Core Insights - The market for Moutai is experiencing a significant downturn, with prices dropping to levels not seen in a decade, reflecting a shift from investment-driven demand to consumer-focused value [6][12][14] - The consensus that Moutai is a guaranteed investment has collapsed, leading to a cautious market sentiment among both consumers and distributors [4][9][12] Price Trends - The wholesale price of 53-degree Flying Moutai has plummeted from approximately 3,500 yuan at the end of 2022 to below 1,700 yuan, marking a decline of over 50% [3][8] - New product launches have also faced severe price drops, with some products seeing reductions of 30-40% shortly after release [7][12] Market Dynamics - Distributors are now facing a "cold winter" in the Moutai market, with many reporting empty warehouses and a drastic reduction in stock levels compared to previous years [2][6][9] - The previous trend of speculative buying has diminished, with many investors retreating from the market as the "only rise" myth surrounding Moutai has been debunked [9][12] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are shifting towards more rational purchasing habits, with many opting to buy only a few bottles for personal use rather than stockpiling [12][16] - The decline in Moutai's perceived value as an investment has led to a reevaluation of its worth as a consumable product [4][13] Industry Outlook - The white liquor industry is undergoing a cyclical adjustment, with increased pressure on channel inventories and a slowdown in growth rates [16][17] - Moutai's management has indicated a focus on long-term strategies to stabilize its market position amid these changes [16][17]