双节后的市场反馈及各区域开瓶数据如何？ 2025 年，舍得酒业的主要产品表现可以分为两大类：品牌向上和渠道向下。 品牌向上的产品包括品味舍得和藏品十年，这两款次高端以上的单品在三季度 占比约为 40%。然而，由于宏观经济环境和消费环境的影响，这部分单品的动 销较去年有所减弱。渠道向下和全面向 C 的产品包括针对宴席市场的舍之道和 大众端光瓶酒头牌特级 T68。这两款产品全年的开瓶率和动销情况较好，尤其 是 T68，其动销优于其他单品。 从整体来看，四个大单品中，T68 表现最好， 其次是舍之道，再到品味舍得和藏品十年。双节期间（中秋与国庆）的动销情 况良好，不仅是舍得酒业，各大酒企在此期间也保持了较好的销售水平。展望 2026 年春节，由于 2025 年的开门红基数较高，要超越这一目标难度较大， 但总体上，舍得酒业预计会优于行业平均水平。 预计 2026 年春节白酒行业整体表现良好，但行业完全恢复需两年左右。 舍得酒业明年可能呈现前低后高逐步企稳回升趋势，集团更注重长期健 康发展和策略执行。 品味舍得将坚决提价并升级，T68 也将进行口感和风味升级，大众价位 段竞争将更加激烈，公司将继续发挥全价格带覆盖优势以 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rising trend of low-priced "opened" or "damaged" liquor being sold on live streaming and second-hand platforms, raising concerns about product safety and authenticity [1][2][3]. Group 1: Sales Channels and Pricing - Some liquor brands are being sold at significantly lower prices on live streaming platforms compared to official retail prices, such as a case of 53-degree 500ml Yuanxi liquor priced at 380 yuan versus 590 yuan on official platforms [1][2]. - Various brands are available on second-hand platforms, with prices for opened bottles ranging from 199 yuan for Wuliangchun to 380 yuan for Yanghe Dream Blue [1][2][3]. Group 2: Product Integrity and Safety Concerns - The practice of selling "opened" liquor raises questions about the integrity of the product, as many brands require the bottle to be opened for verification, which can compromise packaging [12][13]. - Legal experts indicate that selling opened or repackaged liquor may violate food safety and trademark laws, posing risks of counterfeit products [13][14]. Group 3: Consumer Warnings and Recommendations - Consumer organizations have repeatedly warned about the safety risks associated with opened liquor, emphasizing that compromised packaging can lead to contamination and spoilage [15][16]. - Recommendations include purchasing liquor from reputable sources such as large supermarkets or licensed online retailers to minimize risks associated with low-priced opened products [16].

Summary of Shede Liquor Industry Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shede Liquor Industry - **Industry**: Baijiu (Chinese liquor) Key Points and Arguments Sales Performance and Market Recovery - During the double festival period, four major products achieved year-on-year growth, indicating a gradual recovery in Baijiu consumption scenarios [2][3] - The demand for banquet scenarios is recovering the fastest, with the mass consumption segment maintaining double-digit growth, particularly for the T68 product [2][5] - Post-festival, the company continues to track weekly opening bottle numbers, which are still in a recovery phase [3] Inventory Management - The company has optimized distributor inventory to 3-4 months, ensuring a healthy and sustainable growth trajectory [2][6] - The goal is to further reduce inventory to 3 months or less by year-end, which is considered a reasonable level [7][8] Pricing and Sales Strategy - Strict price control and incentive adjustments are in place to ensure alignment between actual sales and financial reports [6][16] - The company has shifted its incentive system to target achievement based on historical sales data, resulting in over 75% of sales personnel receiving bonuses [6] Product Performance - T68 is positioned as a mid-to-high-end product and has shown steady growth in the mass consumption segment, contributing to the company's revenue [12][13] - The new 29-degree product "Zizai" is aimed at young consumers and will not enter traditional channels, focusing instead on self-operated stores and new sales strategies [14][26] E-commerce and Online Sales - E-commerce channels have seen rapid growth, with their share increasing to over 10% in 2025, and the company plans to increase online investments while maintaining stable offline development [15][18] - The main focus online is on cultural products, which do not compete with traditional distributors [18] Regional Performance - The "Pinwei Shede" brand has performed exceptionally well in Shandong, particularly in cities like Liaocheng, Tianjin, and Tangshan [10][11] - The company has seen significant growth in the Shandong market post-ban on alcohol [5][21] Future Outlook - The company expects to perform slightly better than the industry average if the overall market remains healthy [9] - Plans for 2026 include continued focus on brand elevation and channel penetration to secure a larger customer base [9][13] International Expansion - The company is actively pursuing international markets, particularly in Southeast Asia and the U.S., adapting products to local cultures and preferences [22][23] - Overseas sales have increased by over 50% in the first half of the year, although significant results will take time [23] New Product Development - The introduction of the 29-degree "Zizai" product aims to cater to new drinkers and women, while also appealing to older consumers who prefer lower alcohol content [24][26] - The company plans to launch affordable products around 100 yuan to meet diverse consumer needs [25][26] Conclusion - Shede Liquor Industry is strategically positioned for growth through effective inventory management, targeted marketing, and expansion into new consumer segments and international markets. The focus on product innovation and e-commerce development will further enhance its competitive edge in the Baijiu industry.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in the performance of Shede Liquor due to weak consumer demand and governance issues, leading to a drastic drop in stock price and market capitalization, with a focus on the company's failed high-end strategy and internal conflicts among stakeholders [1][4]. Financial Performance - Shede Liquor's revenue fell to 5.357 billion yuan in 2024, a 24% decrease, with gross margin dropping to 65.5%, the lowest in eight years, and net profit margin at only 6.35% compared to the industry average of 14.95% [1][2]. - The company's core product, "Taste Shede," suffered due to price wars, with mid-to-low-end products now accounting for 35% of sales, an increase of 8 percentage points from 2023 [1][2]. - The company experienced a significant increase in inventory turnover days from 356 to 939 days, with inventory reaching 5.219 billion yuan, constituting 70% of current assets [6][7]. Governance Issues - The governance structure is characterized by a power struggle between the controlling shareholder, Fosun Group, and local state-owned assets, leading to fragmented decision-making and strategic short-sightedness [4][9]. - The company has seen a significant increase in employee numbers (from 6,630 to 9,816, a 48% rise) but with low revenue per employee of 561,000 yuan, indicating inefficiency [2][6]. - The management's incentive structure has failed, with stock options set at low performance targets, resulting in a lack of accountability and a significant drop in net profit margin from 30.38% in 2023 to 6.35% in 2024 [3][6]. Strategic Failures - The company's high-end strategy has been ineffective, with continued price increases leading to excess inventory rather than sustainable growth [6][8]. - The company has engaged in non-core expansions, such as tourism projects, which have long payback periods and are seen as a means for local government to achieve performance metrics at the expense of shareholder value [12][13]. Stakeholder Dynamics - The relationship between Fosun Group and local state-owned assets has created a "benefit alliance," where both parties prioritize their interests over those of minority shareholders, leading to systemic neglect of their rights [9][10]. - Frequent related-party transactions have resulted in risk transfer and asset depletion, with the company becoming a platform for various interests rather than focusing on its core business [10][14]. Conclusion - Shede Liquor has become a platform for various stakeholders to extract value, with the need for a restructuring of governance mechanisms and a return to core operations to avoid further deterioration of the company's foundation [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - Shede Liquor is facing significant challenges including declining performance, channel imbalances, and tightening cash flow, raising questions about its ability to continue its national expansion strategy amidst a "not-so-strong peak season" [2][3]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Shede Liquor reported revenue of 3.702 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17%, and a net profit of 472 million yuan, down 29.43% [3]. - The third quarter alone saw revenue of 1 billion yuan, a decline of 15.88%, and a net profit of 28.73 million yuan, plummeting 63.18%, marking the lowest quarterly profit since 2016 [3]. - The company’s cash flow from operating activities was -244 million yuan, a drop of 69.47%, with a net outflow of 312 million yuan in the third quarter [4]. Market Dynamics - Despite the overall decline, Shede Liquor's main product, T68, saw a sales increase of 16.46%, and e-commerce sales grew by 39.62% [10]. - However, the high-end liquor segment experienced a revenue drop of 23.96%, while ordinary liquor revenue increased by 16.46% [10]. - The overall gross margin fell to 64.73%, down 4.67 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin decreased to 12.69% [10]. Distribution Challenges - The company has seen a significant exit of distributors, with 461 leaving this year, surpassing the total for 2024 [2][9]. - As of the end of the third quarter, the total number of distributors was 2,554, a decrease of 109 from the previous year [15]. - Inventory levels have risen, with a balance of 5.677 billion yuan at the end of the third quarter, an increase of 460 million yuan since the beginning of the year [16]. Management and Strategy - Since becoming controlled by the Fosun Group in late 2020, Shede Liquor has experienced frequent management changes, with over 20 high-level personnel changes in four years [18]. - The company has shifted its strategic focus multiple times, from high-end liquor to mass-market expansion, leading to instability in its long-term strategy [19]. - The management has announced plans to focus on "de-stocking, stabilizing prices, and promoting sales," while also leveraging e-commerce and live retail channels [20]. Regulatory and ESG Concerns - The company has faced scrutiny from regulators regarding the rationale behind significant investments in expansion amid declining revenues and production capacity [7]. - There have been controversies surrounding land acquisition and compensation issues related to its expansion projects, raising questions about the company's ESG practices [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue, with Q3 2025 revenue at 1 billion yuan, down 15.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 30 million yuan, down 63.2% year-on-year. The revenue decline was greater than expected, attributed mainly to external environmental factors [6] - The company is actively managing channel inventory and has adjusted its resource distribution, linking to new channels and enhancing cost control, indicating potential for recovery as the external environment improves [6] - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 has been revised downwards, with expected net profits of 500 million yuan, 620 million yuan, and 830 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 43.3%, 24.1%, and 35.6% respectively [6] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.0%, and a net profit of 470 million yuan, down 29.4% year-on-year [6] - The Q3 revenue breakdown shows mid-to-high-end liquor revenue at 690 million yuan (down 23% year-on-year) and ordinary liquor revenue at 180 million yuan (up 18% year-on-year) [7] - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2025 was 62.1%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 2.9%, down 3.7 percentage points year-on-year [9] Cash Flow and Debt Management - As of the end of Q3 2025, the company had a contract liability balance of 110 million yuan, down 40 million yuan from the previous quarter, indicating significant cash flow pressure [8] - Sales cash receipts for Q3 were 920 million yuan, down 19.4% year-on-year, reflecting the challenges faced by distributors in collecting payments [8] Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 41.7 for 2025, 33.6 for 2026, and 24.8 for 2027 [6] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.49 yuan, 1.85 yuan, and 2.51 yuan respectively [11]

Core Viewpoint - Shede Liquor's Q3 2025 report shows a revenue of 3.702 billion yuan, with a net profit of 472 million yuan, indicating a narrowing decline compared to the first half of the year despite significant industry pressure [1] Group 1: Industry Challenges - The overall liquor industry is under significant pressure, with weak demand in key consumption scenarios such as business banquets and holiday sales, leading to high social inventory and downward pricing pressure [1][2] - The industry is undergoing a deep adjustment characterized by "supply clearing," shifting from scale expansion to value enhancement [2] Group 2: Company Strategies - Shede Liquor is implementing a strategy of price control and inventory reduction, maintaining stable pricing for core products despite industry-wide pricing pressures [2][3] - The company is enhancing operational efficiency through organizational restructuring, flat management, and cost control, resulting in an 8.81% decrease in operating costs and a 13.07% reduction in management expenses [3] Group 3: Product and Market Development - The launch of the low-alcohol product "Shede Zizai" has been successful, aligning with new consumption trends and achieving significant market interest [4] - E-commerce sales have grown significantly, with a 40% year-on-year increase, becoming a key driver of revenue growth [5] Group 4: Financial Performance and Market Sentiment - The company reported a 16.46% increase in ordinary liquor sales, contributing to a stable market presence during industry adjustments [5] - Institutional investors have shown increased confidence, with several funds significantly raising their holdings in Shede Liquor, indicating recognition of the company's long-term growth potential [6][7]

Summary of Shede Liquor Industry Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shede Liquor Industry - **Date**: November 1, 2025 Key Points Industry and Company Strategy - Shede Liquor adheres to four core strategies: aged liquor, multi-brand matrix, youth-oriented marketing, and internationalization [2][3][6] - Focus on high-end product structure, national product distribution, and brand internationalization without reducing market investment [2][3] - Implementation of a three-good pricing management system to stabilize prices and optimize channel costs [2][5] Financial Performance - As of Q3 2025, Shede Liquor reported revenue of 3.702 billion yuan and a net profit of 472 million yuan [3] - Significant growth in key products during the double festival season, with double-digit increases in sales and opening bottles [7] Market Dynamics - Positive performance in out-of-province markets, particularly in Shandong, with cities like Dezhou and Liaocheng showing over 50% growth year-on-year [9] - Strict control in the Henan market to maintain price stability, with expectations for gradual recovery in 2026 [10] Consumer Engagement and Marketing - Initiatives to engage younger demographics include establishing live streaming bases and expanding e-commerce efforts [4][5] - Launch of low-alcohol product "Shede Zizai" and innovative marketing strategies to attract new consumers [5][15] Inventory and Sales Management - Effective reduction of channel inventory through strict control of distributor shipments [8][22] - Anticipation of a healthier market state by the end of the year due to improved inventory management [8] Product Performance - Core products, especially premium offerings, saw approximately 50% growth in sales and opening amounts [13] - The T68 series outperformed other products, indicating strong consumer demand across various price segments [13] Future Outlook - The company expects challenges in the upcoming Spring Festival season but notes a gradual recovery in consumer confidence [11] - Emphasis on enhancing product quality without lowering prices to maintain brand value [18] E-commerce Strategy - E-commerce sales are expected to reach double-digit percentages, with a focus on reducing conflicts between online and offline sales [17] - Establishment of specialized teams to enhance e-commerce operations and capitalize on market opportunities [17] Distributor Management - The company has implemented a small and micro customer management project to support new distributors, particularly in weaker regions [20][21] - Stability among larger distributors remains intact, while smaller ones have been phased out due to performance volatility [19] Cost Management - Sales and management expenses have increased due to strategic investments and one-time costs, but overall efficiency is expected to improve [23] Long-term Incentives - Ongoing long-term incentive plans for employees, including stock options and employee shareholding programs [24] Regional Challenges - The decline in the Sichuan market is attributed to high inventory levels, prompting proactive inventory reduction measures [25] This summary encapsulates the key insights and strategic directions of Shede Liquor as discussed in the conference call, highlighting the company's resilience and proactive measures in a challenging market environment.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue of 3.702 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.00%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 472 million yuan, down 29.43% [1] - The company is focusing on a long-term strategy of "strong sales, promoting opening bottles, and destocking" to maintain healthy channel development, with expectations for profit margins to enter a slow recovery phase in 2026 [4] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.88% year-on-year, and a net profit of 29 million yuan, down 63.18% [1] - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 64.73%, down 3.17 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a decline in profitability due to structural shifts and increased costs [3] - The company expects net profits to reach 391 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 13.1%, and further increase to 569 million yuan in 2026 and 838 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 45.4% and 47.3% respectively [4][5] Product and Market Analysis - The main revenue from liquor in Q3 2025 was 867 million yuan, a decrease of 17.39% year-on-year, with mid-to-high-end liquor sales declining by 23.43% [2] - The company is launching new products to capture the banquet market, including the "Celebration Edition" of its flagship product, aiming to boost sales [2] - E-commerce sales showed significant growth, increasing by 71.41% year-on-year, while wholesale and agency sales declined by 23.38% [2] Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 4.484 billion yuan in 2025, with a decline of 16.3% year-on-year, followed by a slight recovery in 2026 and 2027 [5] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to be 53 for 2025, decreasing to 25 by 2027, indicating a potential for valuation improvement as profits recover [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [3] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance was under pressure due to external factors, with revenue and net profit declining by 15.9% and 63.2% year-on-year, respectively. However, inventory reduction is expected to approach completion by the end of 2025, and the company is focusing on product development and channel expansion, particularly in the low-end and e-commerce segments, which are expected to support a recovery in performance [1][6][7] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.7 billion yuan and a net profit of 470 million yuan, representing year-on-year declines of 17.0% and 29.4%, respectively [6] - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.0 billion yuan and a net profit of 30 million yuan, with cash receipts of 920 million yuan, reflecting a 19.4% decline year-on-year [6][7] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 62.1%, with a net profit margin of 2.9%, both showing slight declines compared to the previous year [6][7] Product and Channel Performance - The company experienced a deeper decline in mid-to-high-end liquor sales, while low-end liquor sales showed relative strength, with revenue from low-end products increasing by 17.8% year-on-year [6] - E-commerce sales continued to thrive, with a year-on-year increase of 71.4% in Q3 2025, indicating a positive trend in this channel [6] - The company is expected to continue expanding its product lines and enhancing its presence in rural banquet markets, which may gradually yield positive results [1][6] Financial Projections - The company has adjusted its earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025 to 1.52 yuan, with projections of 1.94 yuan for 2026 and 2.39 yuan for 2027 [1][6] - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at 5.068 billion yuan, with a forecasted decline of 5% year-on-year, followed by modest growth in subsequent years [2][14]