Workflow
产能拓展
icon
Search documents
九兴控股(01836):点评报告:产能稀缺订单充沛,加快产能拓展蓄力长期成长
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-07-02 14:58
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Insights - The company is a leading high-end footwear manufacturer with a strong design and development capability, benefiting from scarce production capacity in Southeast Asia. It has established deep partnerships with renowned international brands such as Nike, Balenciaga, Prada, and UGG, covering a diverse range of athletic, luxury, fashion, and casual brands. The average selling price (ASP) for 2024 is projected to be $28.4, significantly above industry standards, with a diversified production layout that is rare in the market [1][4] - Despite external disruptions such as tariffs, the company has secured a robust order book for Q1-3, with expectations for improved order visibility in Q4 due to positive developments in US-China trade negotiations. The company anticipates maintaining mid-single-digit growth in shipment volume for the year, with ASP remaining stable [2][4] - The company is accelerating its capacity expansion, particularly in Indonesia and Bangladesh, with expectations of short-term fluctuations in profit margins due to new factory ramp-up and employee training. However, the long-term growth trend remains positive [3][4] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2027 are as follows: $1.545 billion in 2024, $1.621 billion in 2025 (up 4.94%), $1.743 billion in 2026 (up 7.48%), and $1.867 billion in 2027 (up 7.12%). Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be $171.1 million in 2024, $165.1 million in 2025 (down 3.47%), $184.9 million in 2026 (up 11.98%), and $204.4 million in 2027 (up 10.56%) [5][11] - The company is expected to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 70% in 2025, with a commitment to a $60 million share buyback or special dividend, resulting in a dividend yield of 11% [4][11]