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盐津铺子(002847)公司简评报告:核心品类持续放量 多渠道快速发力
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-07 08:36
渠道结构变化致毛利率略降,费用管控良好。公司2024年毛利率为30.69%(同比-2.85pct),2025Q1毛 利率为28.47%(同比-3.63pct)。毛利率略有下降,主因公司渠道结构变化,电商以及零食量贩渠道占 比提升。2024年销售和管理费用率分别为12.5%(同比-0.04pct)、4.13%(同比-0.31pct)。2025Q1销售 和管理费用率分别为11.24%(同比-1.76pct)、3.44%(同比-0.79pct),费用管控良好。随着产品结构 的优化,魔芋品类及蒟蒻、蛋皇等高毛利产品的快速增长,以及高势能渠道、海外渠道等的发力,公司 盈利能力有望提升。 投资建议:公司魔芋、鹌鹑蛋等核心品类高速增长,各渠道持续深耕。考虑到原材料成本以及营销费用 的影响,我们调整2025-2026年盈利预测,新增2027年盈利预测,预计2025-2027年归母净利润分别为 8.47/10.46/12.71亿元(2025-2026年前值分别为8.7/10.71亿元),对应EPS分别为3.1/3.83/4.66元(2025- 2026年前值分别为3.17/3.9元),对应当前股价PE分别为28/23/19倍, ...
盐津铺子(002847):魔芋单品快速放量 品类品牌战略初显成效
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-04-29 02:48
Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 5.304 billion yuan in FY24, representing a year-on-year increase of 28.89%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 640 million yuan, up 26.53% year-on-year [1] - The company is experiencing significant growth in the konjac product category, with a strong overseas expansion strategy [2][3] - The gross margin has faced pressure, but cost control measures have improved [4][5] - The company has initiated a brand strategy focusing on "Big Demon King" and "Egg Emperor," which is showing early signs of success [6] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upward, indicating positive growth expectations [7] Financial Performance - FY24 revenue breakdown: spicy snacks (1.962 billion yuan, +32.36%), baked potato products (1.158 billion yuan, +17.31%), deep-sea snacks (675 million yuan, +9.10%), egg snacks (580 million yuan, +81.87%), nuts (484 million yuan, +81.50%), konjac jelly pudding (301 million yuan, +39.10%), and other income (144 million yuan, -36.09%) [2] - Q1 2025 revenue reached 1.537 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.69%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 178 million yuan, up 11.64% [1] Product and Channel Analysis - The konjac product line, particularly the "Big Demon King" brand, has driven significant growth, with a record-breaking single product sales milestone [2] - Revenue by channel in FY24: direct sales (188 million yuan, -43.72%), distribution and other channels (3.956 billion yuan, +34.01%), and e-commerce (1.159 billion yuan, +39.95%) [2] - The company aims to replicate its success in overseas markets, with over 80% of international sales currently coming from Thailand [3] Cost and Profitability - Gross margins for FY24, Q4 2024, and Q1 2025 were 30.69%, 27.62%, and 28.47%, respectively, reflecting a decline due to the rapid growth of lower-margin channels [4] - The company has improved its cost control, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios showing a decrease in FY24 compared to the previous year [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company has launched a category brand strategy, focusing on high-potential products like konjac and quail eggs, aiming for a dual-driven growth model of "products + channels" [6] - The strategic transformation has already led to the development of two major hit products, indicating a successful execution of the brand strategy [6] Investment Outlook - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised upwards to 6.594 billion yuan and 7.968 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 9.431 billion yuan [7] - EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 have also been increased to 3.10 yuan and 3.86 yuan, respectively, with a new estimate of 4.52 yuan for 2027 [7]