特朗普政府援引IEEPA所开征的关税包括所谓"对等关税"和芬太尼关税等。 "我们有一个重要的最高法院案件。"特朗普在6日告诉众议院共和党人。 据央视报道，当地时间1月6日，美国最高法院宣布，将在本周五（9日）就关税问题作出裁决。 具体而言，当前，美国最高法院已将周五定为裁决日，据悉法官们将于当地时间9日上午10点开庭时宣 布可能作出的裁决。 如果届时美国最高法院就关税问题作出不利于特朗普政府的裁决，被认为将削弱特朗普政府标志性的经 济政策，并成为美国总统特朗普重返白宫以来遭遇的最大法律挫败。 根据美国海关和边境保护局的数据，如果美国最高法院裁定特朗普政府根据《国际紧急经济权力法》 （IEEPA）征收的关税非法，特朗普政府可能面临向进口商退还超过1335亿美元关税的风险。 特朗普政府2025年1月上台后援引IEEPA，以不经过国会批准、直接颁布行政令的方式出台一系列加征 关税措施。 在美国联邦巡回上诉法院和美国国际贸易法院分别裁定现政府一揽子关税政策违法后，特朗普政府向最 高法院提出上诉，目前案件正在最高法院审理。 针对裁决前景，英国杜伦大学法学院副院长、跨国法教授兼全球政策研究所联合主任杜明对第一财经记 者表 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling on presidential tariff powers could significantly impact the market by the end of the year, with uncertainty surrounding tariffs persisting regardless of the court's decision [1] Group 1: Court's Stance and Market Reactions - The Supreme Court justices expressed skepticism about Trump's authority to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), as the law does not explicitly mention tariffs [1] - Internal divisions among the justices are evident, with 4 justices likely opposing the government's stance, while 3 support it, and 2 are undecided [2] - Market expectations fluctuated during the hearings, with the probability of tariffs being upheld dropping from 40% to around 30% [2] Group 2: Economic Impact and Refund Procedures - Even if the court rules against the tariffs, the market should not expect an immediate policy reversal, as refund processes could take months and depend on further legal actions by importers [3] - As of September, approximately $89 billion in IEEPA tariffs had been collected, with projections suggesting this could rise to between $115 billion and $145 billion by the time of the court's ruling [3] - Experts warn that the cancellation of tariffs could lead to greater chaos, with potential for increased uncertainty and a significant rise in the U.S. fiscal deficit due to large refund amounts [3] Group 3: Alternative Legal Options for Tariffs - The Trump administration has multiple alternative legal tools to impose tariffs if the IEEPA is rejected, including provisions from the Trade Act of 1974 and the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 [4] - Goldman Sachs indicates that the government could quickly reimplement similar tariffs using these alternative laws, particularly against major trading partners [4] - The net impact on tariffs for major trading partners may be minimal, with actual tariff rates potentially decreasing by only about 1 percentage point [4]