"关税压力测试"系列 2026 年 02 月 23 日 IEEPA 关税被判违法，后续如何演绎？ —"关税压力测试"系列之十三 2026 年 2 月 20 日，美国最高法院投票裁定特朗普政府基于 IEEPA 征收的关税非法，包括对等关 税和芬太尼关税。未来，特朗普政府或如何应对，关税格局将产生哪些变化？ 一、美国最高法关税判决：IEEPA 关税被推翻，全面退款概率较低 最高法判定 IEEPA 关税违法的核心理由是：违背清晰授权原则及重大问题原则。被判违法的关税 措施包括：1)芬太尼关税，中国为 20%（其中 10%已在 11 月暂免）、加拿大 25%、墨西哥 25%； 2)全球对等关税，包括 10%的基准关税及国别附加关税。 关税判决实际执行时间或被延后至 3 月下旬至 4 月初。关税判决生效时间为 2 月 20 日，但生效 不等于立即执行。实际执行时间取决于最高法院递送判决文件时间（一般为判决后第 32 天，即 3 月 24 日），特朗普政府可在 25 日内申请复议，复议难以改变结果，但或提供更长的缓冲期。 IEEPA 关税全部退还的概率较低，但局部退税的概率较高。1）退税程序在法律上已被剥离，单独 执行。 ...

来源：微博@玉渊谭天 一是，美国最高法院裁决，美国政府援引《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）所实施的关税措施，缺乏 明确法律授权。在法律压力之下，美国政府发布行政令，宣布终止一系列关税措施。 二是，美国政府转而援引《1974年贸易法》第122条。该条授权总统在出现严重国际收支问题时，可在 150天内征收临时进口关税或通过配额限制进口。根据美国政府行政令，美国将对进口商品征收10%的 所谓"临时关税"，为期150天，仅有部分商品豁免。十几个小时后，美方又声称将其提高至15%。 全文如下： 【#如何看待美国宣布终止一系列关税措施# 】#美方新关税可能面临司法诉讼# 当地时间2月20日，美国发生了两件事。 可以看到，美国的关税工具正在从"IEEPA"切换到"第122条"。围绕此变化，有几个问题需要厘清。 ⦁ 哪些关税被停止征收？ 2月22日，微博博主@玉渊谭天 发文称美方新关税可能面临司法诉讼。 美国最高法院此次的裁决，以及美国政府随后发布的行政令都说明，美国依据《国际紧急经济权力法》 （IEEPA）加征的关税没有法律基础，美方相关部门将终止执行相关关税举措。 那么，具体哪些会被停止？ 自去年2月以来，美国依据I ...

Core Viewpoint - The delay in the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling on the Trump administration's tariff case reflects significant internal divisions, but it is expected that a decision will not be postponed for long [1] Group 1: Supreme Court Proceedings - The U.S. Supreme Court has not yet ruled on the tariff case, with potential announcements expected on January 21 or 22 [1] - Analysts suggest that the longer the ruling is delayed, the more favorable it may become for the Trump administration [1][4] - The case has been expedited, with expectations for a ruling in January, although delays have occurred [3] Group 2: Market Reactions - Consumer stocks in the U.S. have seen declines due to market concerns over policy uncertainty stemming from the delayed ruling [1] - Wall Street analysts are becoming increasingly optimistic about the ruling, suggesting that the impact of the tariff issue may diminish over time [4] Group 3: Financial Implications - The potential refund amount related to tariffs is estimated at $135 billion [5] - Trump's administration has indicated that a ruling against the tariffs could lead to significant financial repercussions, potentially involving "hundreds of billions" in refunds [6] - Current tariff revenues have increased by $206 billion over the past eight months, but the actual impact on the economy may be limited due to the scale of the U.S. economy [7]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court is set to rule on the legality of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which could have significant implications for Trump's economic policies and potential refunds of over $133.5 billion in tariffs to importers if deemed illegal [2][7]. Group 1: Tariff Legislation and Legal Proceedings - The Trump administration invoked IEEPA to impose tariffs without congressional approval, leading to legal challenges that have deemed many of these tariffs illegal [3]. - The Supreme Court's ruling on January 9 could mark a significant legal defeat for the Trump administration, impacting its economic strategy [2][3]. - If the Supreme Court rules against the Trump administration, it may lead to the refund of over $133.5 billion in tariffs collected from importers [7]. Group 2: Potential Legal and Economic Implications - The Trump administration has prepared alternative strategies to impose tariffs, including utilizing the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 and the Trade Act of 1974, which allow for investigations and tariffs on trade partners [5][6]. - Legal experts indicate that the administration may also consider invoking lesser-used provisions of trade law to impose tariffs if the Supreme Court ruling is unfavorable [6]. - Major retailers and companies, including Costco and Revlon, have initiated lawsuits to reclaim tariffs paid, reflecting widespread concern among businesses regarding the legality of these tariffs [9].