当地时间1月9日，美国最高法院表示，当天不会就特朗普政府关税案作出裁决。 此次最高法院的审理主要围绕两个核心议题展开：一是特朗普政府是否有权依据《国际紧急经济权力 法》（IEEPA）征收相关关税；二是若裁决该关税征收不合法，美国政府是否需要向已缴纳关税的进口 商退还税款。 值得关注的是，特朗普政府的关税政策实施至今，实际效果与部分分析师最初的预测存在差异。数据显 示，关税对美国通胀的影响有限，而贸易逆差却大幅下降——2025年10月美国贸易失衡水平降至2009年 金融危机结束以来的最低点。不过当时进口额的大幅下滑，与金融危机引发的大规模衰退存在一定关 联。 特朗普政府2025年上台后援引美国《国际紧急经济权力法》，以不经过国会批准、直接颁布行政令的方 式出台一系列加征关税措施。美国联邦最高法院此前宣布，将在本月9日就关税政策合法性作出裁决。 此次关税判决对美国贸易格局、财政健康度及全球经济互动的影响将逐步显现，后续政策调整与市场反 应值得持续追踪。 美国财政部部长斯科特・贝森特此前在明尼阿波利斯的公开活动中强调："毫无疑问，我们有能力维持 大致相当水平的关税收入，但令人遗憾的是，若裁决不利，总统将失去利用关税 ...

特朗普政府标志性关税政策的命运，正悬于美国最高法院的一项关键裁决之上。尽管美政府高官试图淡 化潜在的法律挫败，但总统特朗普本人日益焦虑的言论，结合市场与分析师的普遍预测，都指向一个越 来越清晰的可能性：政府或将输掉这场官司，而后续的补救措施远比官员们所描绘的要复杂。 这项预计于明年1月公布的裁决，核心是判定政府是否有权依据《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）来 征收基础广泛的"对等关税"。近期，特朗普在社交媒体上激烈发声，称"邪恶的、憎恨美国的力量正在 最高法院与我们作斗争"，并呼吁大法官"为美国做正确的事"。而这种罕见的表态被市场解读为他对其 政策可能被推翻的深切忧虑。 今年11月6日，特朗普也曾告诉记者，如果他输掉在最高法院的这场诉讼，那将"对我们国家造成毁灭性 打击"。特朗普说道，如果真是这样，"我们就得制定第二套方案了"。 与特朗普的焦虑形成对比的是，内阁成员展现出一种"胸有成竹"的姿态。财政部长贝森特周二（12月16 日）警告称，推翻关税将"损害国家安全"，因为"经济安全就是国家安全"。但他同时表示，政府拥 有"很多其他增加财政收入的途径"。 败诉风险逼近：焦虑的总统与"淡定"的内阁 目前，市场对特 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has reached its 34th day, nearing the record of 35 days, impacting over 42 million low-income individuals reliant on food assistance and affecting 2 million federal employees who are furloughed or unpaid [1][3] - The shutdown has caused significant disruptions in various sectors, including air travel, with nearly 8,000 flight delays and over 270 cancellations due to a shortage of air traffic controllers [3] - Federal employees, approximately 1.3 million, are facing financial hardships, with 750,000 on unpaid leave, and over 4,000 employees from seven federal agencies have received layoff notices [3][5] Group 2 - The Smithsonian Institution has closed several museums and the National Zoo, leading to disappointment among visitors and a shortage of resources for food banks that rely on federal funding [5][6] - The political deadlock is primarily due to disagreements between Democrats and Republicans over the Affordable Care Act, with Democrats insisting on extending tax credits as a condition for reopening the government [6][8] - The Congressional Budget Office reported that the previous 35-day shutdown in 2018-2019 resulted in a $11 billion reduction in economic output, and the current shutdown could lower annual GDP growth by approximately 0.1% per week [8] Group 3 - The upcoming Supreme Court hearing on November 5 regarding the legality of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration is a significant event, with Trump planning to attend, which is unprecedented in the court's 235-year history [8][10] - The legal case involves substantial economic interests, with U.S. companies having paid nearly $90 billion in tariffs, and businesses reporting significant financial losses due to the tariff policies [10] - The ongoing government shutdown, tariff disputes, and calls for interest rate cuts from the Treasury Secretary are interlinked issues that reflect the complexities of the U.S. political economy [15][16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that gold prices are experiencing a strong upward momentum, driven by rising expectations of US interest rate cuts, trade policy impacts, and uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve appointments [1][3]. - Gold prices reached a near two-week high of $3390.32, closing at $3380.65, marking four consecutive days of gains [1]. - The appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset is significantly increasing due to a substantial narrowing of the trade deficit and stagnation in service sector activities [1]. Group 2 - The analysis indicates that gold showed a significant rise to $3390.4 after a recommendation to buy around $3355-$3358, resulting in profitable trades [3]. - The daily chart shows a bullish trend with four consecutive positive daily closes and a rising 5-day moving average, while the MACD indicator shows a bullish crossover [3]. - Short-term analysis suggests a slight bearish trend with potential support levels at $3350 and $3360, while the focus remains on the breakout of the previous high at $3390 [3]. Group 3 - Trading recommendations include buying gold around $3354-$3357 with a stop loss at $3349 and a target of $3375-$3380 [5]. - Another recommendation suggests selling gold around $3389-$3392 with a stop loss at $3397 and a target of $3370 [5].

Core Insights - The global PC market is experiencing a 7.4% year-on-year growth in Q2 2025, with total shipments reaching 67.6 million units, driven primarily by commercial PC deployments ahead of the Windows 10 service termination [1][4] - Consumer demand remains weak due to macroeconomic uncertainties, influenced by the evolving tariff policies of the Trump administration, which have created significant uncertainty in the market [1][2] Market Performance - In Q2 2025, notebook shipments (including mobile workstations) reached 53.9 million units, growing by 7%, while desktop shipments increased by 9% to 13.7 million units [1] - Lenovo maintained its leadership in the global PC market with shipments of 17 million units, a year-on-year increase of 15.2% [4][5] - HP followed with 14.1 million units shipped, reflecting a growth rate of 3.2%, while Dell's shipments decreased by 3% to 9.8 million units [4][5] - Apple saw a significant growth of 21.3%, with shipments reaching 6.4 million units, capturing a market share of 9.4% [4][5] - ASUS ranked fifth with shipments of 5 million units, marking an 18.4% increase [4][5] Supply Chain Dynamics - The evolving tariff policies are reshaping the global PC supply chain, with a notable shift in US PC imports from China to Vietnam to avoid potential tariffs [2] - Recent trade agreements between the US and Vietnam impose a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods and up to 40% on "transshipped" products, complicating the supply chain further [2] - The ambiguity surrounding the enforcement standards raises concerns about cost stability for market participants, as products made in Vietnam using Chinese components may be subject to higher tariffs [2] Consumer Behavior - The impending termination of Windows 10 services is expected to stabilize the market, particularly benefiting commercial device upgrades, while consumer purchasing decisions are likely to be delayed due to economic uncertainties [4] - A survey indicated that over half of channel partners expect their PC business to grow year-on-year in the second half of 2025, with 29% anticipating growth exceeding 10% [4]

Group 1 - Japan's household consumption showed the fastest growth in nearly three years in May, indicating a potential recovery in consumer confidence [5] - The Cabinet Office's May economic index assessment turned negative for the first time since July 2020, suggesting a high likelihood of recession [1] - Japan's real GDP decreased by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2025, marking the first negative growth in four quarters [1] Group 2 - The current economic index stands at 115.9, reflecting a 0.1 percentage point decline, with five out of ten components showing negative factors [3] - Japan's exports fell to 8.135 trillion yen in May, a 1.7% year-on-year decrease, marking the first decline in eight months [3] - The decline in exports was primarily driven by significant drops in automotive exports (down 6.9%), steel exports (down 20.6%), and mineral fuel exports (down 50.7%) [3] Group 3 - Japan's real wages adjusted for inflation fell by 2.9% year-on-year in May, the largest decline in 20 months, despite a nominal wage increase of 1.0% [4] - The consumer price index in Japan rose by 4.0% in May, remaining above 4% for six consecutive months [4] - The yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds rose by 12.5 basis points to 3.09%, indicating a potential return of market volatility [4] Group 4 - The increase in household spending in May was driven by higher expenditures on automobiles and travel, surpassing economists' expectations [5] - Consumer spending accounts for over half of Japan's economic output, making it a crucial indicator of economic vitality [5] - The sustainability of this consumption growth is contingent on real wage increases, as ongoing inflation could erode household purchasing power [5]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Global Research suggests that it is time to buy medium-term Japanese government bonds due to recent price declines [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - Bond market participants believe that the Bank of Japan may not raise interest rates until as early as October 2025 [1] - The uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's tariff policies continues to be emphasized by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda [1] Group 2: Diplomatic Context - The recent Japan-U.S. summit did not result in any agreements, indicating that the market may require more time to digest the potential for the Bank of Japan's next interest rate hike [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Atlanta Fed President Bostic suggests that it is unwise to adjust monetary policy at this time due to uncertainties surrounding the Trump administration's tariffs and other policies, which have led to an economic "stall" [1] Economic Impact - Bostic indicates that the uncertainties have resulted in households and businesses refraining from making significant investments [1] - He emphasizes that the specific economic outcome largely depends on the details of policy implementation, highlighting the current lack of clarity [1] Policy Recommendations - Bostic advises the Federal Reserve to remain cautious and refrain from making bold policy moves until the situation becomes clearer [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. airline industry had high hopes for 2025, but actual passenger demand has fallen short of initial expectations, leading to several airlines, including American Airlines, to withdraw their financial forecasts for the year [1][2] Group 1: Financial Forecasts and Performance - American Airlines announced the withdrawal of its 2025 performance forecast on April 24, following similar actions by Southwest Airlines, Delta Airlines, Alaska Airlines, and JetBlue [1] - The stock price of American Airlines dropped over 1% on the announcement day, with a year-to-date decline of 47%, significantly outpacing the S&P 500 index [1] - Initially, American Airlines projected an adjusted earnings per share of $1.70 to $2.70 and revenue growth of 4.5% to 7.5% for 2025 [1] Group 2: Market Conditions and Demand - The decline in travel demand is attributed to economic uncertainties, with leisure travel being considered an elastic expenditure [1][2] - CEO Robert Isom noted a significant drop in domestic leisure travel demand starting in February, despite good performance in late 2024 and early 2025 [1] - March data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated a 5.3% year-over-year decrease in airfare prices [1] Group 3: Industry Responses - Southwest Airlines and United Airlines have announced plans to reduce flight schedules for the latter half of 2025 due to declining demand [3] - Delta Airlines has paused its expansion plans for 2025 after reassessing market conditions, citing stagnant revenue growth due to declining consumer and business confidence [3] - JetBlue has reduced its capacity for the second quarter, anticipating continued weakness in non-peak travel demand [3] Group 4: International Travel Trends - Canadian airlines reported a 10% drop in bookings to the U.S. for spring and summer 2025, with a 70% decrease in bookings from April to September [3] - Smaller airlines have also reduced operations to the U.S. and shifted capacity to domestic markets in Canada [3] Group 5: Economic Implications - Recent cancellations of trips to the U.S. by international tourists are seen as a reaction to the Trump administration's trade policies, highlighting the emotional and behavioral impacts on economic activity [4]

Group 1 - The CEO of Citigroup, Fraser, highlighted that conflicting economic signals, such as strong wages and weak consumer sentiment, are complicating the Federal Reserve's work [1] - Fraser noted that the disconnect between hard data and soft data makes the Federal Reserve's job particularly challenging [1] - The ultimate direction of the Trump administration's tariff policy will be crucial in determining the extent of its impact, with a 10% tariff being easier to absorb compared to a 25% or higher tariff [1] Group 2 - Despite the contradictory economic signals, Fraser still observes that consumer spending continues to grow [1] - She indicated that once there is more certainty, clients will be ready to execute the growing backlog of trading opportunities [1]