随着全国各地2025年高考的落幕,升学宴市场即将迎来高峰期,各大白酒厂商的营销大战也已花式开启。 舍得酒业今年突破传统营销范式,在升学宴买赠促销等政策的基础上,精准切中Z世代家庭的核心诉求,携 手得到App创始人罗振宇,开展了一场备受关注的青春成长对话。 6月10日,来自成都、遂宁、绵阳等地240位刚结束高考的学子及其家长走进沱牌舍得文化旅游区,共同参 与这场由舍得酒业与得到APP联合打造的"青春逐梦,需要舍得"舍得酒成长季——罗振宇"读书日"分享会 主题演讲活动。现场,围绕升学规划与成长选择等核心议题,罗振宇与家长和学子们共同探讨长期主义下 的青春成长路径。 据了解,本次演讲的完整版视频还将于6月20日上线得到APP,将持续触达更广泛的学子与家长群体。同时, 依托得到App平台庞大的用户群体,舍得酒业的"舍得智慧"与"长期主义"理念,也会在这一高价值人群中实 现更深层次渗透,加速品牌认知深化与价值共鸣的沉淀。 此次舍得酒业推出的"升学宴,要舍得"系列活动,除了"罗振宇成长演讲"这一福利之外,还有多重超值好礼 值得期待。具体来讲,6月1日至8月31日,购买舍得酒系列产品与舍之道系列产品,还有机会解锁上海5天4 ...

证券研究报告 舍得酒业 (600702 CH) 2025 年中期策略会速递— 舍得酒业：渠道减负，保持定力 | 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 6 月 | 05 日│中国内地 | 饮料 | 6 月 4 日舍得酒业出席我们组织的 2025 年中期策略会，会上公司对近期经 营情况、未来发展和行业方向分享观点，提出公司自 24 年以来重点关注渠 道健康，坚守长期主义，库存去化取得阶段性成效，期待公司触底破局。 舍之道、T68 等表现出色，库存去化取得阶段性成效 公司以长期健康稳健发展为主。从近期经营看，公司 Q1 业绩有所承压，但 五一期间品味舍得动销保持平稳，现阶段品味舍得重点聚焦升学宴；大众价 位舍之道、沱牌 T68 等产品实现增长，针对下沉市场争取增量。从渠道结 构看，截至 25Q1 大商占比依然较高，渠道库存良性的经销商数量过半（良 性库存标准 2-3 个月备货）。从库存表现看，从去年开始加大库存去化力度， 我们预计今年库存压力或相对较小；同时公司 25 年依然坚持去库存+市场 跟踪，针对性提高渠道健康程度。 费用端表现趋于稳定， ...

舍得酒业(600702) 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 14 日 短期业绩承压，股权激励提振信心 ——舍得酒业更新报告 投资要点 ❑ 产品结构承压，关注政商务消费需求恢复 1 ）利润端：25Q1 白酒收入 14.42 亿元，同比-26.5%，或因渠道库存消化，蓄力 后续健康发展。25Q1 公司毛利率/净利率同比-4.8/ -4.2pcts 至 69.4%/21.9%。 25Q1 管理费用率同比-0.01pct 至 7.89%，未来有望继续下降。 销售费用率同比 +3.03pct 至 19.36% ，我们认为或因春节期间市场费用投放力度加大。 2）资产端：应收账款及票据 4.95 亿元（同比-19%，下同），存货 53.51 亿元 （+18%），应付票据及账款 12.59 亿元（+22%），合同负债 2.06 亿（-12%），24 年末为 1.65 亿元。 3）现金流：销售收现 16.23 亿（-15%），经营性净现金流为 2.24 亿（+107%）。 ❑ 品味舍得短期承压，电商渠道增速较快 1）分产品：25Q1 中高档酒/普通酒实现收入 12.34 亿元/2.08 亿元，同比- 28.46%/-12.59 ...

公司发布一季报，2025Q1 公司实现营业总收入15.76 亿元/同比-25.1%，归母净利润3.46 亿元/同 比-37.1%。 2025Q1 销售收现16.23 亿元/同比-15.3%/降幅小于收入端，经营性现金流量净额2.24 亿元/同比 +106.8%，合同负债环比+0.41 亿元。 再推股权激励，解锁目标具有较强激励性。3 月27 日公司发布限制性股票激励计划，拟向168 名激励对 象授予股票数量不超过203.66 万股，占公司总股本0.61%，授予价格为28.78 元/股。考核条件为2025- 2027 年公司、个人业绩达标，解除限售比例为40%/30%/30%。其中公司层面考核条件为以2024 年为基 期，2025-2027 年收入增长率不低于20%/36%/55%，或净利润增长率不低于164%/231%/309%，解锁目 标具有较强激励性，彰显公司员工进取态度和发展信心。 风险提示：白酒需求恢复不及预期，增投费用下利润率承压，渠道库存增加等。 2025Q1 毛利率环比提升，渠道结构得到优化。分产品看，2025Q1 中高档酒收入12.34 亿元/同 比-28.5%，普通酒收入2.08 亿元/同比 ...

利润端判断达成概率更高，24 年公司追加较高费用帮助消化库存，今年销售费用、管理费用等均具备 较多优化空间。 Q1 高基数下报表继续出清减负，舍之道、沱牌T68 维持增长。Q1 在去年报表高基数下收入同降 25.1%，继续出清减负。分产品看，Q1 中高档/普通酒收入分别同降28.5%/12.6%，结合渠道反馈，核心 单品品味舍得控货稳价、正常放量，未大规模压货，以消化库存为主。大众价位带舍之道、T68 受益乡 镇宴席市场表现好维持增长，舍之道全国铺货招商持续推进。分区域看，省内四川Q1 收入4.9 亿元，同 降9.0%相对平稳，省外其他区域收入9.5 亿元，同降33.3%下滑幅度更大，其中河南、山东下滑明显， 深度调整后有望趋于稳定，东北基础较好下滑幅度不大。Q1 经销商净减少42 家至2621 家，判断主要系 渠道端结构优化所致。 产品结构下移拖累毛利，短期内利润端继续承压，现金流相对稳健。公司Q1毛利率下滑4.8pcts 至 69.4%，判断主要系短期产品结构下移所致。费用率方面，Q1 营业税金率同比下降2.6pcts，销售费用率 提升3.0pcts 至19.4%正常投放，管理费用率7.9%同比持平，因此 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company [1][11] Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in Q1 2025, with revenue at 1.58 billion yuan, down 25.1% year-on-year, and net profit at 350 million yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year [4] - Despite short-term pressures, the company is expected to focus on its core products and improve in the long term, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 600 million, 680 million, and 760 million yuan respectively [8] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2023A: 7,081 million yuan - 2024A: 5,357 million yuan (down 24.3% YoY) - 2025E: 5,802 million yuan (up 8.3% YoY) - 2026E: 6,428 million yuan (up 10.8% YoY) - 2027E: 7,090 million yuan (up 10.3% YoY) [7] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2023A: 1,771 million yuan - 2024A: 346 million yuan (down 80.5% YoY) - 2025E: 600 million yuan (up 73.6% YoY) - 2026E: 678 million yuan (up 13.0% YoY) - 2027E: 757 million yuan (up 11.6% YoY) [7] - **Profitability Ratios**: - Gross Margin: 74.5% in 2023A, expected to decline to 63.2% in 2025E - Net Margin: 25.0% in 2023A, expected to rise to 10.3% in 2025E [7][8] - **Valuation Ratios**: - P/E Ratio: 10.7 in 2023A, expected to rise to 31.6 in 2025E - P/B Ratio: 2.6 in 2023A, expected to remain around 2.6 in 2025E [7][8] Market and Operational Insights - The company’s high-end liquor revenue in Q1 2025 was 1.23 billion yuan, down 28% YoY, while low-end liquor revenue was 210 million yuan, down 13% YoY [8] - E-commerce channels showed growth, with revenue of 200 million yuan in Q1 2025, up 37% YoY [8] - The company’s total market capitalization is 19 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 333 million shares [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" [7][5][6] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 1.576 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 25.1%, and a net profit of 346 million yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin improved quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 69.4% in Q1 2025, although it decreased by 4.9 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company is maintaining active expense investments during the peak season to promote sales, with a net profit margin of 22.0%, down 4.18 percentage points year-on-year [3] - A stock incentive plan was announced, granting up to 2.0366 million shares to 168 individuals, with performance targets set for 2025-2027 [4] - Revenue and profit are expected to gradually improve as the company enters a low base period in Q2 2025, with projected revenues of 5.08 billion, 5.38 billion, and 5.76 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 1.576 billion yuan, a decrease of 25.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 346 million yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year [1] - The revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 1.234 billion yuan, down 28.5% year-on-year, while ordinary liquor revenue was 208 million yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year [2] - The company reported a net profit margin of 22.0%, down 4.18 percentage points year-on-year, with a significant improvement in operating cash flow, which increased by 106.8% year-on-year to 224 million yuan [3] Market and Channel Analysis - The company has optimized its channel structure, with a total of 2,621 distributors as of the end of Q1 2025, a decrease of 42 from the end of 2024 [2] - E-commerce channel revenue increased by 36.7% year-on-year to 205 million yuan, reflecting a trend towards online sales in the liquor market [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in revenue and performance as it enters a low base period in Q2 2025, with projected revenues of 5.08 billion, 5.38 billion, and 5.76 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][6] - The stock incentive plan aims to motivate employees with performance targets that require significant revenue and profit growth over the next three years [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" [7][5][19]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 1.576 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 25.1%, and a net profit of 346 million yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin improved quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 69.4% in Q1 2025, although it decreased by 4.9 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company is maintaining active expenditure during the peak season to promote sales, with a sales expense ratio increasing by 3.03 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - A stock incentive plan was announced, granting up to 2.0366 million shares to 168 individuals, with performance targets set for 2025-2027 [4]. - The company expects a turning point in revenue and performance as it enters a low base period in Q2 2025, with projected revenues of 5.08 billion yuan in 2025, a decrease of 5.1% year-on-year, and net profits of 422 million yuan, an increase of 21.9% year-on-year [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 1.576 billion yuan, down 25.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 346 million yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year [1]. - The revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 1.234 billion yuan, down 28.5% year-on-year, while ordinary liquor revenue was 208 million yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year [2]. - The company reported a net profit margin of 22.0%, down 4.18 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Market and Channel Analysis - The company’s provincial revenue was 494 million yuan, down 9.0% year-on-year, while out-of-province revenue was 949 million yuan, down 33.2% year-on-year [2]. - The e-commerce channel saw revenue of 205 million yuan, an increase of 36.7% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in online sales [2]. Future Outlook - The company maintains its previous profit forecast, expecting revenues of 5.08 billion yuan in 2025, 5.375 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.756 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 422 million yuan, 451 million yuan, and 508 million yuan [5][6]. - The stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 45.0 for 2025 and 42.1 for 2026, maintaining a "Neutral" rating [5][6].

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