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九兴控股(01836.HK):25Q3订单量增价减 生产效率逐步恢复正常
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-24 03:47
Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing steady revenue growth despite short-term challenges, with a strong medium to long-term order certainty and a gradual recovery in profitability expected [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of $400 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, with manufacturing revenue at $390 million, also up 3.6% year-on-year [1] - The shipment volume reached 13.9 million pairs, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.8%, while the average selling price (ASP) was $28.2, down 3.8% year-on-year [1] - The company slightly adjusted its profit forecast, expecting net profits of $161 million, $179 million, and $198 million for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -6%, 11%, and 11% respectively [2] Group 2: Production Capacity and Efficiency - The company is addressing short-term production efficiency issues, with improvements noted since June 2025, leading to a resolution of efficiency problems and better preparation for future capacity expansions [1] - The company plans to add 20 million pairs of new capacity to support business growth over the next three years, driven by strong customer orders, particularly in the sports sector [2] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The company maintains a strong recommendation rating, supported by its position as a leading manufacturer in the sports fashion footwear sector, with stable core customer orders and ongoing new customer acquisition [2] - The company is committed to a fixed dividend policy of over 70% and plans to repurchase or issue special dividends of $60 million annually [2]
九兴控股(01836):25Q3订单量增价减,生产效率逐步恢复正常
CMS· 2025-10-23 10:33
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [1][4]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, the company experienced a revenue growth of 4%, with shipment volume increasing by 8% but average selling price (ASP) decreasing by 4%. The short-term impact on production efficiency is gradually being resolved, and while short-term profitability is under pressure, medium to long-term order certainty is strong, leading to an expected gradual recovery in profitability [1][7]. - The company has slightly adjusted its profit forecast, expecting net profits of $161 million, $179 million, and $198 million for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -6%, 11%, and 11% respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected at 11X for 2025 and 10X for 2026 [1][7]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to be $1.578 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 2%. The operating profit is expected to be $160 million, reflecting a slight decrease of 2% compared to the previous year. Net profit is forecasted at $161 million, down 6% year-on-year [3][9]. - The company maintains a fixed dividend payout of over 70% and plans to repurchase or distribute special dividends of $60 million annually [7]. Performance Metrics - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately HKD 13.3 billion, with a current share price of HKD 15.87. The return on equity (ROE) stands at 15.8%, and the debt-to-asset ratio is 24.6% [4][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at $0.19, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 10.8 [10].
九兴控股(01836):25H1收入稳健,新员工效率不及预期盈利能力承压
CMS· 2025-07-18 06:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for the company [1][4] Core Views - The company's manufacturing business revenue increased by 2.5% in Q2 2025, with a shipment volume increase of 4%, but the average selling price decreased by 2% [1] - Employee efficiency improvements are slower than expected, leading to capacity ramp-up challenges, which are expected to impact short-term profitability [1] - The company is expected to bear some tariff costs in the second half of 2025, particularly in Q4, but these impacts are anticipated to lessen in the following year [1] - The company has a strong order book for Q4 2025 and is actively expanding its customer base, with plans to onboard new clients in 2026 [1] Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at $1.614 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4% [3] - Net profit for 2025 is expected to be $169 million, reflecting a slight decline of 1% year-on-year [3] - The company’s PE ratios are projected at 9X for 2025 and 8X for 2026, indicating a favorable valuation [1][3] - The company’s total assets are expected to reach $1.420 billion by 2025, with a total liability of $317 million [8] Performance Metrics - The company’s gross margin is projected to be 24.2% in 2025, with a net margin of 10.5% [9] - Return on equity (ROE) is expected to remain stable at 15.5% for 2025 [9] - The company’s debt-to-asset ratio is projected to be 22.3% in 2025, indicating a manageable level of debt [9]