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舍得酒业(600702):2025年秋季策略会速递-精细化经营 静待需求恢复
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-29 09:02
Core Insights - The company emphasizes long-termism and focuses on channel health and inventory reduction, maintaining a positive fundamental trend and stable operations as it enters the second half of 2025 [1] Product Performance - In the first half of the year, the company faced external challenges leading to a contraction in business consumption demand, but it achieved its expected targets. The product structure saw minimal changes, with core products focusing on business consumption facing pressure, while mass-market products like Shezhidao and the bottle wine brand T68 showed significant growth [2] - The company continues to pursue high-end product development and has seen substantial growth in its collectible series, with a notable increase in the first half of 2025 due to a low base [2] Channel Strategy - The company enhances sales through platform push and consumer pull, focusing on base markets. In 2025, it will primarily target six key base markets (Suining, Chengdu, Mianyang, Liaocheng, Dezhou, Tianjin) with significant investments in channel construction and consumer engagement [2] - The company aims to increase its e-commerce share over the next two years through differentiated products and marketing strategies [2] Recent Operational Feedback - The company has seen a notable recovery in sales, with improved performance in key products like Shezhidao and T68. The opening rate has significantly improved from a large decline in June to positive growth in August [3] - Increased investments in banquet markets and expansion into township markets are ongoing, along with enhancements in group purchasing channels. The company is also streamlining its internal organization to improve execution and communication [3] Future Outlook - The company is focused on long-term strategies, concentrating on four core products and innovating cultural products for younger demographics. It plans to enhance brand influence and find growth in existing markets while adhering to its strategy of "downward channels, upward brands, and comprehensive focus on consumers" [3] - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in consumer spending, which will positively impact sales and profitability [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains revenue projections for 2025-2027 at 4.69 billion, 4.90 billion, and 5.21 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -12.5%, +4.5%, and +6.4% respectively. EPS estimates for the same period are 1.47, 1.57, and 1.71 yuan [4] - The company is assigned a target price of 79.42 yuan based on a 54x PE ratio for 2025, maintaining a "buy" rating [4]