Group 1 - The SIAL International Food Exhibition recently held in Shanghai attracted over 5,000 exhibitors from 75 countries and regions, showcasing the latest trends and products in the food and beverage industry [1] - Salted Fish, a leading domestic snack food company, presented several new sweet products at the exhibition, including collaborations with various brands [1] - The Chinese baking market is expected to see a trend towards combining health and taste by 2025, with a shift from "delicious" to "healthy eating" [1] Group 2 - The new products showcased by Salted Fish incorporate multiple technological innovations, such as a new generation of toast production lines and upgraded equipment to enhance flavor and texture [2] - In 2023, Salted Fish initiated a category brand strategy, establishing three business units focused on spicy, sweet, and healthy products, resulting in significant revenue growth [4] - The company achieved a revenue of 5.304 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 28.89%, and reported a revenue of 1.537 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, a 25.69% increase compared to the same period last year [4]

渠道结构变化致毛利率略降，费用管控良好。公司2024年毛利率为30.69%（同比-2.85pct），2025Q1毛 利率为28.47%（同比-3.63pct）。毛利率略有下降，主因公司渠道结构变化，电商以及零食量贩渠道占 比提升。2024年销售和管理费用率分别为12.5%（同比-0.04pct）、4.13%（同比-0.31pct）。2025Q1销售 和管理费用率分别为11.24%（同比-1.76pct）、3.44%（同比-0.79pct），费用管控良好。随着产品结构 的优化，魔芋品类及蒟蒻、蛋皇等高毛利产品的快速增长，以及高势能渠道、海外渠道等的发力，公司 盈利能力有望提升。 投资建议：公司魔芋、鹌鹑蛋等核心品类高速增长，各渠道持续深耕。考虑到原材料成本以及营销费用 的影响，我们调整2025-2026年盈利预测，新增2027年盈利预测，预计2025-2027年归母净利润分别为 8.47/10.46/12.71亿元（2025-2026年前值分别为8.7/10.71亿元），对应EPS分别为3.1/3.83/4.66元（2025- 2026年前值分别为3.17/3.9元），对应当前股价PE分别为28/23/19倍， ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月07日 公 司 简 评 食 品 饮 料 [Table_invest] 买入（维持） 报告原因：业绩点评 ➢ 风险提示：国内市场需求不及预期、食品安全风险、原材料价格波动风险。 [盈利预测与估值简表 Table_profits] | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主营收入(百万元) | 5,303.93 | 6,803.74 | 8,263.81 | 9,755.62 | | 同比增速(%) | 28.89% | 28.28% | 21.46% | 18.05% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 639.95 | 846.85 | 1,046.18 | 1,271.18 | | 同比增速(%) | 26.53% | 32.33% | 23.54% | 21.51% | | EPS（元/股） | 2.35 | 3.10 | 3.83 | 4.66 | | 市盈率（P/E） | 37.22 | 28.12 | 22.77 | 18.74 | | 市净率（P/ ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月07日 公 司 简 评 食 品 饮 料 [Table_invest] 买入（维持） 报告原因：业绩点评 [盐津铺子 Table_NewTitle]（002847）：核心品类持续放 量，多渠道快速发力 ——公司简评报告 [table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 风险提示：国内市场需求不及预期、食品安全风险、原材料价格波动风险。 [数据日期 Table_cominfo] 2025/05/06 收盘价 87.30 总股本(万股) 27,282 流通A股/B股(万股) 24,473/0 资产负债率(%) 46.81% 市净率(倍) 12.07 [盈利预测与估值简表 Table_profits] | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主营收入(百万元) | 5,303.93 | 6,803.74 | 8,263.81 | 9,755.62 | | 同比增速(%) | 28.89% | 28.28% | 21.46% | 18.05% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | ...

2025 年 5 月 6 日 公司研究 渠道结构变化影响毛利率，费用端持续优化。毛利率方面，2024 全年/24Q4/25Q1 公司毛利率分别为 30.69%/27.62%/28.47%，25Q1 同比-3.64pcts，环比 +0.85pcts。25Q1 毛利率同比下滑主要系渠道结构变化，低毛利率的零食量贩 等渠道收入占比提高。费用端，2024 全年/24Q4/25Q1 销售费用率分别为 12.50%/11.54%/11.24%，25Q1 同比-1.76pcts，环比-0.30pcts. 2024 全年 /24Q4/25Q1 管理费用率分别为 4.13%/4.47%/3.44%，25Q1 同比-0.79pcts， 环比-1.03pcts。主要系组织架构调整下经营效率提升，带来费率的下降。综合 来看，2024 全年/24Q4/25Q1 公司归母净利率分别为 12.07%/10.18%/11.59%， 25Q1 同比-1.46pcts，环比+1.41pcts。 盈利预测、估值与评级：我们基本维持 2024-2025 年归母净利润预测为 8.55/10.25 亿元，新增 2027 年归母净利润预测为 12.25 ...

投资要点： 魔芋势能向上，海外市场打开收入空间。展望后续，我们认为公司在各个方面皆有强化。组织端，公司 根据六大品类的味型，成立了辣味、甜味、健康三个品类事业部，前后拉通了生产、产品和品牌，利于 产品聚焦。供应链端，公司积极布局上游原料，魔芋拥有从一产开始的完备供应链，且2025 年预计将 在国内和泰国继续进行产线建设。收入端，魔芋品类进行了全渠道、全球布局，国内"大魔王"势能向 上，助力公司定量流通渠道发展；海外市场将以品牌"Mowo"打通主流销售渠道，公司期望3-5 年再造 一个盐津铺子。 两大单品快速放量，品类品牌支撑增长。分品类来看，2024 年公司辣卤零食/烘焙薯类/深海零食/蛋类 零食/果干坚果/蒟蒻果冻布丁分别实现营业收入19.62/11.58/6.75/5.80/4.84/3.01 亿元， 同比 +32.4%/+17.3%/+9.1%/+81.9%/+81.5%/+39.1%，其中辣卤零食中的魔芋制品营收8.4 亿元，同比 +76.1%，魔芋及鹌鹑蛋两大单品实现高速成长。2024 年以来公司启动品类品牌战略，"大魔王"麻酱素 毛肚上市16 个月单月月销破亿；"蛋皇"鹌鹑蛋打通高势能渠道，定义高 ...

Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 5.304 billion yuan in FY24, representing a year-on-year increase of 28.89%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 640 million yuan, up 26.53% year-on-year [1] - The company is experiencing significant growth in the konjac product category, with a strong overseas expansion strategy [2][3] - The gross margin has faced pressure, but cost control measures have improved [4][5] - The company has initiated a brand strategy focusing on "Big Demon King" and "Egg Emperor," which is showing early signs of success [6] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upward, indicating positive growth expectations [7] Financial Performance - FY24 revenue breakdown: spicy snacks (1.962 billion yuan, +32.36%), baked potato products (1.158 billion yuan, +17.31%), deep-sea snacks (675 million yuan, +9.10%), egg snacks (580 million yuan, +81.87%), nuts (484 million yuan, +81.50%), konjac jelly pudding (301 million yuan, +39.10%), and other income (144 million yuan, -36.09%) [2] - Q1 2025 revenue reached 1.537 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.69%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 178 million yuan, up 11.64% [1] Product and Channel Analysis - The konjac product line, particularly the "Big Demon King" brand, has driven significant growth, with a record-breaking single product sales milestone [2] - Revenue by channel in FY24: direct sales (188 million yuan, -43.72%), distribution and other channels (3.956 billion yuan, +34.01%), and e-commerce (1.159 billion yuan, +39.95%) [2] - The company aims to replicate its success in overseas markets, with over 80% of international sales currently coming from Thailand [3] Cost and Profitability - Gross margins for FY24, Q4 2024, and Q1 2025 were 30.69%, 27.62%, and 28.47%, respectively, reflecting a decline due to the rapid growth of lower-margin channels [4] - The company has improved its cost control, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios showing a decrease in FY24 compared to the previous year [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company has launched a category brand strategy, focusing on high-potential products like konjac and quail eggs, aiming for a dual-driven growth model of "products + channels" [6] - The strategic transformation has already led to the development of two major hit products, indicating a successful execution of the brand strategy [6] Investment Outlook - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised upwards to 6.594 billion yuan and 7.968 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 9.431 billion yuan [7] - EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 have also been increased to 3.10 yuan and 3.86 yuan, respectively, with a new estimate of 4.52 yuan for 2027 [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][9] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 5.304 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 28.89%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 640 million yuan, up 26.53% year-on-year [4][5] - The company has launched a category brand strategy, with significant growth in key products such as "Mowon" and "Egg Emperor," which have become category champions [5][8] - The company is expanding its overseas channels, with overseas revenue reaching 62.74 million yuan in 2024, a substantial increase from 314,900 yuan in 2023 [5][8] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.443 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.96%, and a net profit of 147 million yuan, up 33.66% year-on-year [4] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.537 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.69%, with a net profit of 178 million yuan, up 11.64% year-on-year [4] - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 30.69%, down 2.85 percentage points year-on-year, and for Q1 2025, it was 28.47%, down 3.63 percentage points year-on-year [5][8] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 6.795 billion yuan in 2025, 8.252 billion yuan in 2026, and 9.539 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 853 million yuan, 1.053 billion yuan, and 1.240 billion yuan respectively [7][9] - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.13 yuan, 3.86 yuan, and 4.54 yuan respectively [7][9] Market Performance - The company's stock has outperformed the market, with a 12-month performance of 78.3% compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which has only increased by 7.3% [3]