布公 告确认了TOP TOY此次分拆上市的消息。TOP TOY是名创优品旗下潮玩品牌，该品牌创立于2020年12月，定位为潮流玩具集合店，主要售卖授权IP玩具、 自有IP玩具和第三方品牌玩具等。 对于TOP TOY分拆上市的消息，市场早有传闻。今年6月，名创优品曾发布公告回应称正对该业务分拆上市的可能性进行初步评估。 近年来，潮玩风口正热，整个潮玩市场以不小的速度增长。根据公开数据，中国潮玩市场规模由2019年的207亿元增长至2024年的587亿元，复合年增长率为 23.2%，并预计将由2025年的825亿元增长至2030年的2133亿元，复合年增长率为20.9%。 随着此番推动上市，TOP TOY也将在IP资源方面进一步布局。对于募集资金的使用情况，TOP TOY在招股书中表示，IPO募集所得 ...