Core Viewpoint - The recent price fluctuations of Moutai products, particularly the significant increase in the price of the Snake Year Moutai, have raised concerns about the short-term pricing logic in the market [1][4]. Price Trends - Moutai products began to see price increases starting from the evening of December 23, with the 25-Year Flying Moutai rising by 40 yuan per bottle to reach 1600 yuan per bottle [4]. - The Snake Year Moutai experienced a notable price surge, jumping from 1770 yuan per bottle to 2000 yuan per bottle, marking a daily increase of over 13% [4]. Market Demand and Speculation - Despite the price increases, a senior liquor dealer indicated that market demand has not changed significantly, attributing the price rise to psychological factors and inter-dealer demand rather than actual consumption [5]. - There are rumors regarding the potential discontinuation of the Snake Year Moutai, which could enhance its scarcity and attract investors or collectors [5]. Upcoming Events Impacting Prices - The upcoming Moutai dealer conference on December 28 is anticipated to influence short-term price trends, with speculation that new product strategies may be announced [6]. - The market is particularly focused on the potential reduction of non-standard products, which could tighten supply in certain segments and support prices [6]. Industry Sentiment - Most industry insiders maintain a rational perspective on the recent price movements, suggesting that the psychological-driven price increases lack long-term support [6]. - The future market trajectory will depend on the recovery of demand and the policies released by Moutai during the dealer conference [6].

2025.12. 24 本文字数：877，阅读时长大约1.5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 栾立 在平静数日后，茅台价格再次发生较大波动。第三方平台显示，今天（24日）多个茅台品种的价格 大涨，其中最为夸张的是蛇年茅台，一日暴涨230元/瓶，让酒商惊呼"黄牛疯了"。 "黄牛们疯了。"有江苏酒商告诉第一财经记者，今年春节较晚，因此近期酒水市场需求并没有太大的 变化，茅台价格大涨后，他也曾和其他酒商互相确认了市场情况，认为此次上涨主要还是同行间要货 和心理因素在驱动。此外，也有受访酒商认为，蛇茅上涨或与其即将停产有关，但其认为后续反弹的 空间并不大。 值得注意的是，随着蛇年即将结束，茅台是否会推出新一轮生肖酒的消息也备受行业关注，已有酒商 晒出新一轮马年生肖酒的包装，但今日记者向茅台官方求证，截至发稿时未获回应。 另一方面，在业内看来，这一系列价格变化或也与12月28日即将举行的茅台经销商大会有关，此前 有消息称茅台将在会上新的产品和经营策略，其中也包括外界关注的非标产品减量等。 2026阿驴「躺赢日历」限量发售中 多位受访酒商表示，目前市场需求并未发生变化，驱动市场价格波动的更多是心理因素。 记者了解到，从23日晚， ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of Moutai has experienced significant fluctuations recently, driven primarily by psychological factors rather than changes in market demand [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - On the 24th, various Moutai products saw substantial price increases, with the most notable being the "Snake Year" Moutai, which surged by 230 yuan per bottle [1]. - The 25-Year Flying Moutai's price rose by 40 yuan per bottle, reaching 1600 yuan per bottle, while other variants like the "Scattered Flower" Flying Moutai and "Sheng Le" Flying Moutai increased by 100 yuan and 170 yuan per bottle, respectively [2]. - The wholesale price of the Snake Year Moutai increased from 1770 yuan to 2000 yuan per bottle after previously stabilizing around 2499 yuan [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Market demand for Moutai has not changed significantly, and the recent price increases are attributed to psychological factors among traders [2]. - Some industry insiders suggest that the price increase of Snake Year Moutai may be linked to its impending discontinuation, although they believe the potential for further price increases is limited [2]. - The upcoming Moutai distributor conference on December 28 is anticipated to influence pricing strategies and product offerings, including potential reductions in non-standard products [3].

在平静数日后，茅台价格再次发生较大波动。第三方平台显示，今天（24日）多个茅台品种的价格大 涨，其中最为夸张的是蛇年茅台，一日暴涨230元/瓶，让酒商惊呼"黄牛疯了"。 多位受访酒商表示，目前市场需求并未发生变化，驱动市场价格波动的更多是心理因素。 另一方面，在业内看来，这一系列价格变化或也与12月28日即将举行的茅台经销商大会有关，此前有消 息称茅台将在会上新的产品和经营策略，其中也包括外界关注的非标产品减量等。 （文章来源：第一财经） 但价格涨幅最为夸张的还是蛇年茅台，作为茅台第一轮生肖酒的最后一款产品，蛇茅上市后受到市场的 追捧，批发价一度突破5000元/瓶，随后价格一路回落，曾一度稳定在2499元/瓶左右，但下半年价格持 续走低，最低一度跌至1750元/瓶左右。但今日批发价格从1770元上升至2000元/瓶。 "黄牛们疯了。"有江苏酒商告诉第一财经记者，今年春节较晚，因此近期酒水市场需求并没有太大的变 化，茅台价格大涨后，他也曾和其他酒商互相确认了市场情况，认为此次上涨主要还是同行间要货和心 理因素在驱动。此外，也有受访酒商认为，蛇茅上涨或与其即将停产有关，但其认为后续反弹的空间并 不大。 值得注意的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in the price of Moutai liquor, transitioning from an investment asset to a consumer product, with many consumers reassessing its intrinsic value [3][10]. Price Decline and Market Reaction - Newly launched cultural series products and the 53-degree Flying Moutai have experienced drastic price drops, with the "Yellow Small Stream Dinner" series falling 30%-40% from its launch price of 2499 yuan to below 1700 yuan [4][5]. - The 375ml version of the "Walk into Five Countries" series has seen its price drop from 1619 yuan to 1050 yuan, while the 700ml version has decreased from 3599 yuan to around 2200 yuan, marking a nearly 40% decline [4][5]. - The price of the 53-degree Flying Moutai has fallen from approximately 2000 yuan at the beginning of the year to around 1600 yuan, a drop of over 50% from its peak of 3500 yuan at the end of 2022 [5][8]. Shift in Consumer Behavior - Consumers are now more cautious and rational in their purchasing decisions, with many no longer hoarding Moutai as an investment, reflecting a shift towards its consumption value [7][10]. - The trend of bulk purchasing for investment purposes has diminished, with consumers typically buying only one or two bottles for personal use [7][8]. Industry Dynamics - The white liquor industry is undergoing a cyclical adjustment, entering a phase of stock competition, with Moutai's strategy focusing on long-term stability and adapting to changing consumer habits [9]. - The decline in Moutai prices has not significantly affected its stock price, indicating a potential disconnect between market sentiment and the company's long-term value [9]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that Moutai may continue to experience price fluctuations in the short term, but there is potential for stabilization at current price levels due to the brand's inherent value and demand in gift and banquet markets [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The market for Moutai has experienced a significant downturn, with prices reverting to levels seen a decade ago, leading to a forced reevaluation of its value by dealers and consumers alike [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market was initially driven by hype around several "cultural series" new products, which peaked in early 2023, but by mid-2025, the excitement dissipated, causing prices to plummet [3] - The wholesale price of the popular 53-degree Feitian Moutai fell from 3,500 yuan in 2022 to below 1,700 yuan, prompting concerns among dealers [3] - New product launches have seen drastic price drops, with some products losing 30% to 40% of their value shortly after release [5] Group 2: Dealer Sentiment and Behavior - Dealers are now facing unprecedented market conditions, with many initiating clearance sales to recover cash, often selling below cost [9] - The shift in market dynamics has led to a significant reduction in inventory levels, with warehouses that were once full now echoing emptiness [3][9] - Dealers are increasingly cautious, focusing on quick turnover rather than long-term investment, as many face substantial losses on unsold stock [13][16] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Market Structure - The consumer landscape has shifted, with buyers now purchasing only for personal use rather than for resale, leading to a decline in high-value gift purchases [9][11] - The rise of e-commerce has increased price transparency, contributing to the perception of Moutai as a consumable rather than an investment asset [11][18] - The prevalence of counterfeit products has surged, with over 90% of samples from low-price platforms being fake, causing consumers to be more cautious [9][18] Group 4: Industry Outlook - The Moutai company has acknowledged the cyclical adjustment within the liquor industry, indicating a shift towards a competitive environment focused on existing inventory [13] - Despite the price drop, Moutai's stock has not seen a corresponding decline, with some investors still choosing to increase their holdings, suggesting confidence in the company's long-term value [15] - The company aims to stabilize its supply and distribution channels in anticipation of a market recovery [15]

Core Insights - The market for Moutai is experiencing a significant downturn, with prices dropping to levels not seen in a decade, reflecting a shift from investment-driven demand to consumer-focused value [6][12][14] - The consensus that Moutai is a guaranteed investment has collapsed, leading to a cautious market sentiment among both consumers and distributors [4][9][12] Price Trends - The wholesale price of 53-degree Flying Moutai has plummeted from approximately 3,500 yuan at the end of 2022 to below 1,700 yuan, marking a decline of over 50% [3][8] - New product launches have also faced severe price drops, with some products seeing reductions of 30-40% shortly after release [7][12] Market Dynamics - Distributors are now facing a "cold winter" in the Moutai market, with many reporting empty warehouses and a drastic reduction in stock levels compared to previous years [2][6][9] - The previous trend of speculative buying has diminished, with many investors retreating from the market as the "only rise" myth surrounding Moutai has been debunked [9][12] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are shifting towards more rational purchasing habits, with many opting to buy only a few bottles for personal use rather than stockpiling [12][16] - The decline in Moutai's perceived value as an investment has led to a reevaluation of its worth as a consumable product [4][13] Industry Outlook - The white liquor industry is undergoing a cyclical adjustment, with increased pressure on channel inventories and a slowdown in growth rates [16][17] - Moutai's management has indicated a focus on long-term strategies to stabilize its market position amid these changes [16][17]

Core Viewpoint - Moutai is redefining the relationship between liquor and consumers by emphasizing a return to its roots, focusing on respecting, connecting, and serving consumers in the evolving landscape of spiritual consumption [1][3][12] Group 1: Event Overview - The 14th China (Guizhou) International Wine Expo was successfully held from September 9 to 13, showcasing Moutai's entire product line and narrating the complete journey of liquor from raw materials to the glass [1] - Moutai's exhibition featured three main areas: "Birth, Growth, and Bloom," highlighting the quality and cultural heritage of Chinese national brands [1][4] Group 2: Cultural and Strategic Shift - Moutai's chairman, Zhang Deqin, emphasized two key points: returning to the essence of Chinese liquor culture and accelerating the shift from selling liquor to selling a lifestyle [3][12] - The liquor industry faces the challenge of reconstructing its value as younger generations drift away from traditional liquor culture, prompting Moutai to adopt a strategy focused on cultural value and consumer experience [4][5] Group 3: Experience and Engagement - Moutai's approach includes creating immersive, experiential, and cultural environments through four dimensions: liquor + ecology, liquor + culture, liquor + technology, and liquor + tourism [6][7] - The exhibition showcased Moutai's commitment to integrating traditional brewing wisdom with modern technology, enhancing consumer trust and engagement [6][7][10] Group 4: Consumer-Centric Practices - Moutai aims to respect, connect, and serve consumers by establishing quality recognition, cultural IPs, and community engagement initiatives [10][11] - The company is expanding its product matrix to meet diverse consumer needs and enhancing its service systems to create fulfilling experiences [10][11] Group 5: Future Vision - Moutai's initiatives reflect a broader industry trend towards cultural-driven strategic transformation, with a focus on emotional and cultural consumption [9][12] - The launch of the 2025 "Chinese Liquor Culture Month" and the "14th Five-Year Plan" for new cultural development indicates a commitment to redefining the core values of liquor culture [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The price of Moutai liquor has experienced significant declines, with various products showing a downward trend in their market prices, while a new high-end product has seen a price increase and strong demand [1][2][3][4]. Price Trends - On August 12, the price of 25-year Moutai (53 degrees/500ml) was reported at 1885 yuan per bottle, down 5 yuan from the previous day, while the scatter bottle was priced at 1860 yuan, down 10 yuan [1]. - The 24-year Moutai was priced at 1920 yuan for the original box, down 10 yuan, and 1890 yuan for the scatter bottle, also down 10 yuan [1]. - The price of "Snake Moutai" has dropped 47.63% from its initial reference price of 3800 yuan to 1990 yuan, while "Dragon Moutai" has decreased by 57% from a peak price of 6000 yuan to 2580 yuan [2]. New Product Performance - The newly launched "Moutai (Five-Star Trademark 70th Anniversary Commemorative)" is priced at 8800 yuan per bottle, which is an increase of 700 yuan, representing an 8.64% daily rise and a 25.71% increase from its initial price of 7000 yuan [3]. - This commemorative product sold out within 2 minutes of its release on August 8, indicating strong consumer demand despite its high price [3]. Additional Product Insights - Other new products released by Moutai this year include "Shengle Feitian" and the "Osaka World Expo Series," with "Shengle Feitian" experiencing a price drop of over 39% from a peak of 3400 yuan to a current reference price of 2070 yuan [4].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the enduring value of Moutai, highlighting its financial attributes, collectible nature, and long-term growth certainty as key factors that contribute to its market resilience [1][2][4]. Group 1: Financial Attributes - Moutai has been referred to as "liquid gold," with a historical price equivalence to "10 grams of gold" in 2021, showcasing its financial appeal [1]. - The auction average price of Moutai old liquor is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.7% from 2020 to 2025, significantly outpacing gold's 5.3% growth during the same period [2]. Group 2: Scarcity and Production - Moutai's production capacity for 2024 is limited to 57,200 tons, representing only 0.6% of China's total liquor production, indicating a structural scarcity [2]. - The production process involves 30 steps and 165 stages, with a minimum aging period of five years, further constraining expansion opportunities [2]. Group 3: Cultural Significance - Moutai's unique aging process enhances its flavor over time, with prices for 30-year and 50-year variants reaching over 10,000 yuan, reflecting the quantifiable value of time [3]. - The company integrates cultural elements into its products, such as the "Scattered Flower Moutai" and "Singing Moutai," which combine traditional art with limited editions, enhancing their collectible appeal [3]. Group 4: Resilience and Growth - Moutai has demonstrated strong resilience, successfully pivoting its strategy during the 2013 "ban on official liquor" by targeting high-net-worth individuals and business consumers [4]. - In Q1 2025, Moutai reported revenue of 50.6 billion yuan and a net profit of 26.8 billion yuan, showcasing its ability to grow even during industry downturns [4]. Group 5: International Expansion - Moutai's overseas sales reached 5.189 billion yuan in 2024, marking a significant increase of 19.27% year-on-year, indicating strong international demand [5]. - The company exported over 2,100 tons of liquor in 2024, with high-value Moutai sales exceeding 100 tons, reflecting a growing consumer base in emerging markets [5].