来源：金都财神A 【8.6黄金交易建议】 1，黄金稳健回落3354-3357美元附近多，止损3349美元，止盈看3375-3380美元 2，黄金稳健上涨3389-3392美元附近空，止损3397美元，止盈看3370美元 3，建议仅供参考，投资有风险，入市需谨慎 【消息面】 周三（8月6日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于3378美元附近。金价周二延续涨势，一度触及近两周高点3390.32美元，收报3380.65美 元，为连续四个交易日上涨，展现出强劲的上涨动能。这波涨势不仅受到美国降息预期升温的推动，还受到特朗普政府关税政策和美联储人事变 动的影响。从贸易逆差大幅收窄到服务业活动趋于停滞，再到美联储关键任命的悬而未决，黄金作为避险资产的吸引力正在显著增强。 【黄金行情走势分析】 1，昨日亚欧盘黄金震荡回落，笔者在文章中建议3355-3358美元附近做多单，黄金晚间大幅上涨至3390.4美元，黄金多单获利，截止当前，日线 已连续4个交易日收阳线，5日均线向上，MACD指标快慢线在0轴附近金叉，红色多头动能柱轻微增量，日线走势依旧是多头占优势。 2，四小时，黄金早间从3385美元附近小幅回落，当前运行在33 ...

Core Insights - The global PC market is experiencing a 7.4% year-on-year growth in Q2 2025, with total shipments reaching 67.6 million units, driven primarily by commercial PC deployments ahead of the Windows 10 service termination [1][4] - Consumer demand remains weak due to macroeconomic uncertainties, influenced by the evolving tariff policies of the Trump administration, which have created significant uncertainty in the market [1][2] Market Performance - In Q2 2025, notebook shipments (including mobile workstations) reached 53.9 million units, growing by 7%, while desktop shipments increased by 9% to 13.7 million units [1] - Lenovo maintained its leadership in the global PC market with shipments of 17 million units, a year-on-year increase of 15.2% [4][5] - HP followed with 14.1 million units shipped, reflecting a growth rate of 3.2%, while Dell's shipments decreased by 3% to 9.8 million units [4][5] - Apple saw a significant growth of 21.3%, with shipments reaching 6.4 million units, capturing a market share of 9.4% [4][5] - ASUS ranked fifth with shipments of 5 million units, marking an 18.4% increase [4][5] Supply Chain Dynamics - The evolving tariff policies are reshaping the global PC supply chain, with a notable shift in US PC imports from China to Vietnam to avoid potential tariffs [2] - Recent trade agreements between the US and Vietnam impose a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods and up to 40% on "transshipped" products, complicating the supply chain further [2] - The ambiguity surrounding the enforcement standards raises concerns about cost stability for market participants, as products made in Vietnam using Chinese components may be subject to higher tariffs [2] Consumer Behavior - The impending termination of Windows 10 services is expected to stabilize the market, particularly benefiting commercial device upgrades, while consumer purchasing decisions are likely to be delayed due to economic uncertainties [4] - A survey indicated that over half of channel partners expect their PC business to grow year-on-year in the second half of 2025, with 29% anticipating growth exceeding 10% [4]

Group 1 - Japan's household consumption showed the fastest growth in nearly three years in May, indicating a potential recovery in consumer confidence [5] - The Cabinet Office's May economic index assessment turned negative for the first time since July 2020, suggesting a high likelihood of recession [1] - Japan's real GDP decreased by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2025, marking the first negative growth in four quarters [1] Group 2 - The current economic index stands at 115.9, reflecting a 0.1 percentage point decline, with five out of ten components showing negative factors [3] - Japan's exports fell to 8.135 trillion yen in May, a 1.7% year-on-year decrease, marking the first decline in eight months [3] - The decline in exports was primarily driven by significant drops in automotive exports (down 6.9%), steel exports (down 20.6%), and mineral fuel exports (down 50.7%) [3] Group 3 - Japan's real wages adjusted for inflation fell by 2.9% year-on-year in May, the largest decline in 20 months, despite a nominal wage increase of 1.0% [4] - The consumer price index in Japan rose by 4.0% in May, remaining above 4% for six consecutive months [4] - The yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds rose by 12.5 basis points to 3.09%, indicating a potential return of market volatility [4] Group 4 - The increase in household spending in May was driven by higher expenditures on automobiles and travel, surpassing economists' expectations [5] - Consumer spending accounts for over half of Japan's economic output, making it a crucial indicator of economic vitality [5] - The sustainability of this consumption growth is contingent on real wage increases, as ongoing inflation could erode household purchasing power [5]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Global Research suggests that it is time to buy medium-term Japanese government bonds due to recent price declines [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - Bond market participants believe that the Bank of Japan may not raise interest rates until as early as October 2025 [1] - The uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's tariff policies continues to be emphasized by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda [1] Group 2: Diplomatic Context - The recent Japan-U.S. summit did not result in any agreements, indicating that the market may require more time to digest the potential for the Bank of Japan's next interest rate hike [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Atlanta Fed President Bostic suggests that it is unwise to adjust monetary policy at this time due to uncertainties surrounding the Trump administration's tariffs and other policies, which have led to an economic "stall" [1] Economic Impact - Bostic indicates that the uncertainties have resulted in households and businesses refraining from making significant investments [1] - He emphasizes that the specific economic outcome largely depends on the details of policy implementation, highlighting the current lack of clarity [1] Policy Recommendations - Bostic advises the Federal Reserve to remain cautious and refrain from making bold policy moves until the situation becomes clearer [1]

【文/观察者网 邓军 编辑/赵乾坤】 2025年曾被美国航空业寄予厚望，视为"成功之年"，然而现状却令许多航空公司失望：实际的乘客需求 未能达到年初设定的预期目标。 据比利时Travel Tomorrow网站、美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）等外媒报道，继美国西南航空公 司、美国达美航空公司、阿拉斯加航空公司、美国捷蓝航空公司撤回2025年度财务预测后，美国航空也 于当地时间4月24日宣布撤回2025年度业绩预测。当日（4月24日）美股开盘，美国航空股价一度下跌逾 1%，年内累计跌幅达47%，超过标普500指数的五倍。 美国航空在1月份曾预测全年调整后每股收益为1.70至2.70美元，营收增长4.5%至7.5%。然而，由于旅 行消费对多数个人和企业而言属于弹性支出，日益加剧的经济担忧为美国航空业前景蒙上阴影。 美国航空首席执行官罗伯特·艾瑟姆（Robert Isom）在接受CNBC采访时表示："尽管2024年第四季度和 2025年1月份的业务表现不错，但2月起国内（美国）休闲旅游需求显著下滑。" 另据美国劳工统计局的数据，3月份的美国机票价格同比下降了5.3%。 Travel Tomorrow网站的报道称 ...

Group 1 - The CEO of Citigroup, Fraser, highlighted that conflicting economic signals, such as strong wages and weak consumer sentiment, are complicating the Federal Reserve's work [1] - Fraser noted that the disconnect between hard data and soft data makes the Federal Reserve's job particularly challenging [1] - The ultimate direction of the Trump administration's tariff policy will be crucial in determining the extent of its impact, with a 10% tariff being easier to absorb compared to a 25% or higher tariff [1] Group 2 - Despite the contradictory economic signals, Fraser still observes that consumer spending continues to grow [1] - She indicated that once there is more certainty, clients will be ready to execute the growing backlog of trading opportunities [1]