1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall fundamentals of PVC are bearish. Supply pressure has increased this week, and production is expected to increase next week. Current demand may remain sluggish, and the PVC2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5413 - 5689. [8][9] - The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the slow recovery of domestic demand. [13] - The bullish factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. The bearish factors are the rebound in overall supply pressure, high inventory levels with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand. [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply - side**: In February 2026, PVC production was 1.985126 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.60%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 80.92%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. Calcium carbide - based enterprise production was 366,490 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.62%, and ethylene - based enterprise production was 128,274 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.10%. Supply pressure increased this week, and maintenance is expected to decrease next week with a slight increase in production scheduling. [8] - **Demand - side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 45.96%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3 percentage points, below the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 37.39%, a month - on - month increase of 0.04 percentage points, below the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 41.2%, a month - on - month increase of 2 percentage points, below the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 59.29%, a month - on - month increase of 0.86 percentage points, below the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 70.95%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.88 percentage points, above the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are not competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish. [9] - **Cost - side**: The profit of calcium carbide - based production was - 34.85 yuan/ton, turning from profit to loss with a month - on - month decrease of 81.00%, below the historical average. The profit of ethylene - based production was - 777.75 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 79.40%, below the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,655.67 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 0.00%, below the historical average. Production scheduling may face pressure. [9] - **Basis**: On March 30, the price of East China SG - 5 was 5,650 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 99 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price (bullish). [9] - **Inventory**: The in - factory inventory was 338,535 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.35%. The calcium carbide - based factory inventory was 255,974 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.56%. The ethylene - based factory inventory was 82,561 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.41%. The social inventory was 600,210 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.68%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 5.6 days, a month - on - month decrease of 6.66% (neutral). [9] - **Market**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below MA20 (neutral). [9] - **Main positions**: The main positions are net short, and short positions are increasing (bearish). [9] - **Expectations**: The cost of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based production is weakening, and the overall cost is weakening. Supply pressure has increased this week, and production is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, and current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics. The PVC2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5413 - 5689. [9] 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report provides detailed data on yesterday's PVC market, including the number of registered warehouse receipts, spot benchmark prices, futures closing prices, and some monthly spreads. For example, the DCE warehouse receipts decreased by 10,369, and the price of East China SG - 5 remained unchanged. [16] 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Basis trend**: The report shows the historical basis trend of PVC, the market price in East China, and the closing price of the main contract. [22] - **Price and volume trends**: It presents the price and trading volume trends of the PVC futures main contract in 2026, as well as the changes in the positions of the top 5 and 20 seats. [25] - **Spread analysis**: It shows the historical spread trends of the main contracts of 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 in 2024 and 2025. [28] 3.4 PVC Fundamentals - **Calcium carbide - based raw materials**: It includes the price trends of semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda, as well as their cost - profit, operating rates, production, and inventory situations. For example, the price trend of semi - coke in Shenmu from 2022 - 2026 is presented. [31][34][36][38] - **PVC supply trends**: It shows the capacity utilization rates of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based production, production profits, daily and weekly production, and maintenance volumes from 2018 - 2026. For example, the calcium carbide - based weekly capacity utilization rate trends from 2018 - 2026 are provided. [42][44] - **Demand trends**: It includes the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rates of PVC. It also shows the relationship between PVC demand and real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area, as well as some macro - economic indicators such as social financing scale increment, M2 increment, and local government new special bonds. For example, the daily sales volume of PVC traders in the East China region (excluding Shandong) from 2020 - 2026 is presented. [48][51][56] - **Inventory situation**: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based factory inventories, social inventories, and production enterprise inventory days from 2019 - 2026. [60] - **Ethylene - based situation**: It includes the import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and the price differences of ethylene - based FOB and vinyl chloride import from 2018 - 2026. [62] - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: It provides the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of PVC in 2025 and 2026, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, import, and supply - demand differences. [64]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC increased this week. Next week, it is expected that the number of maintenance will decrease and the scheduled production will increase slightly. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, but the current demand may remain sluggish. PVC2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5413 - 5689. The fundamentals are bearish [8][9]. - The positive factors include the resumption of supply, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. The negative factors are the rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In February 2026, PVC production was 1.985126 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.60%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 80.92%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide - based enterprises was 366,490 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.62%, and the production of ethylene - based enterprises was 128,274 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.10%. Supply pressure increased this week, and it is expected that maintenance will decrease next week with a slight increase in scheduled production [8]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream operating rate was 45.96%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rates of downstream profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin were 37.39% (a month - on - month increase of 0.04 percentage points), 41.2% (a month - on - month increase of 2 percentage points), 59.29% (a month - on - month increase of 0.86 percentage points), and 70.95% (a month - on - month decrease of 2.88 percentage points) respectively. The shipping cost is expected to rise, and the domestic PVC export price is not competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [9]. - **Cost**: The profit of calcium carbide - based production was - 34.85 yuan/ton, turning from profit to loss with a month - on - month decrease of 81.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene - based production was - 777.75 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 79.40%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,655.67 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 0.00%, lower than the historical average. Scheduled production may face pressure [9]. - **Basis**: On March 30, the price of East China SG - 5 was 5,650 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 99 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is bullish [9]. - **Inventory**: The in - factory inventory was 338,535 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.35%. The calcium carbide - based factory inventory was 255,974 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.56%, and the ethylene - based factory inventory was 82,561 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.41%. The social inventory was 600,210 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.68%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 5.6 days, a month - on - month decrease of 6.66%. It is neutral [9]. - **Market**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below MA20. It is neutral [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions increased. It is bearish [9]. - **Expectation**: The cost of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based production is weakening, and the overall cost is weakening. The supply pressure increased this week, and it is expected that the scheduled production will increase next week. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics. PVC2605 will fluctuate in the range of 5413 - 5689 [9]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - **Yesterday's Market Data**: The registered warehouse receipt quantity, spot benchmark price, futures closing price, and their changes are presented in detail in the report, including data on the Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, East China SG - 5, and various price indicators. There are also data on partial inter - month price differences and basis [16][19]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report shows the historical basis trend of PVC, including the relationship between the basis, PVC East China market price, and the main contract closing price [22]. - **Price and Volume Trends**: The report presents the price and trading volume trends of PVC futures in 2026, including the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and moving averages (MA10, MA5, MA20, MA60, MA120). It also shows the changes in the positions of the top 5 and top 20 seats [25]. - **Spread Analysis**: The report shows the historical spread trends of the main contracts, such as the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread from 2024 to 2025 [28]. 3.4 PVC Fundamentals - **Calcium Carbide - Based**: It includes the price, cost, profit, operating rate, inventory, and production of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, and the cost - profit situation of the chlor - alkali industry. There are also data on the capacity utilization rate, profit, and production of PVC produced by the calcium carbide method [31][34][36][38][42]. - **Demand Trend**: It includes the daily sales volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and the operating rates of profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin. It also shows the investment, construction, new construction, sales, and completion data of the real estate industry, as well as the social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment data [47][51][56][58]. - **Inventory**: It includes the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - based factory inventory, ethylene - based factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [60]. - **Ethylene - Based**: It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of the ethylene - based method, and vinyl chloride import spread [62]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the monthly supply - demand situation of PVC from 2025 to 2026, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, import, and supply - demand difference [64].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of soda ash is showing a downward trend with enterprise maintenance, but the overall supply remains abundant. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at the highest level in the same period in history, indicating a bearish outlook [2]. - The basis is -7 yuan, with the futures price at a premium to the spot price, showing a neutral situation [2]. - The national inventory of soda ash in plants is 185.19 million tons, an increase of 2.22% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][31]. - The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, indicating a bearish trend [2]. - The main positions are net short, and the short positions are increasing, which is bearish [2]. - Due to the boost from the cost side, soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1229 yuan/ton to 1207 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.79%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe decreased from 1205 yuan/ton to 1200 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.41%. The main basis decreased from - 24 yuan/ton to - 7 yuan/ton, a decline of 70.83% [5]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. 3.3 Soda Ash Production Profit - The profit of heavy soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process in North China is - 94.20 yuan/ton, and the profit of the co - production process in East China is 135 yuan/ton [14]. 3.4 Soda Ash Operating Rate and Production - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 81.87% [17]. - The weekly production of soda ash is 77.54 million tons, including 40.74 million tons of heavy soda ash, reaching a historical high [20]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 100.23% [23]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 14.49 million tons, and the operating rate is 70.12% [26]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national inventory of soda ash in plants is 185.19 million tons, an increase of 2.22% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [31]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [32]. 3.8 Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: The cold - repair of downstream float glass is less, and the production remains stable. The conflict between the US and Iran boosts the bullish sentiment in the market [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The operating load of the second - phase production line of Yuangxing Energy has increased, and there is no expectation of new maintenance, so the production is expected to remain at a high level. The production of photovoltaic glass, the downstream of heavy soda ash, has decreased, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4]. - **Main Logic**: The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The iron ore 2605 contract is expected to experience high - level oscillations. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are respectively oscillatory, oscillatory, and weakly oscillatory. The core logic is that positive factors have reappeared, supporting the high - level operation of ore prices, but the fundamentals of iron ore have not changed substantially, and the overvalued ore prices are still prone to pressure [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term trend is oscillatory, the medium - term trend is oscillatory, and the intraday trend is weakly oscillatory. The overall view is high - level oscillation. The core logic is that positive factors have reappeared, leading to the high - level operation of ore prices [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Overseas conflicts persist, causing short - term supply disruptions and supporting the high - level operation of ore prices. The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weakly stable, with limited inventory reduction. Steel mills are actively producing, improving ore demand, but the industrial contradictions in the steel market remain unresolved, and the subsequent incremental space is limited. Domestic port arrivals are rising from a low level, and miners' shipments are continuously increasing. According to the shipping schedule, subsequent arrivals are expected to be stable, and domestic ore supply is recovering, so the ore supply maintains stable operation. Although positive factors support the high - level operation of ore prices, the fundamentals of iron ore have not changed substantially, and the overvalued ore prices are still prone to pressure. The subsequent trend will continue to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to steel prices and Australian ore shipments [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, this week's 05 contract showed an upward trend, with the opening price on Monday at 8,550 yuan/ton and the closing price on Friday at 8,625 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.88%. It is expected that next week, the supply-side production schedule will increase but remain at a low level, while demand recovery will also be at a low level, and cost support will rise. The disk is expected to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment [4][5]. - For polysilicon, this week's 05 contract showed a downward trend, with the opening price on Monday at 38,180 yuan/ton and the closing price on Friday at 35,680 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 6.54%. It is expected that next week, the supply-side production schedule will continue to increase, and the overall demand will show a continuous decline. Cost support will remain stable. The disk is expected to have a bullish oscillatory adjustment [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: This week, the industrial silicon supply was 78,000 tons, remaining flat compared to the previous week. The sample enterprise output was 40,760 tons, a 1.17% increase. The expected monthly operating rate is 44.46%, a 6.44 - percentage - point increase from last month's 38.02% [4]. - **Demand**: This week, the industrial silicon demand was 68,000 tons, a 1.44% decrease. In the polysilicon sector, the inventory was 332,000 tons, higher than the historical average. In the organic silicon sector, the inventory was 58,500 tons, lower than the historical average, and the production profit was 2,430 yuan/ton. In the aluminum alloy sector, the inventory of aluminum alloy ingots was 44,900 tons, higher than the historical average [5]. - **Cost**: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 9,769.7 yuan/ton, remaining flat. The cost support increased during the dry season [5]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 560,000 tons, a 1.27% increase. The sample enterprise inventory was 191,100 tons, a 3.38% decrease. The main port inventory was 134,000 tons, a 1.47% decrease [5]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the polysilicon output was 19,400 tons, a 2.10% increase. The predicted production schedule for March is 84,900 tons, a 10.25% increase compared to last month [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 11.38 GW, a 3.39% decrease. The battery cell output in February was 37.09 GW, a 10.49% decrease. The component output in February was 29.3 GW, a 16.76% decrease. The production of silicon wafers is currently in a loss state, while the production of battery cells and components is in a profitable state [6]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 40,060 yuan/ton, with a production income of - 310 yuan/ton [6]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 332,000 tons, a 3.48% decrease, at a historical high [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread**: The document shows the historical trends of the SI main contract basis and the price spread between 421 and 553 silicon in East China [13][14]. - **Inventory**: It presents the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises [16][17][18]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: It shows the historical trends of industrial silicon production, capacity utilization, and operating rates of sample enterprises in different regions [19][20][22]. - **Cost**: It includes the historical trends of main - producing area electricity prices, silicon stone prices, graphite electrode prices, and some reducing agent prices, as well as the cost trends of 421/553 silicon in Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Yunnan [24][25][28]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: It provides the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon, showing the production, import, export, consumption, and balance of industrial silicon [31][32][35]. - **Downstream Industries** - **Organic Silicon**: It includes the price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC, as well as the price trends of downstream products such as 107 glue, raw rubber, silicone oil, and D4 [37][38][40]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: It shows the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends of aluminum alloy, including waste aluminum recycling, import of aluminum crushed materials, and the production and sales of automobiles and aluminum alloy wheels [49][50][55]. - **Polysilicon**: It presents the cost, price, inventory, production, and supply - demand balance trends of polysilicon, as well as the trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, photovoltaic accessories, and photovoltaic grid - connected power generation [59][60][63]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - **SI Main Contract**: This week, the main 05 contract showed an upward trend, and it is expected to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week [81][82]. - **PS Main Contract**: This week, the main 05 contract showed a downward trend, and it is expected to have a bullish oscillatory adjustment next week [83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The silicon - manganese market is oscillating. The cost of ore is rising continuously, and the price of chemical coke has increased by 50 yuan/ton this week. Some factories in Inner Mongolia are under maintenance, and a furnace in Chayouqianqi has been ignited but has not produced iron yet. Some factories in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia in the north plan to cut production by 30% starting from April, and the actual production cut needs to be observed. Some southern factories have plans to start furnaces after high - position hedging, but the number of operating factories is still small, and the alloy output is expected to increase slightly. The latest tender of Hegang is 5100 tons, with an inquiry price of 6300 yuan/ton, and the pricing is in the process of negotiation. It is expected that the short - term cost of silicon - manganese will be firm, and the price will be supported [3]. - The basis of the 05 contract shows that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price, which is bearish. The inventory situation is neutral, the disk shows a bullish trend, and the main position is net short with an increase in short positions, which is bearish. It is expected that the price of silicon - manganese will oscillate strongly this week, and the SM2605 contract will oscillate between 6500 - 6700 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Manganese - Silicon Supply 1. Capacity - The content shows the monthly capacity of silicon - manganese enterprises in China, but specific data analysis is not provided [6]. 2. Annual Output - The annual output of silicon - manganese in different regions of China, including Guangxi, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Yunnan, and other regions, is presented, but no in - depth analysis is given [9]. 3. Weekly, Monthly Output and开工率 - The weekly and monthly output of silicon - manganese in China and the weekly operating rate of silicon - manganese enterprises in China are shown, but no detailed analysis is provided [12]. 4. Regional Output - The monthly output of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guizhou, as well as the daily average output of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guizhou, and Guangxi, are presented, but no in - depth analysis is given [13][14]. II. Manganese - Silicon Demand 1. Steel Tendering and Procurement Price - The monthly procurement prices of silicon - manganese by different steel enterprises, such as Baosteel Co., Ltd., Baowu E'gang, Chengde Jianlong, etc., are shown, but no detailed analysis is provided [17]. 2. Daily Average Hot Metal and Profit - The weekly daily average hot metal output and profit rate of 247 steel enterprises in China are presented, but no in - depth analysis is given [19]. III. Manganese - Silicon Import and Export - The monthly import and export quantities of silicon - manganese in China are shown, but no detailed analysis is provided [21]. IV. Manganese - Silicon Inventory - The weekly inventory of 63 sample silicon - manganese enterprises in China, the monthly average available days of inventory in China, the northern region, and the eastern region are presented, but no in - depth analysis is given [23]. V. Manganese - Silicon Cost 1. Manganese Ore - Import Volume - The monthly import volume of manganese ore from different sources (such as Gabon, Africa South, Australia) and the total import volume by trade method are shown, but no detailed analysis is provided [26]. 2. Manganese Ore - Port Inventory and Available Days - The weekly port inventory of manganese ore in China, Qinzhou Port, and Tianjin Port, as well as the weekly average available days of inventory in China, are presented, but no in - depth analysis is given [28]. 3. Manganese Ore - High - Grade Ore Port Inventory - The weekly port inventory of high - grade manganese ore from different origins (Australia, Gabon, Brazil) in Qinzhou Port and Tianjin Port is shown, but no detailed analysis is provided [30]. 4. Manganese Ore - Tianjin Port Manganese Ore Price - The daily price of different types of manganese ore in Tianjin Port is presented, but no detailed analysis is given [31]. 5. Regional Cost - The daily cost of silicon - manganese in different regions (Inner Mongolia, northern region, Ningxia, southern region, Guangxi) is shown, but no detailed analysis is provided [34]. VI. Manganese - Silicon Profit - The daily profit of silicon - manganese in different regions (northern region, southern region, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi) is presented, but no detailed analysis is given [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc futures show a volatile rebound, closing with a positive line. The trading volume increased, the long positions slightly decreased, and the short positions increased. It was a volume - shrinking rebound. The price rebound led long - position holders to exit and wait, while short - position holders continued to suppress. The market may experience a short - term volatile consolidation. Technically, the price closed below the long - term moving average with weak support. The short - term KDJ indicator rose and operated in the weak area. The trend indicator declined, with the long - position strength rising and the short - position strength falling, and the dominance of short - position strength narrowing. The operation suggestion for Shanghai zinc ZN2605 is to expect volatile consolidation [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - In January 2026, global zinc plate production was 1.127 million tons, consumption was 1.0925 million tons, with a supply surplus of 34,500 tons. Global zinc ore production in January was 1.023 million tons, which is bearish [2]. 3.2 Basis - The spot price was 23,260, and the basis was - 120, which is bearish [2]. 3.3 Inventory - On March 27, LME zinc inventory decreased by 275 tons to 115,375 tons compared to the previous day, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrants decreased by 1,632 tons to 95,760 tons compared to the previous day, which is bullish [2]. 3.4 Market Trends - The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed a volatile rebound, closing below the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average trending downward, which is bearish [2]. 3.5 Main Positions - The main net long positions decreased, which is bullish [2]. 3.6 Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes on March 27 - The trading volume of zinc futures on March 27 was 187,228 lots, and the total open interest was 177,539 lots, with a decrease of 4,398 lots [3]. 3.7 Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes on March 27 - The price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was 23,210 - 23,310 yuan/ton, up 370 yuan; in Guangdong, it was 23,170 - 23,270 yuan/ton, up 340 yuan; in Tianjin, it was 23,160 - 23,260 yuan/ton, up 365 yuan; in Zhejiang, it was 23,190 - 23,290 yuan/ton, up 365 yuan [4]. 3.8 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (2025/3/16 - 2026/3/26) - As of March 26, 2026, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets was 214,400 tons, a decrease of 146,000 tons compared to March 19 and a decrease of 51,000 tons compared to March 23 [5]. 3.9 Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report on March 27 - The total zinc warehouse receipts on March 27 were 95,760 tons, a decrease of 1,632 tons [6]. 3.10 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on March 27 - The total LME zinc inventory on March 27 was 115,375 tons, a decrease of 275 tons [7]. 3.11 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on March 27 - The price of 50% zinc concentrate in most regions was 20,050 yuan/ton, with an increase of 300 yuan/ton, and in some regions like Kunming and Chifeng, it was 19,950 yuan/ton, also with an increase of 300 yuan/ton [9]. 3.12 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on March 27 - The price of 0 zinc ingots from various smelters increased by 370 yuan/ton [12]. 3.13 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in February 2026 - The production of refined zinc in February 2026 was 470,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.72% and a year - on - year increase of 10.01%. The planned production for March was 490,200 tons [14]. 3.14 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on March 27 - The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee for 50% grade was mostly in the range of 1,400 - 1,600 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% grade was 20 US dollars/dry ton [16]. 3.15 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on March 27 - The total trading volume of zinc by members was 190,605 lots, an increase of 53,063 lots. The total long positions were 67,842 lots, a decrease of 121 lots, and the total short positions were 70,026 lots, an increase of 704 lots [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the short - term spot price is expected to fluctuate widely following the cost side, affected by high - level and wide - range fluctuations in the crude oil market. The spot market has low trader activity, and the spot basis is running weakly. Attention should be paid to the subsequent cost side and the load reduction situation of upstream and downstream [5]. - For MEG, starting from early April, the arrival of ethylene glycol at the main port will drop to a low level. With exports and regional supply adjustments, the port inventory will accelerate depletion. The cost side is strongly supported due to the severe Middle East situation. The market will remain strong as long as the import supply cannot be effectively realized. Attention should be paid to the overseas supply recovery progress and polyester load changes [6]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 - Not provided in the report 2.每日提示 - **PTA Daily View** - **Fundamentals**: The PTA futures fluctuated upward yesterday. During the industry meeting, the market negotiation atmosphere was relatively light, and the spot basis was relatively stable. The negotiation and transaction prices this week and next week were around 05 - 70, and the next - week warehouse receipts were traded at 05 - 60, with the price negotiation range at 6450 - 6700. Today's mainstream spot basis is 05 - 70 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 6570, the basis of the 05 contract is - 208, and the futures price is at a premium, which is bearish [5]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 5.85 days, a decrease of 0.07 days compared with the previous period, which is bullish [5]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5]. - **Main positions**: The net long position increased, which is bullish [5]. - **Expectation**: The short - term PTA spot price is expected to fluctuate widely following the cost side. Attention should be paid to the subsequent cost side and the load reduction situation of upstream and downstream [5]. - **MEG Daily View** - **Fundamentals**: On Thursday, the price center of ethylene glycol rebounded slightly, and the market negotiation was average. The ethylene glycol futures fluctuated and consolidated within the day. The spot negotiation this week was at a discount of 50 - 55 yuan/ton to the 05 contract, and the next - week spot negotiation was at a discount of 35 - 40 yuan/ton to the 05 contract. Traders mainly engaged in swap operations, and the basis ran stably [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4988, the basis of the 05 contract is - 70, and the futures price is at a premium, which is neutral [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 92.9 tons, an increase of 1.2 tons compared with the previous period, which is bearish [7]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [7]. - **Main positions**: The net short position decreased, which is bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: Starting from early April, the arrival of ethylene glycol at the main port will drop to a low level. With exports and regional supply adjustments, the port inventory will accelerate depletion. The cost side is strongly supported due to the severe Middle East situation. The market will remain strong as long as the import supply cannot be effectively realized. Attention should be paid to the overseas supply recovery progress and polyester load changes [6]. 3.今日关注 - Not provided in the report 4.基本面数据 - **PX Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance data of PX from September 2025 to June 2026, including production, import, demand, inventory changes, and the balance of PX for polyester [10]. - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the monthly balance data of PTA from October 2025 to September 2026, including total production, import, export, total consumption, refined distillation consumption, other consumption, surplus, year - on - year changes in production and consumption, and cumulative year - on - year changes [11]. - **MEG Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly balance data of MEG from October 2025 to September 2026, including total production, import, export, total consumption, polyester consumption, other consumption, surplus, year - on - year changes in production, import, supply, and consumption, and cumulative year - on - year changes [12]. 5.价格相关 - Multiple price - related charts are provided, including the market price of PET bottle chips in the East China region, production profit, operating rate, inventory, PTA and MEG inter - month spreads, basis, spot spreads, and processing margins [15][16][18][21][24][30][37]. 6.库存分析 - Inventory data and charts of PTA, MEG, PET chips, and polyester fibers are presented, including factory inventory days and port inventory [40][41][43][44]. 7.开工率相关 - The operating rate data and charts of the upstream and downstream of the polyester industry are provided, including the operating rates of PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol, polyester, and textile enterprises in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions [51][55]. 8.利润相关 - Profit data and charts of PTA, MEG, polyester fiber short - fiber, and polyester fiber long - fiber are presented, including processing fees and production profits [57][59][62][63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure has decreased this week, and the number of expected maintenance is expected to decrease next week, with a slight increase in scheduled production. The current demand may remain sluggish, and continuous attention should be paid to macro - policies and export trends. PVC2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5575 - 5831 [8]. - The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish [11]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors include a rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: In February 2026, PVC production was 1.985126 million tons, a 7.60% month - on - month decrease. The weekly sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 80.12%, a 0.02 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 364,240 tons, a 2.15% month - on - month increase, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 125,630 tons, a 10.77% month - on - month decrease. The downstream overall开工率 was 41.66%, a 0.33 - percentage - point month - on - month increase, but lower than the historical average. The calcium carbide method profit was 193.45 yuan/ton, a 27.00% month - on - month decrease, higher than the historical average; the ethylene method profit was - 433.35 yuan/ton, an 84.20% month - on - month increase in losses, lower than the historical average [8]. - **Basis**: On March 25, the price of East China SG - 5 was 5920 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 47 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The in - factory inventory was 365,410 tons, a 3.14% month - on - month decrease. The calcium carbide factory warehouse was 265,434 tons, a 2.30% month - on - month decrease; the ethylene factory warehouse was 99,976 tons, a 5.30% month - on - month decrease. The social inventory was 610,520 tons, a 3.36% month - on - month decrease. The in - stock days of production enterprises were 6 days, a 6.25% month - on - month decrease [8]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased [8]. - **Expectation**: The overall cost has weakened. The supply pressure has decreased this week, and the number of expected maintenance is expected to decrease next week, with an increase in scheduled production. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, and the current demand may remain sluggish [8]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - Provides yesterday's market overview data, including futures prices, spot prices, basis, and some monthly spreads, as well as changes in weekly inventory, downstream开工率, profit, cost, production, and capacity utilization rate [13][14][15] 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: Displays the basis trend chart of PVC futures over multiple years [18][19] - **Price and Volume Trends**: Shows the price, trading volume, and position changes of PVC futures in 2026 [21][22] - **Spread Analysis**: Presents the spread analysis chart of the main contracts of PVC futures over multiple years [24][25] 3.4 PVC Fundamentals - **Calcium Carbide Method - Lanthanum Coke**: Displays the price, cost - profit,开工率, inventory, and daily production of lanthanum coke over multiple years [27][28] - **Calcium Carbide Method - Calcium Carbide**: Displays the price, cost - profit,开工率, maintenance loss, and production of calcium carbide over multiple years [30][31] - **Calcium Carbide Method - Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: Displays the price, production of liquid chlorine, and the price and monthly production of raw salt over multiple years [32][33] - **Calcium Carbide Method - Caustic Soda**: Displays the price, cost - profit,开工率, weekly production, and maintenance volume of caustic soda over multiple years, as well as the cost - profit of chlor - alkali, apparent consumption, double - ton spread, and inventory of caustic soda [34][35][37] - **PVC Supply Trend**: Displays the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of PVC over multiple years [39][40][41] - **Demand Trend**: Displays the daily sales volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average开工率,开工 rate of various downstream products, and the cost, profit, production, and apparent consumption of paste resin. It also shows real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area, as well as social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment year - on - year [43][44][45] - **Inventory**: Displays the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory warehouse, ethylene factory warehouse, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days over multiple years [54][55] - **Ethylene Method**: Displays the import volume of vinyl chloride, ethylene dichloride, PVC export volume, ethylene method FOB spread, and vinyl chloride import spread over multiple years [56][57] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Displays the monthly supply - demand situation of PVC in 2025 and 2026, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, import, and supply - demand difference [58][59]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of Shanghai zinc futures (ZN2605) is expected to be in a consolidation phase. The previous trading day saw a sideways movement, with shrinking trading volume. Long positions increased slightly while short positions decreased slightly. Technically, the price is below the moving - average system, and short - term indicators show a weak upward trend, with the bearish force gaining an advantage [2][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - In November 2025, the global zinc plate production was 1.197 million tons, consumption was 1.168 million tons, with a surplus of 29,000 tons. From January to November, the global zinc plate production was 12.7561 million tons, consumption was 13.1065 million tons, with a shortage of 350,400 tons. In November, the global zinc ore production was 1.069 million tons, and from January to November, it was 12.1419 million tons [2]. 3.2 Basis - The spot price of zinc was 22,980, and the basis was +45, indicating a neutral situation [2]. 3.3 Inventory - On March 25, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 625 tons to 116,475 tons, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrant decreased by 1,354 tons to 98,470 tons [2][6][7]. 3.4 Futures Market Quotes - On March 25, the trading volume of zinc futures on the SHFE totaled 158,313 lots, with a total trading value of 1.81794209 billion yuan. The open interest was 185,793 lots, an increase of 365 lots [3]. 3.5 Spot Market Quotes - On March 25, the price of domestic zinc concentrate was 1,500 yuan/metal ton, and the import comprehensive TC was 20 US dollars/kiloton. The price of 0 zinc in different regions showed an upward trend, with an increase of 50 - 70 yuan/ton [4]. 3.6 Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From March 12 to March 23, 2026, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets decreased from 231,100 tons to 219,500 tons, a decrease of 16,700 tons compared to March 16 and 9,500 tons compared to March 19 [5]. 3.7 Zinc Warrant Report - On March 25, the total SHFE zinc warrant was 98,470 tons, a decrease of 1,354 tons. The decrease mainly occurred in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Tianjin [6]. 3.8 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution - On March 25, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 625 tons to 116,475 tons [7]. 3.9 Zinc Concentrate Price - On March 25, the price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in major domestic cities was 19,720 - 19,820 yuan/ton, with an increase of 50 yuan/ton [9]. 3.10 Zinc Ingot Smelter Price - On March 25, the price of 0 zinc ingots from major domestic smelters increased by 60 yuan/ton [12]. 3.11 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in February 2026 - The planned production in February was 468,700 tons, and the actual production was 470,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.01% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.72%. The capacity utilization rate was 65.87%, and the planned production in March was 490,200 tons [13]. 3.12 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - On March 25, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee for 50% - grade was 1,400 - 1,700 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% - grade was 10 - 30 US dollars/kiloton [15]. 3.13 SHFE Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking - On March 25, the total trading volume of SHFE members in zinc futures was 146,163 lots, a decrease of 60,163 lots. The total long position was 68,913 lots, an increase of 224 lots, and the total short position was 69,639 lots, a decrease of 321 lots [16].