来源：微博@玉渊谭天 一是，美国最高法院裁决，美国政府援引《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）所实施的关税措施，缺乏 明确法律授权。在法律压力之下，美国政府发布行政令，宣布终止一系列关税措施。 二是，美国政府转而援引《1974年贸易法》第122条。该条授权总统在出现严重国际收支问题时，可在 150天内征收临时进口关税或通过配额限制进口。根据美国政府行政令，美国将对进口商品征收10%的 所谓"临时关税"，为期150天，仅有部分商品豁免。十几个小时后，美方又声称将其提高至15%。 全文如下： 【#如何看待美国宣布终止一系列关税措施# 】#美方新关税可能面临司法诉讼# 当地时间2月20日，美国发生了两件事。 可以看到，美国的关税工具正在从"IEEPA"切换到"第122条"。围绕此变化，有几个问题需要厘清。 ⦁ 哪些关税被停止征收？ 2月22日，微博博主@玉渊谭天 发文称美方新关税可能面临司法诉讼。 美国最高法院此次的裁决，以及美国政府随后发布的行政令都说明，美国依据《国际紧急经济权力法》 （IEEPA）加征的关税没有法律基础，美方相关部门将终止执行相关关税举措。 那么，具体哪些会被停止？ 自去年2月以来，美国依据I ...

Core Viewpoint - The delay in the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling on the Trump administration's tariff case reflects significant internal divisions, but it is expected that a decision will not be postponed for long [1] Group 1: Supreme Court Proceedings - The U.S. Supreme Court has not yet ruled on the tariff case, with potential announcements expected on January 21 or 22 [1] - Analysts suggest that the longer the ruling is delayed, the more favorable it may become for the Trump administration [1][4] - The case has been expedited, with expectations for a ruling in January, although delays have occurred [3] Group 2: Market Reactions - Consumer stocks in the U.S. have seen declines due to market concerns over policy uncertainty stemming from the delayed ruling [1] - Wall Street analysts are becoming increasingly optimistic about the ruling, suggesting that the impact of the tariff issue may diminish over time [4] Group 3: Financial Implications - The potential refund amount related to tariffs is estimated at $135 billion [5] - Trump's administration has indicated that a ruling against the tariffs could lead to significant financial repercussions, potentially involving "hundreds of billions" in refunds [6] - Current tariff revenues have increased by $206 billion over the past eight months, but the actual impact on the economy may be limited due to the scale of the U.S. economy [7]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court is set to rule on the legality of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which could have significant implications for Trump's economic policies and potential refunds of over $133.5 billion in tariffs to importers if deemed illegal [2][7]. Group 1: Tariff Legislation and Legal Proceedings - The Trump administration invoked IEEPA to impose tariffs without congressional approval, leading to legal challenges that have deemed many of these tariffs illegal [3]. - The Supreme Court's ruling on January 9 could mark a significant legal defeat for the Trump administration, impacting its economic strategy [2][3]. - If the Supreme Court rules against the Trump administration, it may lead to the refund of over $133.5 billion in tariffs collected from importers [7]. Group 2: Potential Legal and Economic Implications - The Trump administration has prepared alternative strategies to impose tariffs, including utilizing the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 and the Trade Act of 1974, which allow for investigations and tariffs on trade partners [5][6]. - Legal experts indicate that the administration may also consider invoking lesser-used provisions of trade law to impose tariffs if the Supreme Court ruling is unfavorable [6]. - Major retailers and companies, including Costco and Revlon, have initiated lawsuits to reclaim tariffs paid, reflecting widespread concern among businesses regarding the legality of these tariffs [9].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling on presidential tariff powers could significantly impact the market by the end of the year, with uncertainty surrounding tariffs persisting regardless of the court's decision [1] Group 1: Court's Stance and Market Reactions - The Supreme Court justices expressed skepticism about Trump's authority to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), as the law does not explicitly mention tariffs [1] - Internal divisions among the justices are evident, with 4 justices likely opposing the government's stance, while 3 support it, and 2 are undecided [2] - Market expectations fluctuated during the hearings, with the probability of tariffs being upheld dropping from 40% to around 30% [2] Group 2: Economic Impact and Refund Procedures - Even if the court rules against the tariffs, the market should not expect an immediate policy reversal, as refund processes could take months and depend on further legal actions by importers [3] - As of September, approximately $89 billion in IEEPA tariffs had been collected, with projections suggesting this could rise to between $115 billion and $145 billion by the time of the court's ruling [3] - Experts warn that the cancellation of tariffs could lead to greater chaos, with potential for increased uncertainty and a significant rise in the U.S. fiscal deficit due to large refund amounts [3] Group 3: Alternative Legal Options for Tariffs - The Trump administration has multiple alternative legal tools to impose tariffs if the IEEPA is rejected, including provisions from the Trade Act of 1974 and the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 [4] - Goldman Sachs indicates that the government could quickly reimplement similar tariffs using these alternative laws, particularly against major trading partners [4] - The net impact on tariffs for major trading partners may be minimal, with actual tariff rates potentially decreasing by only about 1 percentage point [4]