Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in the price of Moutai liquor, transitioning from an investment asset to a consumer product, with many consumers reassessing its intrinsic value [3][10]. Price Decline and Market Reaction - Newly launched cultural series products and the 53-degree Flying Moutai have experienced drastic price drops, with the "Yellow Small Stream Dinner" series falling 30%-40% from its launch price of 2499 yuan to below 1700 yuan [4][5]. - The 375ml version of the "Walk into Five Countries" series has seen its price drop from 1619 yuan to 1050 yuan, while the 700ml version has decreased from 3599 yuan to around 2200 yuan, marking a nearly 40% decline [4][5]. - The price of the 53-degree Flying Moutai has fallen from approximately 2000 yuan at the beginning of the year to around 1600 yuan, a drop of over 50% from its peak of 3500 yuan at the end of 2022 [5][8]. Shift in Consumer Behavior - Consumers are now more cautious and rational in their purchasing decisions, with many no longer hoarding Moutai as an investment, reflecting a shift towards its consumption value [7][10]. - The trend of bulk purchasing for investment purposes has diminished, with consumers typically buying only one or two bottles for personal use [7][8]. Industry Dynamics - The white liquor industry is undergoing a cyclical adjustment, entering a phase of stock competition, with Moutai's strategy focusing on long-term stability and adapting to changing consumer habits [9]. - The decline in Moutai prices has not significantly affected its stock price, indicating a potential disconnect between market sentiment and the company's long-term value [9]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that Moutai may continue to experience price fluctuations in the short term, but there is potential for stabilization at current price levels due to the brand's inherent value and demand in gift and banquet markets [9][10].

限量款也不再稳当，年初那批9999瓶的"散花飞天"一度被炒到12000元，一两个月后就跌回3000元以下，很多跟风者血本无归； 市场寒冬下的价值重估茅台价格跌回十年前，经销商含泪清仓，这事儿说白了就是热钱退潮、存货暴露，然后大家都被迫学会认清那瓶酒的真实面目，让人 好奇的是这场回落到底怎么来、谁先慌、谁最后被套； 接下去的细节有点扎心，也有点带刺，请往下看； 今年年初到现在，市场先是被几款"文化系列"新品热炒推高，然后狂热的人群一起涌进去买单，限量和故事被反复放大，价格被推上高峰； 到2025年上半年，热度突然散了，散到连最稳的53度飞天也从2022年3500元的批发高点一路回落到不到1700元，很多拿着配额的经销商开始觉得不妙； 仓库里，从前年年底堆满箱子的景象变成了如今空荡荡，仅剩零星几箱，是那种能听见回音的空旷感； 经销商曾一伟告诉记者，他做茅台十五年，从来没见过这种冷清，往年年底都是补货备战，现在连拿货都要掂量——这掂量不是算账，是算命； 几款新品在今年像被扔进冰水里一样上市即破发，譬如9月的"黄小溪吃晚饭"发售价2499元，现在跌到1700元左右，跌幅在30%到40%之间； 6月的"走进五国"系列3 ...

Core Insights - The market for Moutai is experiencing a significant downturn, with prices dropping to levels not seen in a decade, reflecting a shift from investment-driven demand to consumer-focused value [6][12][14] - The consensus that Moutai is a guaranteed investment has collapsed, leading to a cautious market sentiment among both consumers and distributors [4][9][12] Price Trends - The wholesale price of 53-degree Flying Moutai has plummeted from approximately 3,500 yuan at the end of 2022 to below 1,700 yuan, marking a decline of over 50% [3][8] - New product launches have also faced severe price drops, with some products seeing reductions of 30-40% shortly after release [7][12] Market Dynamics - Distributors are now facing a "cold winter" in the Moutai market, with many reporting empty warehouses and a drastic reduction in stock levels compared to previous years [2][6][9] - The previous trend of speculative buying has diminished, with many investors retreating from the market as the "only rise" myth surrounding Moutai has been debunked [9][12] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are shifting towards more rational purchasing habits, with many opting to buy only a few bottles for personal use rather than stockpiling [12][16] - The decline in Moutai's perceived value as an investment has led to a reevaluation of its worth as a consumable product [4][13] Industry Outlook - The white liquor industry is undergoing a cyclical adjustment, with increased pressure on channel inventories and a slowdown in growth rates [16][17] - Moutai's management has indicated a focus on long-term strategies to stabilize its market position amid these changes [16][17]

Core Viewpoint - Moutai is redefining the relationship between liquor and consumers by emphasizing a return to its roots, focusing on respecting, connecting, and serving consumers in the evolving landscape of spiritual consumption [1][3][12] Group 1: Event Overview - The 14th China (Guizhou) International Wine Expo was successfully held from September 9 to 13, showcasing Moutai's entire product line and narrating the complete journey of liquor from raw materials to the glass [1] - Moutai's exhibition featured three main areas: "Birth, Growth, and Bloom," highlighting the quality and cultural heritage of Chinese national brands [1][4] Group 2: Cultural and Strategic Shift - Moutai's chairman, Zhang Deqin, emphasized two key points: returning to the essence of Chinese liquor culture and accelerating the shift from selling liquor to selling a lifestyle [3][12] - The liquor industry faces the challenge of reconstructing its value as younger generations drift away from traditional liquor culture, prompting Moutai to adopt a strategy focused on cultural value and consumer experience [4][5] Group 3: Experience and Engagement - Moutai's approach includes creating immersive, experiential, and cultural environments through four dimensions: liquor + ecology, liquor + culture, liquor + technology, and liquor + tourism [6][7] - The exhibition showcased Moutai's commitment to integrating traditional brewing wisdom with modern technology, enhancing consumer trust and engagement [6][7][10] Group 4: Consumer-Centric Practices - Moutai aims to respect, connect, and serve consumers by establishing quality recognition, cultural IPs, and community engagement initiatives [10][11] - The company is expanding its product matrix to meet diverse consumer needs and enhancing its service systems to create fulfilling experiences [10][11] Group 5: Future Vision - Moutai's initiatives reflect a broader industry trend towards cultural-driven strategic transformation, with a focus on emotional and cultural consumption [9][12] - The launch of the 2025 "Chinese Liquor Culture Month" and the "14th Five-Year Plan" for new cultural development indicates a commitment to redefining the core values of liquor culture [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The price of Moutai liquor has experienced significant declines, with various products showing a downward trend in their market prices, while a new high-end product has seen a price increase and strong demand [1][2][3][4]. Price Trends - On August 12, the price of 25-year Moutai (53 degrees/500ml) was reported at 1885 yuan per bottle, down 5 yuan from the previous day, while the scatter bottle was priced at 1860 yuan, down 10 yuan [1]. - The 24-year Moutai was priced at 1920 yuan for the original box, down 10 yuan, and 1890 yuan for the scatter bottle, also down 10 yuan [1]. - The price of "Snake Moutai" has dropped 47.63% from its initial reference price of 3800 yuan to 1990 yuan, while "Dragon Moutai" has decreased by 57% from a peak price of 6000 yuan to 2580 yuan [2]. New Product Performance - The newly launched "Moutai (Five-Star Trademark 70th Anniversary Commemorative)" is priced at 8800 yuan per bottle, which is an increase of 700 yuan, representing an 8.64% daily rise and a 25.71% increase from its initial price of 7000 yuan [3]. - This commemorative product sold out within 2 minutes of its release on August 8, indicating strong consumer demand despite its high price [3]. Additional Product Insights - Other new products released by Moutai this year include "Shengle Feitian" and the "Osaka World Expo Series," with "Shengle Feitian" experiencing a price drop of over 39% from a peak of 3400 yuan to a current reference price of 2070 yuan [4].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the enduring value of Moutai, highlighting its financial attributes, collectible nature, and long-term growth certainty as key factors that contribute to its market resilience [1][2][4]. Group 1: Financial Attributes - Moutai has been referred to as "liquid gold," with a historical price equivalence to "10 grams of gold" in 2021, showcasing its financial appeal [1]. - The auction average price of Moutai old liquor is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.7% from 2020 to 2025, significantly outpacing gold's 5.3% growth during the same period [2]. Group 2: Scarcity and Production - Moutai's production capacity for 2024 is limited to 57,200 tons, representing only 0.6% of China's total liquor production, indicating a structural scarcity [2]. - The production process involves 30 steps and 165 stages, with a minimum aging period of five years, further constraining expansion opportunities [2]. Group 3: Cultural Significance - Moutai's unique aging process enhances its flavor over time, with prices for 30-year and 50-year variants reaching over 10,000 yuan, reflecting the quantifiable value of time [3]. - The company integrates cultural elements into its products, such as the "Scattered Flower Moutai" and "Singing Moutai," which combine traditional art with limited editions, enhancing their collectible appeal [3]. Group 4: Resilience and Growth - Moutai has demonstrated strong resilience, successfully pivoting its strategy during the 2013 "ban on official liquor" by targeting high-net-worth individuals and business consumers [4]. - In Q1 2025, Moutai reported revenue of 50.6 billion yuan and a net profit of 26.8 billion yuan, showcasing its ability to grow even during industry downturns [4]. Group 5: International Expansion - Moutai's overseas sales reached 5.189 billion yuan in 2024, marking a significant increase of 19.27% year-on-year, indicating strong international demand [5]. - The company exported over 2,100 tons of liquor in 2024, with high-value Moutai sales exceeding 100 tons, reflecting a growing consumer base in emerging markets [5].