最近国际经贸圈的事儿挺耐人寻味。同样是跟俄罗斯做能源生意，美国对印度挥出50%的关税重锤，谈 判说黄就黄；对中国却放缓脚步，不仅暂不提加税，还把谈判期限延了90天。这差别对待的背后，藏着 中印两国实力与策略的根本不同。 一、关税这杆秤，偏向谁全看实力 印度最近被美国关税压得够呛。8月6日先加25%，8月27日再追加25%，纺织品、珠宝等主要出口商品 要面对50%的重税。要知道，印度对美出口占总出口的20%，年出口额达870亿美元。这么高的关税， 企业根本扛不住。 印度最大的鞋履制造商法里达集团，原计划投100亿卢比建新厂，现在直接冻结了。老板坦言："25%关 税还能想办法，50%就一分钱赚不到了。"更糟的是，美国原定于8月25-29日的访印谈判团说取消就取 消，新时间表都没谱。惠誉预警，这可能拉低印度2026财年GDP增长预期，彭博经济研究更是预测，印 度对美出口可能跌60%，近1%的GDP悬了。 中国这边则是另一番景象。美国本想因买俄油给中国加税，美俄会晤后却改口，说两三周内先不考虑， 还把中美谈判延了90天。这不是没原因的，之前美国对中国加税到100%，中国强硬反击，最后美国只 能主动回来谈。而且中国买俄 ...

Market Overview - The domestic market indices showed positive performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,581.86, up by 0.62% [2] - The agricultural sector underperformed slightly with a decline of 0.14% in the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector [4] Agricultural Sector Insights - The report highlights a favorable investment opportunity in Haida Group, driven by expected recovery in the feed industry as upstream raw material prices stabilize and downstream farming conditions improve [4] - Recent data indicates a decline in pig prices, with average prices in key provinces showing a decrease of 4.88% in Sichuan and Guangdong, while the average pork price increased by 0.29% [4] - The report discusses the cyclical nature of the pig industry, emphasizing that the current market may be overly pessimistic regarding the impact of rising pig production capacity on profitability [4] - Recommendations include companies like Wen's Foodstuffs, Shennong Group, and New Hope, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated recovery in the pig farming sector [4] Poultry and Pet Food Industry - The poultry sector is projected to see performance driven by new demand recovery in 2025, with Shennong Development positioned well for growth [4] - The pet food market is highlighted as a key area for growth in 2025, with a focus on brands that are leading in profitability and market trends, recommending Guibao Pet Food as a top pick [4] Textile and Apparel Sector - Nine Star Holdings reported a revenue increase of 2.9% in Q2 2025, with footwear manufacturing also showing growth [6][8] - The report notes that the sports apparel segment is experiencing robust demand, with brands like Anta Sports and Li Ning showing varied performance in retail sales [10] - Recommendations for the textile sector include companies with strong mid-year performance certainty, such as Bailong Oriental and Zhejiang Natural [10] Jewelry Sector - The gold and jewelry retail sector saw a year-on-year growth of 6.1% in June 2025, indicating stable demand [10] - Companies like Laoputang and Chaohongji are recommended for their potential recovery based on channel scale and franchise resources [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market" for the textile and apparel industry [1]. Core Views - The textile and apparel industry has shown a steady performance with a year-on-year revenue growth of 2.9% for Q2 2025, driven by the collaboration between Ciele Athletics and Tabo [2][5]. - The overall retail sales in June 2025 increased by 4.8% year-on-year, indicating a stable demand in the market, although growth rates for major consumer categories have slowed down [2][44]. - The report highlights the resilience of the luxury goods sector, with Richemont's sales growing by 3% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in the jewelry segment [63]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported an unaudited revenue of $444 million, a 2.9% increase year-on-year, with the footwear manufacturing segment contributing $433 million, also up by 2.5% [15]. - The total revenue for the first half of 2025 reached $775 million, reflecting a 0.7% year-on-year growth [15]. Market Dynamics - The SW textile and apparel sector saw a slight increase of 0.24% in the week from July 14 to July 18, 2025, while the SW light industry manufacturing sector rose by 0.08% [16]. - The textile manufacturing sub-sector increased by 2.43%, while the apparel and home textile sub-sector rose by 0.29% [16]. Industry Data Tracking - In the first half of 2025, China's textile and apparel exports amounted to $705.19 billion and $734.59 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.8% and a slight decline of 0.2%, respectively [37]. - The retail sales of gold and silver jewelry grew by 6.1% year-on-year in June 2025, indicating robust demand in the jewelry market [44]. Consumer Behavior - The report notes that online retail channels performed slightly better than the overall retail market, with a 6.0% year-on-year growth in online sales of physical goods in the first half of 2025 [43]. - The demand for sports and entertainment products remains strong, with a year-on-year growth of 22.2% in the first half of 2025 [44].

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on profitability due to slower employee efficiency improvements and the impact of tariffs, but maintains a strong order book and is expanding its customer base, leading to a strong medium to long-term outlook [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company's revenue increased by 2.9% to $444 million, with manufacturing revenue rising by 2.5% to $433 million, and shipment volume up by 4.1% to 15.4 million pairs. The average selling price decreased by 1.7% to $28.2 per pair [1]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecast, expecting net profits of $169 million, $183 million, and $201 million for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -1%, 9%, and 10% respectively, corresponding to a PE of 9X for 2025 and 8X for 2026 [1][2]. Production Capacity and Challenges - Production ramp-up in Indonesia and the Philippines has been slower than expected due to insufficient employee efficiency, leading to some products being produced in Vietnam, which has increased production costs [2]. - The company is accelerating the construction of its factory in Indonesia, now expected to be completed in 2026, one year earlier than initially planned, and is expanding production around its existing factory in Vietnam [2]. Customer Orders and Market Position - The company has a strong order certainty for Q4 2025 and is planning to initiate 2026 order planning in Q3. It is also progressing with new customer collaborations, including two new sports clients and one luxury client expected to be developed in 2026 [1][2]. - The company is recognized as a leading manufacturer in the sports fashion footwear sector, with stable core customer orders and high product barriers, indicating strong medium to long-term certainty despite short-term challenges [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Insights - The company is a leading high-end footwear manufacturer with a strong design and development capability, benefiting from scarce production capacity in Southeast Asia. It has established deep partnerships with renowned international brands such as Nike, Balenciaga, Prada, and UGG, covering a diverse range of athletic, luxury, fashion, and casual brands. The average selling price (ASP) for 2024 is projected to be $28.4, significantly above industry standards, with a diversified production layout that is rare in the market [1][4] - Despite external disruptions such as tariffs, the company has secured a robust order book for Q1-3, with expectations for improved order visibility in Q4 due to positive developments in US-China trade negotiations. The company anticipates maintaining mid-single-digit growth in shipment volume for the year, with ASP remaining stable [2][4] - The company is accelerating its capacity expansion, particularly in Indonesia and Bangladesh, with expectations of short-term fluctuations in profit margins due to new factory ramp-up and employee training. However, the long-term growth trend remains positive [3][4] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2027 are as follows: $1.545 billion in 2024, $1.621 billion in 2025 (up 4.94%), $1.743 billion in 2026 (up 7.48%), and $1.867 billion in 2027 (up 7.12%). Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be $171.1 million in 2024, $165.1 million in 2025 (down 3.47%), $184.9 million in 2026 (up 11.98%), and $204.4 million in 2027 (up 10.56%) [5][11] - The company is expected to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 70% in 2025, with a commitment to a $60 million share buyback or special dividend, resulting in a dividend yield of 11% [4][11]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the recent easing of trade tensions between China and the U.S., with both countries canceling 91% of their respective tariffs, which has led to a positive market reaction and increased investor expectations for improved trade conditions [1][2] - Despite the temporary relief from tariffs, companies in Guangdong are aware of the ongoing uncertainties in international trade and are shifting focus towards expanding domestic demand and diversifying their business strategies [1][2][4] - Many foreign trade companies in Guangdong are actively exploring new growth avenues, particularly through live-streaming e-commerce, to tap into the vast domestic consumer market [4][21] Group 2 - Guangdong's foreign trade enterprises, once thriving on international orders, are now facing significant challenges due to rising tariffs and trade protectionism, leading to a sharp decline in orders and profit margins [9][12][14] - Companies like DELUX and SHINECON are transitioning from OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer) to creating their own brands, recognizing the need to move up the value chain and establish brand value in response to the changing market dynamics [13][20] - The rise of live-streaming e-commerce has provided a new sales channel for these companies, allowing them to engage directly with consumers and achieve significant sales growth, with some reporting monthly sales increases of 20% [21][28][30] Group 3 - The article highlights the transformation of companies like SHINECON and OneOdio, which have successfully leveraged live-streaming platforms like Douyin (TikTok) to boost their sales, with SHINECON achieving sales of nearly 20 million yuan during the 618 shopping festival [28][29] - The shift towards domestic markets and the adoption of innovative sales strategies reflect a broader trend among Guangdong's foreign trade companies to adapt to the evolving economic landscape and consumer preferences [20][30] - The overall sentiment among these companies is one of resilience and adaptability, as they prepare for future uncertainties while capitalizing on the opportunities presented by the domestic market [1][14][30]