Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the given content. 2) Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of rebar are both weakening. Production by construction steel mills is weakening, with weekly rebar output down 854,000 tons from the previous week. Supply has continued to contract to a relatively low level, and the sustainability needs further monitoring. Meanwhile, inventory levels are high, and the positive effects are not strong. Demand for rebar has continued to weaken, with high - frequency demand indicators declining and remaining at a low level in recent years. Downstream conditions have not improved, and off - season demand will continue to be weak, which will further suppress steel prices. With supply contracting to a low level and demand also weakening, the fundamentals have not improved under the situation of weak supply and demand. Steel prices are still under pressure, but due to low valuation and cost support, the subsequent trend is expected to continue the pattern of oscillating to find the bottom. Attention should be paid to changes in demand [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The weekly output of rebar is 2 million tons, a decrease of 854,000 tons compared to the previous week, and a decrease of 1.259 million tons compared to the end of last month. It is also 3.394 million tons lower than the same period. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 88.80%, up 0.99 percentage points from the previous week, 0.19 percentage points higher than the end of last month, and 0.22 percentage points higher than the same period [1]. Demand - The apparent demand for rebar is 2.1637 million tons, a decrease of 215,000 tons compared to the previous week, and a decrease of 1.581 million tons compared to the end of last month. It is also 1.447 million tons lower than the same period. The weekly average of steel union building materials transactions is 991,000 tons, an increase of 27,000 tons compared to the previous week, a decrease of 52,000 tons compared to the end of last month, and a decrease of 127,000 tons compared to the same period [1]. Inventory - The total inventory of rebar is 5.7617 million tons, a decrease of 1.637 million tons compared to the previous week, and a decrease of 2.635 million tons compared to the end of last month. It is 13.068 million tons higher than the same period. The in - plant inventory is 1.6042 million tons, a decrease of 642,000 tons compared to the previous week, and a decrease of 1.129 million tons compared to the end of last month. It is 1.106 million tons higher than the same period. The social inventory is 4.1575 million tons, a decrease of 995,000 tons compared to the previous week, and a decrease of 1.506 million tons compared to the end of last month. It is 11.962 million tons higher than the same period [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - level has no unexpected positive news. Fundamentally, both supply and demand of rebar increase while inventory decreases. Coupled with raw material supply disruptions, there is support for short - term rebar prices [78]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Part 1: Rebar Futures Market Review 3.1.1 Recent Important Information Overview - Economic data: As of the end of September, M2 balance was 335.38 trillion yuan, up 8.4% year - on - year, down 0.4% from last month; M1 balance was 113.15 trillion yuan, up 7.2% year - on - year, up 1.2% from last month; M0 balance was 13.58 trillion yuan, up 11.5% year - on - year, down 0.2% from last month. In the first three quarters, net cash injection was 761.9 billion yuan. From January to September 2025, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 371,535 billion yuan, down 0.5% year - on - year, with infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas and water production and supply) up 1.1% year - on - year. National real estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, down 13.9% year - on - year; residential investment was 520.46 billion yuan, down 12.9% year - on - year. Newly - built commercial housing sales area was 658.35 million square meters, down 5.5% year - on - year [8]. - Policy information: On October 30, local time, the leaders of China and the US met in Busan. After the meeting, the US cancelled the 10% fentanyl tariff, extended the 10% reciprocal tariff for one year, suspended the entity list penetration rule in the technology field for one year, and suspended the special port - calling fees for Chinese - related ships calling at US ports for one year. China adjusted counter - measures related to fentanyl tariffs, suspended a series of rare - earth export control measures issued on October 9 for one year, and suspended counter - measures against US maritime measures for one year. The two countries will also strengthen fentanyl anti - drug cooperation and expand agricultural product trade [7]. 3.1.2 Rebar Main Contract Trend - No specific content provided 3.2 Part 2: Futures Market Environment: Macro, Price Ratio, Basis 3.2.1 Price Ratio - Other Commodities in the Industry Chain - The prices of rebar HRB400 20mm in Shanghai, hot - rolled coil Q235B 4.75mm in Shanghai, PB powder 61.5%Fe in Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Qingdao Port, and low - sulfur main coking coal were 3,230 yuan/ton, 3,350 yuan/ton, 802 yuan/ton, 1,570 yuan/ton, and 1,466 yuan/ton respectively. Their weekly price increases were 0.31%, 0.91%, 2.81%, 3.29%, and 0.75% respectively; monthly price increases were 0.00%, 0.00%, 3.34%, 6.80%, and 3.64% respectively; annual price changes were - 8.76%, - 5.40%, 5.09%, - 16.93%, and - 14.59% respectively [23]. 3.2.2 Rebar Main Contract Basis - The basis data from October 21 to October 30, 2025, showed that the basis (spot - futures) ranged from 104 to 157 yuan/ton [24]. 3.3 Part 3: Rebar Spot Supply and Demand Overview 3.3.1 Steel Mill Raw Material Inventory - No specific content provided 3.3.2 Blast Furnace Profit (Various Steel Products) - No specific content provided 3.3.3 Blast Furnace Profit (Spot - Futures) - No specific content provided 3.3.4 Blast Furnace Operation - The blast furnace operation rate of 247 steel enterprises in China was 81.75% on October 31, 2025, and 84.71% on October 24, 2025 [36]. 3.3.5 Electric Furnace Operation - No specific content provided 3.3.6 Daily Average Hot Metal Output - No specific content provided 3.3.7 Weekly Steel Output - On October 31, 2025, the output of five major steel products was 789.32 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 0.005746614 and a month - on - month increase of 0.012922682 [45]. 3.3.8 Weekly Rebar Output - On October 31, 2025, rebar output was 212.59 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.026657652 and a year - on - year decrease of 0.125935367 [49]. 3.3.9 Steel Mill Inventory of Steel Products - The steel mill inventory data showed fluctuations, with values such as 171.71, 184.63, 184.64, 192.34, and 158.91, and corresponding month - on - month changes [60]. 3.3.10 Social Inventory of Steel Products - The social inventory data showed values such as 430.81, 437.49, 456.41, 467.31, and 443.34, and corresponding month - on - month changes [60]. 3.3.11 Rebar Social Inventory - The rebar social inventory data showed values such as 430.81, 437.49, 456.41, 467.31, 443.34, and 471.89, and corresponding month - on - month changes [65]. 3.3.12 Building Materials Transactions - No specific content provided 3.3.13 Rebar Inventory in Steel Mills - No specific content provided 3.3.14 Total Rebar Inventory - No specific content provided 3.3.15 Rebar Apparent Consumption - No specific content provided 3.4 Part 4: Future Outlook - Supply: Some steel mills increased production, and with the allocation of hot metal among varieties, rebar production continued to rise this week. The supply of five major steel products was 875.29 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.97 million tons, or 1.2%. Rebar weekly output was 212.59 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.52 million tons [76]. - Demand: At the end of the traditional peak season, terminal consumption showed some resilience this week. The weekly consumption of five major steel products was 916.42 million tons, with building materials consumption up 5.1% week - on - week and plate consumption up 1.3% week - on - week. The total inventory of five major steel products was 1513.74 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41.13 million tons, or 2.6% [77]. - Raw materials: The supply of imported iron ore remained stable. China strengthened safety inspections on coal mines, restricting coal production. Coupled with a brief impact on Mongolian coal imports, the supply of coal and coke was weak, and there was support for prices [77].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report On Thursday, the RB2601 contract faced pressure and pulled back. The macro - situation shows that the leaders of China and the US had a meeting in Busan, South Korea, agreeing to strengthen cooperation in economic and trade fields. In terms of supply - demand, the weekly output of rebar continued to increase with a capacity utilization rate of 46.6%, rising for two consecutive weeks; terminal demand increased while inventory declined for three consecutive weeks. Overall, the supply - demand environment of rebar has improved. However, with the Fed's interest rate cut and the end of the Sino - US summit, the market's mainstream funds reduced long positions and increased short positions, and the market may fluctuate. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are pulling back from high levels. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to risk control [2]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,106.00 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan; the position volume was 1,894,916 lots, up 909 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 68,256 lots, down 20,857 lots. The RB1 - 5 contract spread was - 64 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan. The daily warehouse receipt of RB on the SHFE was 145,840 tons, down 300 tons. The HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 212 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,290.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; (actual weight) was 3,374 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. In Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it was 3,340.00 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Tianjin (theoretical weight), it was 3,200.00 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 184.00 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 80.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 807.00 yuan/wet ton, up 4.00 yuan. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,590.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,230.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 3,000.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan. The iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 144.2065 million tons, up 1.3895 million tons. The coke inventory of sample coking plants was 373,700 tons, down 1,200 tons. The coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.3327 million tons, down 60,000 tons. The billet inventory in Tangshan was 1.1957 million tons, down 103,900 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.73%, up 0.48%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 89.92%, down 0.39% [2]. Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar of sample steel mills was 2.1259 million tons, up 55,200 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 46.60%, up 1.21%. The factory inventory of sample steel mills was 1.7171 million tons, down 129,200 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 4.3081 million tons, down 66,700 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 67.71%, unchanged. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 73.49 million tons, down 3.88 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese rebar was 1.541 million tons, up 66,000 tons. The net export volume of steel was 992,000 tons, up 91,000 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 92.78, down 0.27. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was - 0.50%, down 1.00%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 13.90%, down 1.00%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 1.10%, down 0.90% [2].

本周螺纹钢总库存为659.64万吨，上周为602.25万吨，本周累库57.39万吨，上周去库34.05万吨。 10月9日，上期所螺纹钢仓库期货仓单275736吨，环比上个交易日减少10110吨。 分析观点： 螺纹钢现货市场成交一般，商家有一定挺价意愿，报价稳中上调10-30元/吨，基差收缩。 2025年10月11日螺纹钢现货 价格表 | 商品名 | | 规格 | 品牌/产 | 报价 | 报价类 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 称 | | | 地 | | 型 | | | | 螺纹钢 | HRB400 Φ16 中天 | Ⅲ级螺纹 | HRB400 | 3180元/ | 市场价 | 浙江省/杭州 | 杭州鑫宴贸易有限公司 | | | 钢 | | | 吨 | | 市 | | | 螺纹钢 | 永钢 Φ16 | | 永钢 | 3200元/ | 市场价 | 上海/上海市 | 上海巨福国际贸易有限公 | | | | | | 吨 | | | 司 | | 螺纹钢 | 萍钢 φ16-φ20 HRB400 杭州 | | 萍钢 | 31 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The extension of the China-US trade tariff truce has alleviated external trade frictions and boosted domestic market sentiment. The steel mills maintain high production enthusiasm due to good profits, and the steel output remains stable in the short - term despite the frequent news of production restrictions. The supply - demand relationship of building materials is weakening, and contradictions are starting to accumulate. The futures price fluctuates with raw materials and faces upward pressure. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production - restriction policies [7][72][73] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Part 1: Review of Rebar Futures Market 3.1.1 Recent Important Information Overview - Economic data shows that in July, the output of industrial raw coal above designated size decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, and from January to July, it increased by 3.8% year - on - year. From January to July, national real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year - on - year, and various real estate indicators such as construction area, new construction area, and completion area also declined. National fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 1.6% year - on - year from January to July, and infrastructure investment increased by 3.2% year - on - year. Policy information indicates that the US extended the tariff truce with China by 90 days, which alleviated trade frictions and boosted domestic market sentiment [7] 3.1.2 Rebar Main Contract Trend - No specific content provided 3.2 Part 2: Futures Market Environment: Macro, Price Ratio, and Basis 3.2.1 Macro - Currency Price - No specific content provided 3.2.2 Price Ratio - Domestic and Overseas - No specific content provided 3.2.3 Price Ratio - Other Commodities in the Industry Chain - The prices of various steel - related products have different trends. For example, the price of rebar HRB400 20mm in Shanghai is 3,320 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.19%, a monthly change of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 6.07% [22] 3.2.4 Rebar Main Contract Basis - The basis (spot - futures) of rebar fluctuates. For example, on August 14, 2025, the futures main contract was 3189 yuan/ton, the cheapest deliverable was 3300 yuan/ton, and the basis was 111 yuan/ton [26] 3.3 Part 3: Overview of Rebar Spot Supply and Demand 3.3.1 Steel Mill Raw Material Inventory - No specific content provided 3.3.2 Blast Furnace Profit (for Various Steel Products) - No specific content provided 3.3.3 Blast Furnace Profit (Futures and Spot) - No specific content provided 3.3.4 Blast Furnace Operation Rate - No specific content provided 3.3.5 Electric Furnace Operation Rate - No specific content provided 3.3.6 Daily Average Hot Metal Output - No specific content provided 3.3.7 Weekly Steel Output - On August 15, 2025, the output of steel products (including rebar, hot - rolled coil, wire rod, and medium - thick plate) was 785.44 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 0.125530207 and a month - on - month increase of 0.002911282 [46] 3.3.8 Weekly Rebar Output - On August 15, 2025, the weekly rebar output was 220.45 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.003300479 and a year - on - year increase of 0.325058604 [50] 3.3.9 Steel Mill Inventory of Steel Products - On August 15, 2025, the steel mill inventory of steel products was 503.88 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.08458688 and a month - on - month increase of 0.022151899 [53] 3.3.10 Social Inventory of Steel Products - No specific content provided 3.3.11 Social Inventory of Rebar - No specific content provided 3.3.12 Building Materials Transactions - No specific content provided 3.3.13 Consumption Indicator - Cement Price - No specific content provided 3.3.14 Downstream High - Frequency Data - Land Transaction Area - No specific content provided 3.3.15 Downstream High - Frequency Data - Real Estate Transactions - No specific content provided 3.4 Part 4: Outlook for the Future - The extension of the China - US trade tariff truce has alleviated external trade frictions. In terms of fundamentals, steel mills have high production enthusiasm due to good profits, and the steel output remains stable in the short - term. This week, the supply of five major steel products increased by 0.3% week - on - week, with the rebar output decreasing by 0.3% week - on - week. In terms of demand, the consumption of five major steel products decreased by 1.7% this week, with the building materials consumption decreasing by 7.6% week - on - week and the plate consumption increasing by 5.6% week - on - week. The social inventory of steel products increased week - on - week, mainly due to rebar. The supply of raw materials is still subject to disturbances, and the price fluctuations are increasing. The supply - demand relationship of building materials is weakening, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production - restriction policies [72][73]