服装丨市场观察 本周看点： -从城市到山野：一场席卷 五亿人的生活迁徙； -快时尚2025：更"高"，更"快"，更"强"； -奢侈品和高端美妆品牌如何选择" 中国代言人"？ 行业环境 概要： 山姆售价499元、充绒量400克的RR羽绒服因高性价比和保暖性成为"过冬神器"，多地 断货。其抢购风潮与"少量多次"供应策略有关，稀缺效应放大了热度。消费者对充绒量的积极 反响打破了"女性重款式轻保暖"的刻板印象，证明保暖仍是核心需求。山姆通过优化款式（如 改用聚酯纤维A字款）和口碑积累，成功吸引中产消费者，其仓储式销售模式强化了"无溢 价"信任感。尽管存在版型大等负面评价，但"保暖""划算"仍是主流反馈。相比之下，轻薄时尚 的排骨羽绒服虽因潮流走红，但实用性不足，质量参差。山姆的成功反映了新理性消费趋势： 消费者更看重硬核功能与品牌信任，而非单纯潮流。 4. 快时尚2025：更"高"，更"快"，更"强" 关键词： 快时尚行业,潮流趋势,高端市场,AI技术,品牌转型 1.11个"新顶流"中高端女装冲进商场，越开越快 关键词：女装赛道,中高端,时尚态度,高质价比,高心价比 概要： 国内中高端女装市场涌现新锐品牌，通过差异化 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint expressed by Duan Yongping is that while he acknowledges the success of Pop Mart, he questions the sustainability of its business model and the long-term demand for its products [1][3]. - Duan Yongping highlights that the blind box concept may not be applicable to all products, suggesting that not every brand can successfully implement this model [1]. - He emphasizes that the emotional value associated with products like Pop Mart's offerings is significant, but he personally does not understand the broader appeal of such products [3]. Group 2 - The timing of Duan Yongping's comments is notable, as they coincide with a significant decline in Pop Mart's stock price, which was reported at 197.00 HKD per share, with a total market capitalization of 264.56 billion HKD as of January 12, 2026 [4]. - Pop Mart's stock price had previously reached a high of 335.40 HKD per share on August 26, 2025, with a market cap exceeding 450 billion HKD, indicating a substantial drop in value [4].

Core Insights - The seventh edition of "Company Secrets" is now available for pre-sale, focusing on in-depth financial analysis rather than superficial business advice [1] - The publication aims to uncover the underlying logic of companies' profitability and losses, featuring case studies from various companies [1] Summary by Topics Company Performance - NIO's L90 achieved a monthly sales figure of 15,000 units, attributed to a pricing strategy of 260,000 and platform-based production, marking a significant recovery from 5,000 monthly sales to over 40,000 [1] - Pop Mart's revenue reached 3.4 billion, with profits surpassing global toy giant Mattel, driven by the normalization of IP blockbuster products [1] - Bawang Tea's revenue increased by 167% within a year, supported by a high-end positioning strategy and expansion into lower-tier markets [1] Industry Trends - The publication also addresses challenges faced by Nintendo with the Switch, Hengrui's transformation in centralized procurement, and Cambrian's resurgence in AI computing power [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that while the investment value of Pop Mart is recognized, there are concerns regarding the long-term sustainability of its core demand [2][3] - Investor Duan Yongping acknowledges Pop Mart's impressive business performance and its successful creation of popular IPs like Labubu and Starry People, targeting young female consumers [3] - The blind box model employed by Pop Mart is attractive due to its gambling-like nature, encouraging repeat purchases as consumers seek desired items from a selection of 12 blind boxes [3] Group 2 - Duan Yongping expresses skepticism about the long-term necessity of Pop Mart's products, questioning the potential decline in demand over time [3] - He compares Pop Mart's products to luxury and art items, suggesting that their demand is based on emotional consumption, which is difficult to quantify and subject to trend changes [3] - Concerns are raised about the limitations of the blind box model, indicating that not all products can successfully adopt this approach, hinting at the dependency of Pop Mart's success on its IP and blind box strategy [3] Group 3 - Regulatory scrutiny has increased around the blind box model due to concerns over inducing excessive consumption, leading to tighter industry regulations [3] - The lifecycle of IPs is unpredictable, and while Pop Mart has developed a multi-IP strategy, its ability to continuously create new hits remains uncertain [3] - Duan Yongping emphasizes the need for Pop Mart to demonstrate its capability to navigate through "trend cycles" to become a long-term quality investment [3]

公 司 报 告 传媒 2026 年 01 月 12 日 | 行业 | 传媒 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.popmart.com | | 大股东/持股 | GWF Holding Limited(41.78%) | | 实际控制人 | 王宁 | | 总股本(百万股) | 1342.94 | | 流通 H 股(百万股) | 1342.94 | | 总市值（亿元） | 2380.32 | | 流通 H 股市值(亿元) | 2380.32 | | 每股净资产(元) | 10.56 | | 资产负债率(%) | 32.44 | 行情走势图 证券分析师 王源 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524010001 WANGYUAN468@pingan.com.cn 泡泡玛特(9992.HK) 横向引领，纵向成长 推荐（首次） 股价：197 港元 主要数据 平安观点： 泡泡玛特公司成立于 2010 年，是中国领先的潮流文化娱乐公司。公司发展 十余年来，围绕全球艺术家挖掘、IP 孵化运营、消费者触达、潮玩文化推 广、关联产业投资整合五个领域，构建了覆盖潮流玩具全产业链的综合运 营平台。 | | 2023 ...

Core Insights - The geographical landscape of China's consumer market is shifting from traditional first-tier cities to emerging urban areas, indicating a significant change in consumption growth dynamics and brand competition [1][7] Group 1: Consumption Trends - The "Box District Housing Index" shows that cities like Shijiazhuang, Xuzhou, and Linyi have indices of 171, 141, and 127 respectively, significantly above the national average of 100, highlighting the rising consumption power in these emerging cities [1] - Retail brands such as Xixifu Bookstore and outdoor brand Salomon are expanding into emerging markets, confirming the trend of a silent yet profound geographical migration in consumption [1] - Consumers in emerging cities are increasingly seeking quality and unique experiences, aligning their demands with those of consumers in first-tier cities [3][4] Group 2: Industrial Upgrades - Industrial upgrades are driving the transformation of cities and reshaping the consumption base, with cities like Yibin becoming key players in the power battery industry, achieving over 100 billion in output value in both 2023 and 2024 [2] - Hefei has emerged as a leader in the new energy vehicle sector, producing 1.097 million vehicles from January to October 2025, and hosting numerous core component enterprises, establishing a robust industrial cluster [2] Group 3: Consumer Behavior Changes - The influx of skilled workers and rising disposable incomes in emerging cities are creating a new consumer demographic with unique spending power, leading to increased consumption [3] - Data shows that 55.7% of non-first-tier cities have GDP growth rates exceeding the national average, with 65.2% of third-tier cities and 60.7% of fourth-tier cities also outperforming the national growth rate [3] Group 4: Retail Innovations - Brands like Hema are transforming traditional shopping experiences into multi-functional destinations that combine dining, socializing, and shopping, thus enhancing consumer engagement [6] - Hema's new stores have seen immediate success, with significant sales figures reported on opening days, indicating strong market demand and consumer interest [6] Group 5: Future Outlook - The shift in consumption dynamics suggests that retail brands capable of maintaining competitiveness in high-tier cities while successfully penetrating emerging markets will likely emerge as the biggest winners [7][8] - The evolving consumer landscape in emerging cities is characterized by a growing demand for quality products and experiences, which is reshaping the retail industry [8]

Group 1 - In 2025, Shanghai Consumer Protection Committee handled a total of 321,142 consumer complaints, with a significant portion related to online shopping [2][3] - Product-related complaints accounted for 64.3% of total complaints, with clothing, home goods, and home appliances being the top three categories [2] - Service-related complaints made up 35.7% of total complaints, with internet services, transportation, and cultural entertainment being the most common issues [2] Group 2 - Online shopping complaints saw a year-on-year increase of 34.8%, totaling 172,221 complaints, primarily concerning clothing and home goods [3] - Complaints regarding communication and computer products increased significantly, with a 43.7% rise in communication product complaints and a 10% increase in computer-related complaints [4] - Complaints related to shared bicycles surged by 74.5%, highlighting issues such as inaccurate billing and vehicle malfunctions [5] Group 3 - The demand for beauty and skincare services is rising, with 3,626 complaints related to these services, indicating a need for improved service standards [5] - Complaints regarding blind boxes and card draws totaled 2,842, with consumers reporting product quality issues and concerns over after-sales responsibilities [6][7]

Core Insights - The report highlights the rise of Chinese潮玩 (trendy toys) brands in the global market, driven by emotional consumption trends and innovative cultural export models [1][17] - Chinese潮玩 companies are successfully penetrating mature markets in Europe and North America, as well as emerging markets in Southeast Asia, leveraging unique IP operations and efficient supply chains [1][3] Group 1: U.S. Market Dynamics - The U.S. economy is experiencing a "K-shaped" recovery, where high-income consumers show resilience while low-income groups face pressure from inflation and employment fluctuations [2][21] - The "healing economy" trend is gaining traction, with潮玩 products like blind boxes and plush toys providing emotional value and social engagement, leading to increased demand [2][21] - Chinese潮玩 brands, such as Pop Mart, differentiate themselves by offering original IPs and innovative product formats, achieving a price range of $20 to $40, appealing to various income levels [2][21] Group 2: Southeast Asia Market Opportunities - Southeast Asia is viewed as a blue ocean market for潮玩, characterized by a young population, high internet penetration, and strong consumer upgrade intentions [3][4] - The success of Pop Mart's LABUBU toy in Thailand, following a social media endorsement by local celebrity Lisa, exemplifies the alignment of潮玩 with local youth culture [3][4] - Despite challenges such as fluctuating external tariffs and internal political complexities, Chinese brands are advancing into this market with localized designs and a multi-channel approach [3][4] Group 3: Company Strategies and Differentiation - Pop Mart focuses on building a comprehensive IP ecosystem, from creation to sales, aiming to transform short-term trends into long-lasting IPs through various media [4][5] - Miniso leverages its global retail network and supply chain efficiency to act as a high-efficiency IP monetization platform, enhancing store performance through strategic IP collaborations [4][5] - TOP TOY, as a rising player, benefits from synergies with Miniso, focusing on product development while utilizing Miniso's sales channels for rapid market expansion [5][6] Group 4: Cultural and Economic Shift - The success of Chinese潮玩 brands signifies a shift from "Made in China" to "Emotional Brands from China," emphasizing universal emotional connections rather than relying solely on traditional cultural narratives [6][17] - Chinese companies are combining mature supply chains with innovative business models and original designs, transitioning from traditional manufacturing roles to becoming key players in the global潮玩 industry [6][17]

Core Insights - The integration of movies with consumer products and tourism is driving significant growth in the domestic market, particularly through the rise of film-related IPs [5][19][23] Group 1: Consumer Behavior - Nearly 70% of consumers are willing to spend 2-3 hours shopping and dining before or after watching a movie, with over 40% willing to travel to filming locations for a weekend or longer [4] - Consumers are increasingly purchasing related merchandise, such as blind boxes and anime-themed products, indicating a trend towards experiential and collectible spending [2][3] Group 2: IP Development and Market Growth - The number of domestic IP collaborations is expected to grow by over 60% by 2025, with around 50 quality IPs contributing to a nearly 40% increase in company revenues [7] - The film industry is transitioning from a reliance on box office revenue to a diversified profit model through the full-chain development of IPs, enhancing cultural dissemination and profitability [23][25] Group 3: Tourism Impact - The "Follow the Movie to Travel" initiative is set to significantly boost tourism, with a projected 6% increase in visitor numbers to film-related cities in 2025, and holiday periods seeing increases of up to 30.6% [11][18] - The expansion of night tourism and immersive experiences at filming locations is enhancing visitor engagement and satisfaction [16][18] Group 4: Industry Dynamics - The rapid development of film IPs is a response to upgraded consumer demands and the fast-paced evolution of the industry, moving beyond traditional viewing experiences to offer long-term emotional connections [19][21] - The film industry's ability to create a virtuous cycle where movies boost merchandise sales, which in turn enhances the popularity of the IP, is becoming increasingly evident [25] Group 5: Economic Contribution - In the previous year, the total box office revenue in China reached 51.832 billion yuan, while the related industry chain's output value exceeded 800 billion yuan, highlighting the economic significance of the film industry [27]

Core Viewpoint - The integration of movies with various consumer products and experiences is driving significant growth in the domestic film industry and related sectors, creating a robust ecosystem that enhances cultural exchange and economic opportunities [4][20][24]. Group 1: Consumer Behavior and Trends - Nearly 70% of consumers are willing to spend 2-3 hours shopping and dining before or after watching a movie, with over 40% willing to travel to filming locations for a weekend or longer [3][12]. - The popularity of blind boxes and related merchandise indicates a growing trend in consumer spending on film-related products [1]. Group 2: IP Development and Market Growth - The number of domestic IP collaborations is expected to increase by over 60% in 2025 compared to the previous year, with around 50 quality IPs contributing to nearly 40% growth in company performance [7]. - The film industry is transitioning from a reliance on box office revenue to a diversified profit model through IP development, enhancing cultural dissemination and profitability [24][26]. Group 3: Tourism and Experience Enhancement - The "Follow the Movie to Travel" initiative is set to significantly boost tourism, with a projected over 6% increase in visitor numbers to film-related cities in 2025, particularly during holidays [13][15]. - The expansion of night tourism experiences and interactive elements in film locations aims to create a more immersive experience for visitors, enhancing engagement with the film's narrative [19][17]. Group 4: Economic Impact - In the previous year, the total box office revenue in China reached 51.832 billion yuan, while the related industry chain's output value exceeded 800 billion yuan, highlighting the economic significance of the film industry [28].