Core Viewpoint - The report from Cinda Securities indicates that Tabo (06110) has experienced a high single-digit year-on-year decline in total sales for its retail and wholesale businesses in Q3 of the fiscal year 2025/26, aligning with previous performance guidance trends [1] Group 1: Retail and Wholesale Performance - Retail business continues to outperform wholesale, with manageable discount and inventory situations, reflecting strong retail management capabilities [2] - The decline in retail sales is less severe than that in wholesale, with offline sales showing improvement while online growth is weakening due to high base effects [2] - Overall discount rates in direct retail have deepened year-on-year, but the extent of discounting has narrowed compared to the first half of the fiscal year [2] - Total inventory at the end of the period has decreased year-on-year, with good turnover efficiency and a slight improvement in inventory age structure [2] - The network of stores is continuously optimized, with a 13.4% year-on-year and 1.3% quarter-on-quarter reduction in gross sales area of direct stores, and the pace of store closures has slowed compared to Q2 [2] Group 2: Collaboration with Core Brands - The collaboration with Nike is expected to deepen, as both companies face similar pressures in the Chinese market regarding foot traffic, sell-through rates, and inventory challenges [3] - Strategies include increased support for product recovery and adjustments to 2026 spring/summer orders to manage new inventory shipments [3] - Joint efforts are being made to regulate online market order and promote unified pricing management [3] - The company is anticipated to navigate through the downturn alongside its core clients, with potential for future recovery [3] Group 3: New Business Development - The company is steadily advancing its new business layout, with successful launches in specialized segments [4] - The running category has seen the establishment of the Ektos brand store, enhancing brand recognition through participation in major events like the Shanghai Marathon [4] - In the outdoor category, the exclusive agency for the high-end Norwegian outdoor brand Norrøna has been established, with plans for expansion into more cities [4] - The company is focused on creating new growth curves through the introduction of new categories [4] Group 4: Financial Guidance - The company has adopted a conservative financial outlook, noting increased volatility in terminal demand since December and significant operational pressures [5] - The previously set target of "year-on-year net profit flat" is expected to deviate within a controllable range [5] - The company maintains a "short-term cautious, long-term optimistic" stance [5] - Profit forecasts for FY2026-2028 are projected at HKD 1.285 billion, 1.397 billion, and 1.528 billion, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14.52X, 13.36X, and 12.21X [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that due to significant disruptions in offline retail, the profit forecast for Tmall (滔搏) has been slightly lowered, with expected net profits for FY2026-2028 being 1.22 billion, 1.33 billion, and 1.49 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -5.3%, +9.6%, and +11.5% [1] - The reasonable valuation range has been adjusted to 3.2 to 3.5 HKD, down from the previous range of 3.8 to 4.0 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 14 to 15 times for FY2027 [1] Group 2 - In Q3 of FY2026, the total sales amount for the retail and wholesale business recorded a high single-digit decline year-on-year, with the gross sales area of direct-operated stores decreasing by 1.3% quarter-on-quarter and 13.4% year-on-year [2] - The online channel's growth rate remains better than that of the offline channel, although the growth rate has slightly slowed compared to the first half of the year due to base effects [3] - The company is optimizing its offline store network by cautiously closing underperforming stores and focusing on extending online channels for offline stores, with a significant reduction in the number of store closures expected this year compared to last year [3] Group 3 - The discount rate has deepened year-on-year due to the increased proportion of online channels, but the extent of discounting has narrowed compared to the first half of the fiscal year [4] - Nike's Q2 FY2026 performance slightly exceeded previous guidance and market expectations, with revenue of 12.4 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 1%, while the Greater China region continues to face significant pressure [4] - Adidas reported Q3 results that fell short of market expectations for revenue but exceeded expectations for operating profit, with a 12% year-on-year increase in revenue for the Adidas brand [5] Group 4 - The company has maintained a strong growth momentum for its main brand, Adidas, with expectations of double-digit growth for FY2025, while Nike's performance in FY2026 Q2 was better than previous guidance but faced challenges in the Greater China market [6] - The company has been increasing its focus on outdoor and running segments, becoming the exclusive agent for several outdoor brands in the Chinese market and opening a running brand collective store [6]

Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities has slightly lowered the profit forecast for Tmall (06110) due to significant disruptions in offline retail, expecting net profits for FY2026-2028 to be 1.22/1.33/1.49 billion yuan, down from previous estimates of 1.29/1.41/1.57 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year change of -5.3%/+9.6%/+11.5% [1] Group 1 - The total sales amount for the retail and wholesale business in Q3 FY2026 recorded a high single-digit decline year-on-year [2] - As of November 30, the gross sales area of direct-operated stores decreased by 1.3% compared to the previous quarter and by 13.4% year-on-year [2] - The online channel's growth rate remains better than that of the offline channel, but the growth rate has slightly slowed compared to the first half of the year due to base effects [2] Group 2 - The total inventory at the end of Q3 decreased year-on-year, maintaining good turnover efficiency, but the promotional atmosphere in the industry has made it challenging to manage inventory healthily [3] - Nike's FY2026 Q2 revenue was $12.4 billion, up 1% year-on-year, slightly better than previous guidance and consensus expectations, with regional performance varying significantly [3] - The gross margin decline was less than previously guided, with North America leading revenue growth while the Greater China region faced significant pressure [3] Group 3 - Future Q3 revenue is expected to decline by a low single-digit percentage, with gross margin expected to decrease by approximately 175-225 basis points [4] - Adidas' Q3 revenue did not meet consensus expectations, but operating profit exceeded expectations, with a 12% year-on-year growth in brand revenue [4] - Adidas has raised its full-year guidance due to strong brand momentum and better-than-expected business performance [4] Group 4 - The company is optimistic about its operational resilience and long-term cash returns [5] - The retail pressure remains high with a high single-digit decline, but inventory improvement and a reduction in discount rates have been observed [6] - The company has been increasing its focus on outdoor and running segments, becoming the exclusive agent for several outdoor brands in the Chinese market [6]